Abstract
In the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), changes in the Gulf Stream (GS), particularly its strength and proximity to the coast, are thought to be primary factors determining the shelf-break upwelling rate. However, it is still not entirely clear if and to what extent those factors influence cross-shelf nutrient fluxes and shape the ocean biogeochemistry at interannual and longer timescales. Here, we use a high-resolution regional ocean-biogeochemical model and an ocean reanalysis product (1993–2022), along with a satellite-derived chlorophyll data set (1997–2022), to investigate the interannual ocean-biogeochemical variability in the SAB. Regional model outputs suggest that year-to-year changes in phytoplankton production are indeed largely driven by upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich water to the shelf-break. The upwelling variability, reflected in bottom temperature and vertically integrated production patterns, is strongly linked to surface velocity changes in the GS near the shelf break, but weakly related to the depth-integrated GS transport. The GS’s velocity changes, and the temperature and production anomalies, are well correlated to the alongshore wind stress, suggesting that local wind is the leading driver of the shelf-break upwelling variability at interannual timescales. Those relationships are also supported by circulation patterns from ocean reanalysis and satellite chlorophyll anomalies. Finally, examining the simulated shelf-slope interchanges in the carbonate system, we find that shelf-break upwelling significantly increases bottom acidification, a pattern linked to the low carbonate concentration in the slope waters. This study thus provides new insight for understanding and predicting GS and winds impacts on biogeochemical patterns from the SAB.
Plain Language Summary
The ocean current known as the Gulf Stream (GS) can induce upwelling of subsurface cold and nutrient-rich waters into the coastal margin of the South Atlantic Bight, influencing coastal temperature and phytoplankton growth. Previous studies suggested that the GS strength and its proximity to the coast are key factors determining the intensity of upwelling events. However, the degree to which these factors impact the year-to-year changes in phytoplankton production and other ocean properties remains unclear. Here we use numerical models of ocean currents and seawater biogeochemistry, as well as chlorophyll records derived from satellite measurements, to investigate that impact. The patterns showed that interannual changes in coastal temperature, phytoplankton production, water acidity, and dissolved oxygen are strongly modulated by upwelling changes in the outer edge of the continental margin (about 70 m depth in this region). This interannual upwelling variability is tightly coupled to variations in the surface alongshore GS velocity close to that outer edge, which is modulated by alongshore wind variability. Our study characterizes GS patterns associated with high and low productivity years, and highlights the role of surface wind as ultimate driver of the interannual upwelling variability in the South Atlantic Bight.
Key Points
- A regional ocean model is used to investigate interannual variability of ocean-biogeochemistry in the South Atlantic Bight
- Year-to-year changes in primary production, chlorophyll, and carbonate system patterns respond to shelf-break upwelling anomalies
- Shelf-break upwelling is closely linked to the Gulf Stream velocity near the shelf break, modulated by alongshore wind variability



