Posts Tagged 'modeling'

Recent history of surface ocean acidification extremes that compound marine heatwaves

Published 25 August 2026 Science Leave a Comment
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Compound extremes are of concern for ocean health, such as when ocean acidification extremes (OAX) and marine heatwaves (MHW) co-occur. These compound events (OAX∩MHW) may amplify stress beyond the impact of each driver alone, yet their historical distribution remains poorly quantified. We used an observation-based product (OceanSODA-ETHZ) to investigate surface ocean OAX∩MHW from 1982 to 2024. OAX and MHW are defined when detrended surface hydrogen ion concentration and sea surface temperature exceed their 95th percentiles. Events show distinct spatial and temporal patterns: they occur roughly four times more often than by chance in the low- to mid-latitudes, but are rare in the eastern tropical Pacific and the high latitudes. They occur primarily in summer and show strong variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Most events are small ( <1⁢06 km2) and brief (1 month), but several are exceptional, including: the Blob (2015) in the northeastern Pacific (12.6 ×1⁢06 km2), the North Atlantic marine heatwave lasting nearly a year (2023–2024), and the most intense event off the Western Australian coast (2011). Mechanistically, OAX∩MHW occur when warming-induced increases in [H+] are not offset by a reduction in dissolved inorganic carbon that typically accompanies MHW. This is typical of the permanently stratified low-to-mid latitude oceans, where the seasonal cycle of [H+] is controlled by temperature. By characterizing past compound extremes and improving our understanding of individual events, we highlight conditions that may lead to future ecosystems being at risk.

Plain Language Summary

This study examines the recent history of “compound extremes” in the ocean, where marine heatwaves and ocean acidification extremes occur simultaneously. Using observational data from 1982 to 2024, we find that these compound events are happening more frequently than would be expected by chance, particularly in the low- to mid-latitudes. Conversely, they are rare in the eastern equatorial Pacific and polar regions. These compound events are most prevalent during summer and are influenced primarily by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. While most of these events are relatively small and short-lived, there have been a few exceptionally large, long, and intense occurrences. Some of the most notable events include: “The Blob,” in the northeastern Pacific in 2015; the longest-lasting event that occurred in the Atlantic Ocean from 2023 to 2024; and the most intense event that occurred off Western Australia in 2011. These compound extremes happen in areas where the warming from a marine heatwave also leads to an increase in ocean acidity. This phenomenon is most common in regions of the ocean that are permanently stratified, meaning they have distinct layers of water that do not mix well.

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Field-deployable full-range underwater pH sensor using a polyprotic SERS probe

Published 20 August 2026 Science Leave a Comment
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Accurate measurement of pH in underwater environments is essential for oceanographic research, environmental monitoring and subsurface exploration. However, conventional electrode-based sensors are limited by drift, corrosion and narrow operational ranges, particularly under extreme pH and high-salinity conditions. Here we present a fibre-optic surface-enhanced Raman scattering platform that enables full-range (pH 0–14) underwater pH sensing using the polyprotic molecular probe 2-amino-5-mercapto-1,3,4-thiadiazole. This probe exhibits 6 pH-dependent conformations, generating distinct surface-enhanced Raman scattering fingerprints that are decoded via machine learning for accurate, drift-resistant pH prediction with errors below 0.2 pH units. The sensor demonstrates high salt tolerance (up to 1 M NaCl), rapid reversibility and robust photostability, and can be deployed remotely at depths of up to 10 m in seawater and groundwater. By establishing a versatile optical strategy based on polyprotic molecular fingerprints, this work expands the capabilities of environmental monitoring and subsurface exploration in challenging aquatic environments.

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Persistence of Arctic Ocean acidification under negative emissions

Published 14 August 2026 Science Leave a Comment
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Although net negative emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are essential to meet climate targets, little is known about how declining atmospheric CO2 levels will affect ocean acidification. Here, by analysing the acidity ([H+]) and corrosivity to aragonite (ΩArag) in eight Earth system models that made simulations under rising then falling CO2 levels, we identify the Arctic as a hotspot for delayed reversibility of ocean acidification. Under falling CO2, Arctic surface waters remain comparatively more acidic, and aragonite-corrosive conditions (ΩArag < 1) persist until atmospheric CO2 drops ~120 ppm below the threshold at which they first appeared under rising CO2. This hysteresis arises from the erosion of the natural surface-layer deficit in dissolved inorganic carbon, initially maintained by sea ice limiting air–sea gas exchange and not fully restored as sea ice recovers during CO2 decline. Thus, the Arctic Ocean experiences not only the greatest acidification but also the most delayed benefits from negative emissions.

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Method for correcting the temperature dependence of field-type glass electrode pH sensors

Published 14 August 2026 Science Leave a Comment
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Seawater pH measurement is essential for monitoring ocean acidification and its biogeochemical impacts. Glass electrode pH sensors are widely used for in situ applications due to their ease of operation, low power consumption, and no reagent requirements. However, their accuracy can be affected by temperature-dependent effects, particularly those associated with the internal reference solution. Conventional calibration methods based on the Nernst response do not explicitly account for temperature-induced variations in the internal solution, which may lead to systematic bias under conditions with large temperature gradients. In this study, a correction method is proposed to address temperature-dependent errors by modeling the internal pH (pHin). The model incorporates two primary temperature-dependent contributions: the intrinsic temperature dependence of the phosphate buffer and potential shifts caused by activity changes in saturated KCl. These effects are combined through the electrode response factor (fR), defined as the ratio of the observed electrode slope to the theoretical Nernst slope, to estimate pHin as a function of temperature and correct measured pH values to a reference temperature of 25 °C. Application of the method to vertical seawater profiles demonstrated a reduction in deviation from colorimetric reference measurements. The corrected results showed reduced temperature-dependent bias across depth. This approach provides a practical framework for improving the reliability of in situ glass electrode pH measurements under varying thermal conditions. The proposed method addresses equilibrium temperature-dependent effects of the internal solution but does not explicitly account for transient hysteresis, pressure effects, or long-term sensor drift.

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Tracing the imprints of dual stressors: eco-physiological and genotoxic insights from Mystus gulio under acidification and warming scenario

Published 10 August 2026 Science Closed
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Global warming has caused a rise in ocean temperature and acidification, which collectively wreak havoc on marine animals. However, the combined ramifications of these stressors on energy metabolism, oxidative balance, and DNA integrity remain inadequately studied in teleosts. The present study aims to unravel the combined effects of warming (34°C) and acidification (pH 7.7) on energetic balance, antioxidant defense, and DNA stability in Mystus gulio at two intervals (15th and 45th day). Furthermore, the Effect Addition model was used to disentangle potential additive or non-additive effects of the combined stressors. Elevated temperature and acidification induced a marked energetic imbalance, as mirrored by suppressed ingestion and absorption rates, reduced scope for growth, and elevated excretion. Oxidative stress biomarkers revealed significant upregulation of SOD, CAT, and GST under combined treatment, which ultimately led to augmented lipid peroxidation. Genotoxic assessment delineated progressive upsurges in tail DNA (%) and olive tail moment, indicating compromised genomic stability. The integrated biomarker response consisted of six parameters, RR, ER, SOD, CAT, GST, and LPO, further corroborating that elevated temperature, alone and in combination with acidification, posed the highest cumulative physiological burden. Furthermore, the model assessment indicated that the interaction between warming and acidification varied among different biomarkers. Collectively, these findings corroborate that concurrent thermal and low pH perturbations destabilise physiological processes, oxidative instability, and DNA damage, which may undermine growth potential and jeopardise population structure and destabilise trophic relationships. The present study provides a mechanistic understanding of the impacts of multiple stressors and offers a robust integrative framework to predict fish vulnerability under future climate-driven oceanic vicissitudes.

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Trends and persistence in ocean acidification as measured by station ALOHA

Published 6 August 2026 Science Closed
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Ocean acidification, largely driven by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide, is reflected in a sustained decline in seawater pH. This paper examines the dynamics of surface-ocean pH at Station ALOHA over the period 1985–2024 using fractional integration methods, which allow for a flexible characterisation of persistence and trend behaviour. The differencing parameter is estimated under alternative assumptions concerning the error term, namely white-noise and autocorrelated Bloomfield disturbances, and recursive estimation is used to assess the evolution of the relevant parameters over time. The results show a negative and statistically significant time trend in both the original and logged pH series. The estimates of the differencing parameter are positive and significantly different from zero in all cases, providing evidence of long-memory behaviour. Under white-noise errors, the estimate of the differencing parameter is 0.89 and the unit-root hypothesis cannot be rejected, whereas allowing for autocorrelation yields an estimate of approximately 0.55, implying mean reversion with long-lasting but transitory effects of shocks. Recursive estimates further indicate that both persistence and the magnitude of the negative pH trend have increased over time. These findings suggest that pH dynamics at Station ALOHA are characterised by a persistent decline and slow adjustment following disturbances, highlighting the importance of long-term ocean monitoring and modelling approaches that account for fractional dependence. Nevertheless, the results should be interpreted with caution because the analysis is based on a single long-term record combining observational and reconstructed data.

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Ocean acidification as a planetary signal linking Earth system memory to deep-time lithosphere–ocean geochemical interactions

Published 5 August 2026 Science Closed
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Highlights

  • First ever reinterpretation of ocean acidification as a planetary-scale signal encoding Earth system disequilibrium.
  • Links rapid surface pH decline to deep-ocean, sedimentary, and lithospheric memory.
  • Reveals a rate mismatch that overwhelms geological buffering despite modest pH magnitude.
  • Identifies CCD shoaling as the key integrator of short-term forcing and deep-time response.
  • Synthesis elevates ocean acidification to a diagnostic of long-term carbon cycle stability.

Abstract

Ocean acidification (OA) is widely recognized as a defining chemical signature of the Anthropocene ocean, yet it is still predominantly framed as a near-surface ecological stressor. Here, we advance a planetary-scale reinterpretation of OA as an information-bearing signal that links rapid anthropogenic carbon forcing to deep-time lithosphere–ocean geochemical interactions and long-lived Earth system memory. Observations since the late 20th century document a persistent, spatially heterogeneous decline in global surface-ocean pH, corresponding to a ∼30–35% increase in hydrogen ion concentration, driven by sustained air–sea CO2 uptake. Projected pH declines of 0.3–0.4 units by 2100 under high-emission scenarios imply rates of change at least an order of magnitude faster than most natural variations recorded in the geological archive. We synthesize carbonate system thermodynamics, carbonate compensation depth dynamics, sedimentary proxy evidence, and Earth system modeling to demonstrate how small, rapid surface perturbations propagate vertically, trigger widespread carbonate undersaturation, and imprint durable stratigraphic and geochemical signatures through sediment dissolution, altered burial fluxes, and delayed alkalinity restoration. Comparison with hyperthermal events, particularly the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, reveals that the uniqueness of modern OA lies not in magnitude alone but in an unprecedented rate mismatch that overwhelms geological buffering mechanisms. Furthermore, we identify critical knowledge gaps regarding irreversibility, sedimentary signal emergence, and threshold behavior under rapid forcing. Overall, this study reframes OA as a planetary-scale diagnostic of whole-Earth system disequilibrium, revealing its fundamental significance for evaluating long-term carbon cycle stability, Earth system resilience, and the enduring geological legacy of anthropogenic emissions beyond human timescales.

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Variation and influencing factors of water alkalinity in estuary-bay waters of Zhanjiang Bay, China

Published 27 July 2026 Science Closed
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This study investigated the spatial distribution, seasonal variation, and drivers of surface seawater alkalinity (Alk) in Zhanjiang Bay (ZJB) using high-frequency seasonal sampling in the summers and winters of 2023. Surface Alk ranged from 525.3 to 2213.3 μmol·L−1, with mean values of 1373.1 ± 420.9 μmol·L−1 (summer, n = 28) and 1612.3 ± 343.7 μmol·L−1 (winter, n = 20). Spatially, Alk increased progressively from the estuary to the inner bay and further to the bay mouth, reflecting a typical dilution gradient. Correlation analyses showed that summer Alk was positively correlated with salinity (ρ = 0.706, p < 0.001), indicating that salinity changes associated with conservative mixing were a dominant control, whereas the weaker winter correlation (ρ = 0.473, p < 0.001) suggested that biological processes may play a more important role. Tidal forcing was significantly associated with diurnal Alk variations, particularly in the estuary and inner bay. In the estuary, high Alk occurred during high tide, consistent with tidal mixing; in the inner bay, elevated Alk was observed during low tide, suggesting a possible tidal pumping effect. These findings provide baseline data on Alk dynamics in a subtropical estuarine bay and contribute to understanding the carbonate system and buffering capacity in similar coastal systems. However, because measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon and pCO2 were unavailable, a quantitative assessment of carbon sink capacity requires further investigation.

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Seawater acidification and bubble plume dispersion from accidental subsea CO₂ pipeline rupture: a multiphase CFD study

Published 24 July 2026 Science Closed
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The ecology and maritime traffic safety would be at risk if a CO₂ reservoir or transmission pipeline were to leak. To address this need, multiphase Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models were developed using ANSYS Fluent to predict these coupled processes. The 3D Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model has been developed for validation and the 2D model for predicting the 50m case. The physical and chemical processes involved, such as buoyancy, turbulence, and gas dissolution kinetics, are all considered. The mass transfer coefficient is estimated using the Hughmark correlation. Seawater temperature and salinity are used for estimating dissociation and Henry’s Law constant. The 3D model is validated with the QICS and Hauser Tank Experiments. Hypothetical CO2 release from High Island 10L was simulated and compared to prior work. Findings indicate that the water column can fully mitigate a CO2 release of 35 kg/s in 50 m of water due to CO2 absorption in seawater during ascent. The CFD simulations offer understanding of environmental impact including bubble plume behavior, dissolution into the water column, and consequent changes in seawater pH and pCO₂ and a framework for evaluating CO2 leak impacts on marine environments in the Gulf of Mexico.

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Water mass-driven variations in primary production and bacterial respiration during the spring bloom in the Fram Strait

Published 23 July 2026 Science Closed
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Highlights

  • Remote sensing indicates declining bloom in cold and developing bloom in warm water
  • Primary production peaks in polar and arctic surface water masses
  • Bacterial production is coupled to primary production despite thermal sensitivity
  • Oxygen-based community respiration is highest in warmer water masses
  • Oxygen-based and INT-based respiration estimates differ by an order of magnitude

Abstract

The Fram Strait is the primary oceanic gateway to the Arctic Ocean and has highly dynamic oceanographic conditions. Oceanographic conditions can shape community compositions, which is increasingly shown using molecular studies, but rate measurements remain scarce, especially for respiration in the Arctic Ocean. Here, we assessed primary production (PP), bacterial production (BP), bacterial abundances (BA), and community respiration (CR) using Winkler titrations and in vivo Iodo-Nitro-Tetrazolium (INT) reduction within the upper 50 m across water masses of the Fram Strait that had varying bloom conditions in spring 2021. We complemented in situ observations with remote sensing of sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (SSC) to infer bloom phenology in warm (θ>2°C), intermediate (2>θ>0°C), and cold (θ<0°C) waters using remote sensing machine-learning. In the cold, nutrient-rich surface waters, a subsiding spring bloom was associated with elevated PP, BP, and BA alongside a high temperature sensitivity (Q10) that indicates active microbial turnover. In contrast, the warm Atlantic-influenced waters exhibit a relatively lower PP but moderate cell-specific BP, suggesting bacterial maintenance metabolism under pre-bloom conditions. Notably, bacterial respiration (BR) estimates differed by 5- to 80-fold between the Winkler and in vivo INT methods. Although the true BR likely lies between these estimates, our results highlight the substantial microbial activity and underscore the need for more accurate BR measurements in Arctic studies.

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Distinct polar carbon regimes reveal hemispheric asymmetry in surface ocean pCO₂ regulation

Published 17 July 2026 Science Closed
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Polar oceans play a major role in the global carbon cycle, absorbing a substantial fraction of human-emitted carbon dioxide and helping regulate Earth’s climate. Extreme conditions and seasonal sea-ice limit in situ observations, leaving major uncertainties in how carbon exchange varies across these regions. Consequently, the processes controlling surface ocean carbon at high latitudes remain poorly understood. Here we demonstrate that polar oceans exhibit a pronounced hemispheric asymmetry in the drivers of surface carbon variability. By combining machine learning with a data-driven regionalization of biogeochemical provinces, we reconstruct surface carbon patterns across both polar oceans over the period 1998-2022 and identify their dominant controls. Variability in the Southern Ocean is primarily governed by non-thermal processes linked to biological activity and wind-driven mixing, whereas in the Arctic Ocean thermodynamic forcing dominates in open waters and freshwater-driven stratification shapes the central basin. Polar oceans therefore do not operate as a single carbon regime. Instead, distinct mechanisms governing carbon cycling in each hemisphere are associated with opposing long-term pCO₂ trajectories, with weak or negative trends across much of the Southern Ocean but widespread increases throughout the Arctic.

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Impact of climate change on Portuguese marine coastal environments

Published 9 July 2026 Science Closed
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The potential impacts of climate change on marine habitats were assessed using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections of environmental parameters that included sea surface temperature (SST), pH, salinity, planktonic productivity (PP) and current strength (CS). The analysis was conducted separately for three distinct oceanographic regions of the Portuguese coastline (North, Centre and South) up to the middle of the century. Temporal trends in environmental variables were assessed using time series analyses. Overall, changes expected up to the middle of the century include increasing SST and PP, decreasing pH and salinity, and slight increases in CS. Spatial–temporal analyses revealed high present–future environmental overlay for most environmental variables. However, changes in individual environmental variables cumulatively resulted in statistically significant changes in environmental similarity. Still, the projected changes are not expected to exceed ecological thresholds, above which they would be likely to alter species’ habitat suitability or to result in species distribution shifts. Anomaly analyses suggest that present–future shifts do not surpass 1/5 (pH, PP, CS) or 2/3 (salinity) of the unit, regardless of projection and area, while SST anomalies ranged from −1.1 °C to 1.1 °C. Compared to IPCC large-scale predictions for Atlantic/Mediterranean regions, the intensity of shifts on the Portuguese coast may be lower.

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Study on the mechanical characteristics of the stress relaxation in the carbonate rock after high-temperature acidification

Published 3 July 2026 Science Closed
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To elucidate the mechanism by which acidification influences wellbore stability in deep reservoir formations, this study investigates the rheological and mechanical behaviors of the carbonate rock subjected to high-temperature acid etching. A novel experimental system was developed to characterize the stress relaxation behavior of the acid-etched carbonate rock, and the characteristics of the stress relaxation curves under various acid etching conditions and strain levels were systematically analyzed. Combined with Burgers model and the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, the evolution of rheological parameters of the carbonate rock under different acid etching regimes was quantitatively evaluated. The results indicate that the acid-etched carbonate rock exhibit significant rheological mechanical properties due to the presence of developed microcracks and complex pore structures. Under the identical acid etching duration and temperature, the initial stress, residual stress, and time required for stress relaxation stabilization all increase with increasing the strain level. Overall, the stress relaxation magnitude prior to the core fracture ranges from 15 to 25 MPa, and the stabilization time for the core stress relaxation falls between 5 and 7 h. The stress relaxation behavior of the acid-etched carbonate core is well described by the Burgers model. At fixed strain levels and temperatures, the instantaneous shear modulus  decreases linearly with extended acid etching time, whereas the instantaneous shear modulus  and the viscosity coefficients  and  exhibit exponential degradation. The final variation ranges of the key rheological parameters are determined as follows: instantaneous shear modulus  ranges from 5 × 103 to 2 × 104 MPa, instantaneous shear modulus  ranges from 6 × 105 to 2 × 106 MPa, viscosity coefficient  ranges from 2 × 107 to 8 × 107 MPa h, and viscosity coefficient  ranges from 1 × 105 to 1.2 × 106 MPa h. Furthermore, the evolutionary equations correlating the global model fitting parameters with the porosity of acid-etched samples are established, using acid etching time as an intermediate variable. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of wellbore stability after acidification and the selection of acid fracturing completion methods of deep reservoirs.

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Assessing early oil industry awareness of the impacts of fossil fuels on coral reefs using a novel AI agent

Published 3 July 2026 Science Closed
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Global warming threatens to eradicate Earth’s tropical corals. As legal interventions addressing climate change expand, fossil fuel companies’ historical awareness of their products’ damaging effects is increasingly important. We searched historical documents using a large-language-model-based agent, finding that carbon majors were aware by the 1980s of prospective impacts of fossil fuels on corals from ocean acidification, marine heatwaves, sea-level rise, and intensified storms and later funded efforts downplaying such impacts.

Introduction

The world’s tropical coral reefs are under imminent threat of collapse from global warming. Living corals have declined by approximately 50% worldwide since the 1990s, with global warming now the greatest threat to future survival1. Global warming kills corals primarily through increased ocean temperatures and more frequent and intense marine heatwaves, which cause coral bleaching (loss of coral symbionts), exacerbated by ocean acidification (from increased carbon dioxide levels), which weakens coral health, and intensified storms (from increased sea surface temperatures), which physically destroy coral assemblages, all ultimately caused by fossil fuels1. Approximately one billion people worldwide depend directly on coral reefs for livelihoods, food security, and protection from storms and coastal erosion, and coral reefs provide shelter and nourishment to over 30% of the world’s named marine species2. Economically, coral reefs provide an estimated 10 trillion USD per year in ecosystem services, including tens of billions of dollars per year in coral reef tourism3, and potential efforts to restore reefs lost over the last decade alone have been estimated to cost around 1 trillion USD2. Mass coral bleaching and mortality from marine heatwaves driven by global warming is ongoing4. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts mortality of 70—90% of the world’s reef-building corals at global warming of 1.5 °C and mortality of more than 99% at 2 °C1.

Legal interventions may play a critical role in helping to protect the world’s coral reefs and associated ecosystems (for example, by securing funding for reef monitoring and rehabilitation) and in compensating affected communities for economic losses associated with climate-change-driven coral impacts. In this context, the history of fossil fuel industry awareness of the foreseeable impacts of climate change on coral reefs is highly relevant. Climate lawsuits against governments, fossil fuel producers, and other parties have expanded in number and sophistication over the past decade5 and have recently cited impacts on coral reefs6. Additionally, the 2024 and 2025 advisory opinions from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)7 and the International Court of Justice (ICJ)8 on climate change clarified, respectively, that greenhouse gases are marine pollutants under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and that best efforts to attain the 1.5 °C warming limit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement are legally binding on governments under international law, strengthening the basis for legal actions seeking to mitigate global warming and obtain reparations for damages. Research on the fossil fuel industry’s internal knowledge of global warming9, public-facing denial and minimization of the problem10,11, and false assurances to be solving it12 has clarified global warming as not only a scientific and technological problem but also one of corporate corruption subject to legal correction and remedy13. Such research has so far informed dozens of ongoing legal actions seeking industry accountability for climate change14.

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Erosion-driven delayed warming and marine stress prior to the end-Permian mass extinction

Published 30 June 2026 Science Closed
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The end-Permian mass extinction (EPME) presents an anomaly: intense global warming lags the onset of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE) by ~50,000 years, challenging the presumed link between carbon cycle perturbations and climate warming. Using biogeochemical modeling, Bayesian inversion, and multiple proxies, here we show that incorporating continental erosion as a forcing term into the hyperthermal models can resolve this decoupling. Enhanced erosion, likely resulting from the terrestrial die-off of vegetation, accelerates continental weathering, which buffers early carbon release and delays global warming. This process also increases riverine phosphorus export to the oceans, fostering gradual marine anoxia and preconditioning the oceans for the extinction event. With these findings, we present a coherent unifying scenario for the EPME environmental dynamics. Furthermore, our study refines the hyperthermal paradigm, offering implications for future climate scenarios.

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Will the Mediterranean sea be a cul-de-sac for marine gastropods under climate change?

Published 23 June 2026 Science Closed
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Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid transformation under climate change, yet the responses of many marine invertebrates remain vastly understudied. In particular, for many benthic gastropods there is a striking imbalance between their traditional appreciation by shell collectors—and, consequently, their consistent representation in Natural History Collections—and the limited attention they receive in ecological and conservation studies. Focusing on the northeastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean, the cowries Luria lurida, Naria spurca, Zonaria pyrum and the frog-shell Talisman scrobilator are emblematic examples of this knowledge gap, despite being frequently mentioned as species of conservation concern. Using long-term occurrence records spanning more than a century, we modelled past and present distributions of these species and explored their potential responses to future climate scenarios through a multi-temporal Species Distribution Modelling framework. Our results show that intermediate climatic conditions—both in time (2050–2060 vs. 2090–2100) and scenario intensity (moderate SSP2-4.5 versus high-emission SSP5-8.5)—may represent a critical transition phase, leading to habitat contractions without compensatory gains in newly emerging suitable areas. The Mediterranean Sea is expected to increasingly function as a cul-de-sac, with the dominant circulation patterns strongly limiting outward movements towards cooler regions for species relying on planktic larvae for dispersal. Furthermore, incorporating larval sensitivity to reduced pH suggests that large areas of the Atlantic Ocean may actually result unsuitable for larval persistence, substantially reducing the habitat effectively available for completion of the full life cycle; this highlights the need to account for connectivity, life-history constraints and juvenile-stage sensitivity when assessing climate-driven range shifts in shelled organisms with planktic larvae.

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A basin-wide assessment of pH changes in the Mediterranean Sea based on reanalysis products

Published 19 June 2026 Science Closed
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Ocean acidification, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, poses a growing threat to marine ecosystems and biogeochemical processes. The Mediterranean Sea, characterized by complex circulation patterns and distinct hydrographic sub-basins, represents a sensitive region for assessing basin-scale pH variability. However, long-term in situ pH observations remain spatially sparse and unevenly distributed, limiting the assessment of coherent spatiotemporal trends across the basin. Here, we present a basin-wide spatiotemporal assessment of pH trends in the Mediterranean using an 18-year biogeochemical reanalysis dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. Our analysis reveals a consistent vertical structuring of pH trends, with negative trends in surface waters and contrasting, often neutral to weakly positive tendencies at depth. The magnitude and vertical extent of these trends vary regionally and are closely linked to local circulation regimes, water-mass formation processes, and remineralization dynamics. In deep-water formation regions such as the Adriatic, Ionian, and Aegean Seas, negative pH trends extend throughout much of the water column, whereas in the Levantine Basin, mesoscale circulation structures confine pH changes primarily to a relatively thin surface layer. These results demonstrate that basin-scale analyses based on high-quality, publicly accessible biogeochemical reanalysis products, such as CMEMS, can provide a spatially integrated perspective on long-term pH variability, complementing existing observational records by bridging spatial and temporal gaps. The framework presented here offers a reproducible approach for systematically assessing depth and region resolved pH trends.

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Dialogue, inclusion, and adaptation in a remote marine sanctuary: evidence from Flower Garden Banks

Published 10 June 2026 Science Closed
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Interdisciplinary, stakeholder-engaged research is increasingly being used for managing climate change in social-ecological systems. We apply a Collaborative Adaptive Experimental Governance lens to the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, a remote, relatively pristine coral reef system ~130–190 km offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, where biodiversity protection coexists with recreation and offshore energy. We coupled participatory social science with climate and ecosystem modeling to inform dialogue with decision-makers and users. First, we generated scenarios using Community Earth System Model2-LE ocean temperature and aragonite saturation state to characterize warming and acidification; translated heat stress into a variability-based coral bleaching index; and projected demersal and pelagic fish biomass. We then conducted 37 semi-structured interviews (managers, oil and gas, commercial and recreational fisheries, dive operators, Non-governmental organizations, and science/education), employed multi-coder reliability, and triangulated findings with policy and legal documents. Results highlight the centrality of the Sanctuary Advisory Council in structuring inclusive dialogue, co-producing recommendations, and supporting outreach in distant coastal communities. Multi-level coordination among NOAA, the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council, and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management enabled boundary expansion and reconciled conservation with industry and fishing interests. Key barriers to adaptive responses include offshore remoteness and logistics, limited public awareness, funding constraints, trust deficits, and procedural delays; pressures that intersect with warming, acidification, and episodic hypoxia. Our study shows that remote marine protected areas can operationalize inclusive, experimental governance to align science and management, but sustained investment in monitoring, restoration capacity, boundary-spanning outreach, and cross-agency coordination is needed.

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Seasonal upwelling shapes coral reef community structure and photophysiology on the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica

Published 3 June 2026 Science Closed
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Reef-building corals form the calcium-carbonate frameworks that underpin tropical coral reefs, yet global coral cover has declined by ~50% in recent decades, due to marine heatwaves and other stressors. Identifying refugia environments, such as upwelling systems, that buffer stress, promote recovery, and enhance resilience by promoting physiological plasticity that supports thermotolerance is therefore critical. Here, we compared benthic community composition, coral percent cover, and photo-physiology between an upwelling location in the Gulf of Papagayo and a non-upwelling location in Sámara on the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. Waters in Papagayo were cooler, more acidic, and richer in chlorophyll a. Reefs at this location exhibited higher crustose coralline algae, higher sea urchin cover, and lower macroalgae cover, compared to Sámara. Papagayo also showed higher stony coral cover, driven by Pocillopora spp., while Sámara was dominated by massive, heat-tolerant Porites spp.. When significant, photophysiological measurements showed 9.7 – 44.5% higher photosynthetic efficiency (Fv’/Fm’) in Papagayo corals and 19.94 – 42.75 % higher maximum photosynthetic rates (Pmax) in Sámara corals. These results highlight how contrasting environmental regimes within a relatively small geographic area can shape distinct coral community compositions and photophysiological strategies, with implications for identifying areas of reef persistence or refugia.

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Upper-ocean variability of the marine carbonate system in the Northeast Pacific

Published 2 June 2026 Science Closed
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In the Northeast Pacific, the marine carbonate system’s variability across timescales is not well constrained. Here, we quantify observed seasonal and non-seasonal variability in Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and aragonite saturation state  Ω� and discuss potential drivers. We used three decades of observations from four Line P time series stations, the longest marine carbonate system time series in the Northeast Pacific (1990–2019). To gauge the spatial extent of the variability patterns, we used output from a global ocean model representing the observed period. In the Northeast Pacific, seasonal and non-seasonal pCO2 variability at 10 m was minimal, mostly damped by the opposing influence of DIC and temperature changes at both seasonal and interannual timescales. For DIC and Ω�, the seasonal cycle dominated total variability in the top 60–70 m, with mean-transect 10 m seasonal amplitudes of 35 ± 3 μmol kg−1 and 0.31 ± 0.04, respectively. In the upper 60–70 m, the magnitude of non-seasonal variability was at least half that of the seasonal variability for most variables. From five climate indices examined, we focused on the basin-scale Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) to investigate potential drivers of non-seasonal variability, with 20%–40% of the non-seasonal variability in DIC and Ω� associated to this index. In the Northeast Pacific, positive PDO periods were linked to a mean reduction in 10 m DIC of 5 μmol kg−1 and an increase in 10 m Ω� of 0.04 for each PDO unit increase, which could potentially reduce the occurrence and severity of ocean acidification events. The opposite could be expected during negative PDO periods.

Plain Language Summary

Using 30 years of observations from the Northeast Pacific, we characterized sources of variability for three marine carbonate system variables: , dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and the saturation state of aragonite (an common indicator of ocean acidification). The  seasonal and non-seasonal variability was minimal in the top 10 m. The seasonal cycle of DIC and aragonite saturation state was the major contributor to total variability in the top 60–70 m, and not detectable below. Also, in the top 70 m of the water column, up to 20%–40% of the DIC and aragonite saturation state non-seasonal variability was associated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO). The PDO is a statistics-derived index that captures variability patterns influencing the whole Pacific basin and has a positive and negative phase. We found that a warmer than usual upper water column in the Northeast Pacific during a positive PDO phase, potentially driven by reduced mixing, was linked to a lower DIC and higher values of aragonite saturation state. The opposite could be expected during negative PDO periods. Knowing the magnitude of natural variability in the marine carbonate system is important to identify the emergence of ocean acidification and other human-driven changes in the ocean.

Continue reading ‘Upper-ocean variability of the marine carbonate system in the Northeast Pacific’

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