Ocean Acidification

Regional ocean models enable generation of computationally-affordable and regionally-tailored \ ensembles of near-term forecasts and long-term projections of sufficient resolution to serve marine resource management. Climate change, however, has created marine resource challenges, such as shifting stock distributions, that cut across domestic and international management boundaries and have pushed regional modeling efforts toward “coastwide” approaches. Here we present and evaluate a multidecadal hindcast with a Northeast Pacific (NEP) regional implementation of the Modular Ocean Model version 6 with sea ice and biogeochemistry that extends from the Chukchi Sea to the Baja California Peninsula at 10-km horizontal resolution (MOM6-COBALT-NEP10k, or “NEP10k”). This domain includes an Arctic-adjacent system with a broad shallow shelf seasonally covered by sea ice (the Eastern Bering Sea, EBS), a sub-Arctic system with upwelling in the Alaska Gyre and predominant downwelling winds and large freshwater forcing along the coast (the Gulf of Alaska, GoA), and a temperate, eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem (the California Current Ecosystem, CCE). The coastwide model was able to recreate seasonal and cross-ecosystem contrasts in numerous ecosystem-critical properties including temperature, salinity, inorganic nutrients, oxygen, carbonate saturation states, and chlorophyll. Spatial consistency between modeled quantities and observations generally extended to plankton ecosystems, though small to moderate biases were also apparent. Fidelity with observed zooplankton biomass, for example, was limited to first-order seasonal and cross-system contrasts. Temporally, simulated monthly surface and bottom temperature anomalies in coastal regions (< 500m deep) closely matched estimates from data-assimilative ocean reanalyses. Performance, however, was reduced in some nearshore regions coarsely resolved by the model’s 10-km resolution grid, and the time series of satellite-based chlorophyll anomaly estimates proved more difficult to match than temperature. System-specific ecosystem indicators were also assessed. In the EBS, NEP10k robustly matched observed variations, including recent large declines, in the area of the summer bottom water “cold pool” (< 2 °C) which exerts a profound influence on EBS fisheries. In the GoA, the simulation captured patterns of sea surface height variability and variations in thermal, oxygen and acidification risk associated with local modes of inter-annual to decadal climate variability. In the CCE, the simulation robustly captured variations in upwelling indices and coastal water masses, though discrepancies in the latter were evident in the Southern California Bight. Enhanced model resolution may reduce such discrepancies, but any benefits must be carefully weighed against computational costs given the intended use of this system for ensemble predictions and projections. Meanwhile, the demonstrated NEP10k skill level herein, particularly in recreating cross-ecosystem contrasts and the time variation of ecosystem indicators over multiple decades, suggests considerable immediate utility for coastwide retrospective and predictive applications.