Posts Tagged 'communitymodeling'

Modeling impact of varying pH due to carbondioxide on the dynamics of prey–predator species system

In this paper, we have considered a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate the effect of pH on prey–predator dynamics with Holling type II functional response. In the model, capture rate, handling time, growth rate and death rate are considered to be pH dependent. From the analysis of the model, it has been observed that as pH level goes below the normal tolerance limit of prey species then the equilibrium density of prey population decreases due to increase in capture rate and decrease in handling time by predator. Further, we have shown that as the growth rate of prey population decreases due to lowering of pH then the density of predator population also decreases and both the populations may tend to extinction if growth rate of prey population becomes negative due to lowering of pH on account of elevated carbondioxide concentration in the aquatic body. Moreover, it is noticed from the simulation that if the mortality of predator population increases because of decrease in pH level then the prey population gets advantage and in-turn their population increases.

Continue reading ‘Modeling impact of varying pH due to carbondioxide on the dynamics of prey–predator species system’

Individual and population level effects of ocean acidification on a predator−prey system with inducible defenses: bryozoan−nudibranch interactions in the Salish Sea

Ocean acidification (OA) from in creased oceanic CO2 concentrations imposes significant physiological stresses on many calcifying organisms. OA effects on individual organisms may be synergistically amplified or reduced by inter- and intraspecies interactions as they propagate up to population and community
levels, altering predictions by studies of calcifier responses in isolation. The calcifying colonial bryozoan Membranipora membranacea and the predatory nudibranch Corambe steinbergae comprise a trophic system strongly regulated by predator induced defensive responses and space limitation, presenting a unique system to investigate OA effects on these regulatory mechanisms at individual and population levels. We experimentally quantified OA effects across a range of pH from 7.0 to 7.9 on growth, calcification, senescence and predator-induced spine formation in Membranipora, with or without waterborne predator cue, and on zooid consumption rates in Corambe at Friday Harbor Laboratories, San Juan Island, WA. Membranipora exhibited maximum growth and calcification at moderately low pH (7.6), and continued spine formation in all pH treatments.
Spines reduced Corambe zooid consumption rates, with lower pH weakening this effect. Using a spatially explicit model of colony growth, where colony area
serves as a proxy for colony fitness, we assessed the population-level impacts of these experimentally determined individual-level effects in the context of
space limitation. The area-based fitness costs associated with defense measured at the individual level led to amplified effects predicted for the population level due to competition. Our coupled experimental and modeling results demonstrate the need to consider population-level processes when assessing ecological responses to stresses from changing environments.

Continue reading ‘Individual and population level effects of ocean acidification on a predator−prey system with inducible defenses: bryozoan−nudibranch interactions in the Salish Sea’

Modeling impact of varying pH due to carbondioxide on the dynamics of prey–predator species system

In this paper, we have considered a nonlinear mathematical model to investigate the effect of pH on prey–predator dynamics with Holling type II functional response. In the model, capture rate, handling time, growth rate and death rate are considered to be pH dependent. From the analysis of the model, it has been observed that as pH level goes below the normal tolerance limit of prey species then the equilibrium density of prey population decreases due to increase in capture rate and decrease in handling time by predator. Further, we have shown that as the growth rate of prey population decreases due to lowering of pH then the density of predator population also decreases and both the populations may tend to extinction if growth rate of prey population becomes negative due to lowering of pH on account of elevated carbondioxide concentration in the aquatic body. Moreover, it is noticed from the simulation that if the mortality of predator population increases because of decrease in pH level then the prey population gets advantage and in-turn their population increases.

Continue reading ‘Modeling impact of varying pH due to carbondioxide on the dynamics of prey–predator species system’

Microzooplankton grazing responds to simulated ocean acidification indirectly through changes in prey cellular characteristics

Microzooplankton (MZP) grazing is a factor that regulates oceanic primary production and is a controlling mechanism for marine biogeochemical cycling. Despite the prominent ecological role of MZP, few studies have explored their responses to ocean acidification (OA). Studies to date generally indicate that MZP are affected indirectly by OA through changes in phytoplankton prey composition and biomass concentration. Here, we conducted a series of experiments testing whether OA-induced changes in cellular characteristics of individual prey species can cause changes in MZP grazing. Two tintinnid ciliates (Eutintinnus sp. and Schmidingerella sp.) and a heterotrophic dinoflagellate (Oxyrrhis marina) were offered phytoplankton prey (Emiliania huxleyi) cultured under 3 pCO2 concentrations. Using linear mixed effects models, we found that Eutintinnus sp. and O. marina exhibited a step-wise increase in ingestion rates on E. huxleyi cells cultured under elevated pCO2. Schmidingerella sp. ingestion showed a non-linear response, whereby cells cultured under high pCO2 were ingested at higher rates than cells from moderate pCO2. The percentages of all 3 MZP populations observed feeding were higher on E. huxleyi cells cultured under elevated pCO2, with Eutintinnus sp. showing a step-wise increase. We postulate that this response is caused by the observed increased coccosphere volume in E. huxleyi cells cultured under elevated pCO2. If changes in phytoplankton cell volume are widespread under OA, this could be an important mechanism by which MZP grazing behavior shifts and planktonic food web dynamics are altered in the future ocean.

Continue reading ‘Microzooplankton grazing responds to simulated ocean acidification indirectly through changes in prey cellular characteristics’

Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific

Climate change increases exposure and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine organisms, posing substantial ecophysiological and ecotoxicological risks. Here, we applied a trophodynamic ecosystem model to examine the bioaccumulation of organic mercury (MeHg) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in a Northeastern Pacific marine food web under climate change. We found largely heterogeneous sensitivity in climate-pollution impacts between chemicals and trophic groups. Concentration of MeHg and PCBs in top predators, including resident killer whales, is projected to be amplified by 8 and 3%, respectively, by 2100 under a high carbon emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) relative to a no-climate change control scenario. However, the level of amplification increases with higher carbon emission scenario for MeHg, but decreases for PCBs. Such idiosyncratic responses are shaped by the differences in bioaccumulation pathways between MeHg and PCBs, and the modifications of food web dynamics between different levels of climate change. Climate-induced pollutant amplification in mid-trophic level predators (Chinook salmon) are projected to be higher (~10%) than killer whales. Overall, the predicted trophic magnification factor is ten-fold higher in MeHg than in PCBs under high CO2 emissions. This contribution highlights the importance of understanding the interactions with anthropogenic organic pollutants in assessing climate risks on marine ecosystems.

Continue reading ‘Projected amplification of food web bioaccumulation of MeHg and PCBs under climate change in the Northeastern Pacific’

Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change

Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)—one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet—remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.

Continue reading ‘Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change’

Opportunities for climate‐risk reduction through effective fisheries management

Risk of impact of marine fishes to fishing and climate change (including ocean acidification) depend on the species’ ecological and biological characteristics, as well as their exposure to over‐exploitation and climate hazards. These human‐induced hazards should be considered concurrently in conservation risk assessment. In this study, we aim to examine the combined contributions of climate change and fishing to the risk of impacts of exploited fishes, and the scope for climate‐risk reduction from fisheries management. We combine fuzzy logic expert system with species distribution modeling to assess the extinction risks of climate and fishing impacts of 825 exploited marine fish species across the global ocean. We compare our calculated risk index with extinction risk of marine species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Our results show that 60% (499 species) of the assessed species are projected to experience very high risk from both overfishing and climate change under a “business‐as‐usual” scenario (RCP 8.5 with current status of fisheries) by 2050. The risk index is significantly and positively related to level of IUCN extinction risk (ordinal logistic regression, p < 0.0001). Furthermore, the regression model predicts species with very high risk index would have at least one in five (>20%) chance of having high extinction risk in the next few decades (equivalent to the IUCN categories of vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered). Areas with more at‐risk species to climate change are in tropical and subtropical oceans, while those that are at risk to fishing are distributed more broadly, with higher concentration of at‐risk species in North Atlantic and South Pacific Ocean. The number of species with high extinction risk would decrease by 63% under the sustainable fisheries‐low emission scenario relative to the “business‐as‐usual” scenario. This study highlights the substantial opportunities for climate‐risk reduction through effective fisheries management.

Continue reading ‘Opportunities for climate‐risk reduction through effective fisheries management’


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OA-ICC HIGHLIGHTS

Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

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