Posts Tagged 'modeling'

Prediction of pH value by multi-classification in the Weizhou Island area

Ocean acidification is changing the chemical environment on which marine life depends. It causes a decrease in seawater pH and changes the water quality parameters of seawater. Changes in water quality parameters may affect pH, a key indicator for assessing ocean acidification. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the correlation between pH and various water quality parameters. In this paper, several water quality parameters with potential correlation with pH are investigated, and multiple linear regression, softmax regression, and support vector machine are used to perform multi-classification. Most importantly, experimental data were collected from Weizhou Island, China. The classification results show that the pH has a strong correlation with salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The prediction accuracy of the classification is good, and the correlation with dissolved oxygen is the most significant. The prediction accuracies of the three methods for multi-classifiers based on the above three factors reach 87.01%, 87.77%, and 89.04%, respectively.

Continue reading ‘Prediction of pH value by multi-classification in the Weizhou Island area’

Arctic sensitivity? Suitable habitat for benthic taxa is surprisingly robust to climate change

Arctic marine ecosystems are often assumed to be highly vulnerable to ongoing climate change, and are expected to undergo significant shifts in structure and function. Community shifts in benthic fauna are likely to result from changes in key physico-chemical drivers, such as ocean warming, but there is little ecological data on most Arctic species to support any specific predictions as to how vulnerable they are, or how future communities may be structured. We used a species distribution modeling approach (MaxEnt) to project changes over the 21st century in suitable habitat area for different species of benthic fauna by combining presence observations from the OBIS database with environmental data from a coupled climate-ocean model (SINMOD). Projected mean % habitat losses over taxonomic groups were small (0–11%), and no significant differences were found between Arctic, boreal, or Arcto-boreal groups, or between calcifying and non-calcifying groups. However, suitable habitat areas for 14 of 78 taxa were projected a change by over 20%, and several of these taxa are characteristic and/or habitat-forming fauna on some Arctic shelves, suggesting a potential for significant ecosystem impacts. These results highlight the weakness of general statements regarding vulnerability of taxa on biogeographic or presumed physiological grounds, and suggest that more basic biological data on Arctic taxa are needed for improved projections of ecosystem responses to climate change.

Continue reading ‘Arctic sensitivity? Suitable habitat for benthic taxa is surprisingly robust to climate change’

Deconvolving the long-term impacts of ocean acidification and warming on coral biomineralisation

Highlights

• Evaluation of temperature and pH effects in coral carbonate chemistry over 1939-2013.

• Coral calcifying fluid pH influenced by both, seawater pH and temperature.

• Temperature principal influence on calcifying fluid pH on seasonal scales.

• Long-term changes in calcifying fluid pH mainly influenced by seawater pH.

• Decline in carbonate ion and calcification consistent with ocean acidification.

Abstract

Identifying the long-term effects of ocean acidification (OA) and global warming on coral calcification has proven elusive yet has major implications for the continuing viability of coral reefs in the face of climate change. Here we address this question using seasonally and annually resolved boron proxies (11B/10B and B/Ca) of calcifying fluid (cf) pHcf and carbonate ion concentrations ([CO]cf) preserved in a long-lived Porites coral from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). From 1939 to 2013 we find that the coral pHcf closely followed the decline in seawater pH of ∼0.1 units, but at a reduced rate of ∼60%, indicative of biological buffering. Of the decline in pHcf ∼82% is attributed to OA and ∼17% to the ∼0.5 °C long-term warming observed over this period. This long-term warming induced change in pHcf is consistent with the much larger seasonally modulated changes in pHcf where ∼4 to 6 °C seasonal changes in temperatures are accompanied by relatively large antithetic ∼0.1 changes in pHcf. Furthermore, we find that although the supply of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the coral cf has remained at constant elevated levels of ∼1.5 × seawater, there has been a significant long-term decline (4 to 11%) in the [CO]cf, due primarily to the OA-induced change in pHcf. This decline in [CO]cf, a critical parameter controlling calcification, is thus likely responsible for the ∼15% decline in coral calcification observed since 1939 and across the GBR generally.

Continue reading ‘Deconvolving the long-term impacts of ocean acidification and warming on coral biomineralisation’

The mass impacts on chemosynthetic primary producers: potential implications on anammox communities and their consequences

The potential of a mass asteroid impact on Earth to disturb the chemosynthetic communities at global scale is discussed. Special emphasis is made on the potential influence on anammox communities and their implications in the nitrogen biogeochemical cycle. According to our preliminary estimates, anammox communities could be seriously affected as a consequence of global cooling and the large process of acidification usually associated with the occurrence of this kind of event. The scale of affectations could vary in a scenario like the Chicxulub as a function of the amount of soot, depth of the water column and the deposition rate for sulphates assumed in each case. The most severe affectations take place where the amount of soot and sulphates produced during the event is higher and the scale of time of settlements for sulphates is short, of the order of 10 h. In this extreme case, the activity of anammox is considerably reduced, a condition that may persist for several years after the impact. Furthermore, the impact of high levels of other chemical compounds like sulphates and nitrates associated with the occurrence of this kind of event are also discussed.

Continue reading ‘The mass impacts on chemosynthetic primary producers: potential implications on anammox communities and their consequences’

Simulating and quantifying multiple natural subsea CO2 seeps at Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, Italy) as a proxy for potential leakage from subseabed carbon storage sites

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a potentially significant mitigation option for the ongoing climate warming. Natural CO2 release sites serve as natural laboratories to study subsea CO2 leakage in order to identify suitable analytical methods and numerical models to develop best-practice procedures for the monitoring of subseabed storage sites. We present a new model of bubble (plume) dynamics, advection-dispersion of dissolved CO2, and carbonate chemistry. The focus is on a medium-sized CO2 release from 294 identified small point sources around Panarea Island (South-East Tyrrhenian Sea, Aeolian Islands, Italy) in water depths of about 40–50 m. This study evaluates how multiple CO2 seep sites generate a temporally variable plume of dissolved CO2. The model also allows the overall flow rate of CO2 to be estimated based on field measurements of pH. Simulations indicate a release of ∼6900 t y–1 of CO2 for the investigated area and highlight an important role of seeps located at >20 m water depth in the carbon budget of the Panarea offshore gas release system. This new transport-reaction model provides a framework for understanding potential future leaks from CO2 storage sites.

Continue reading ‘Simulating and quantifying multiple natural subsea CO2 seeps at Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, Italy) as a proxy for potential leakage from subseabed carbon storage sites’

Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle

The attribution of anthropogenically forced trends in the climate system requires an understanding of when and how such signals emerge from natural variability. We applied time-of-emergence diagnostics to a large ensemble of an Earth system model, which provides both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We found emergence timescales that ranged from less than a decade to more than a century, a consequence of the time lag between the chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as the impacts of acidification on the calcium carbonate pump (10 years for the globally integrated signal and 9–18 years for regionally integrated signals) and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean (14 years globally and 13–26 years regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean’s physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 years globally and 27–85 years regionally).

Continue reading ‘Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle’

Recent pace of change in human impact on the world’s ocean

Humans interact with the oceans in diverse and profound ways. The scope, magnitude, footprint and ultimate cumulative impacts of human activities can threaten ocean ecosystems and have changed over time, resulting in new challenges and threats to marine ecosystems. A fundamental gap in understanding how humanity is affecting the oceans is our limited knowledge about the pace of change in cumulative impact on ocean ecosystems from expanding human activities – and the patterns, locations and drivers of most significant change. To help address this, we combined high resolution, annual data on the intensity of 14 human stressors and their impact on 21 marine ecosystems over 11 years (2003–2013) to assess pace of change in cumulative impacts on global oceans, where and how much that pace differs across the ocean, and which stressors and their impacts contribute most to those changes. We found that most of the ocean (59%) is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particular due to climate change but also from fishing, land-based pollution and shipping. Nearly all countries saw increases in cumulative impacts in their coastal waters, as did all ecosystems, with coral reefs, seagrasses and mangroves at most risk. Mitigation of stressors most contributing to increases in overall cumulative impacts is urgently needed to sustain healthy oceans.

Continue reading ‘Recent pace of change in human impact on the world’s ocean’


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OA-ICC HIGHLIGHTS

Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

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