
For years, scientists have known that the ocean does a huge amount of the planet’s climate work for us.
The ocean absorbs a large share of the carbon dioxide, taking in roughly 20 to 30 percent of human-caused CO2 emissions since the industrial era. At the same time, tropical cyclones are among the most violent things that happen on Earth’s surface. They churn the upper ocean, stir up deep water, cool the sea surface, and leave behind lingering physical changes that can last for weeks. What has been much less clear is how those storms affect the ocean’s role in the carbon cycle. Do tropical cyclones help the ocean absorb carbon, or do they cause it to release more back into the atmosphere?
A new study suggests the answer is not simple, and it may also be changing.
A role reversal for tropical cyclones
The study was led by experts at the National University of Defense Technology (NUDT), Chinese Academy of Sciences, the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel.
The team pulled together a large set of observations to build a globally available daily dataset of air-sea CO2 flux. Using that, they were able to track how tropical cyclones have influenced the exchange of carbon between the ocean and the atmosphere over time. Their conclusion is that tropical cyclones have tended to push carbon out of the ocean and into the air. But that effect has been weakening in recent decades, and if warming continues under high emissions, the role of these storms may eventually flip.
A messy carbon signal
At first, the result sounds a little counterintuitive. The researchers found that tropical cyclones generally cause net ocean carbon outgassing. The main reason is that the intense winds of a cyclone greatly strengthen the transfer of CO2 from sea to air. But there is another process happening at the same time. After a tropical cyclone passes, it often leaves behind a cold wake, a patch of sea surface that has cooled because the storm mixed the upper ocean so strongly. That cooling can increase the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, partly offsetting the carbon being released. Tropical cyclones are doing two things at once: they are helping CO2 escape because of their winds, while also setting up conditions that can later encourage carbon uptake.
The new study suggests that, historically, the first effect has usually won out. Even so, that balance has not stayed fixed.
Why the balance is shifting
One of the most striking findings is that cyclone-driven carbon outgassing seems to be declining. During the period from 1993 to 1997, tropical cyclones accounted for about 16 percent of the global annual carbon flux linked to these storm-related exchanges. By 2016 to 2020, that number had dropped to about 4.5 percent. That is a big shift in a relatively short amount of time.
The researchers argue that global warming is the key reason. As the climate warms, the surface ocean is heating faster than the water below it, which strengthens the vertical temperature gradient in the upper ocean. That matters because when a tropical cyclone hits a more strongly stratified ocean, the storm can produce stronger surface cooling. And that stronger cooling makes it easier for the ocean to absorb CO2 afterward.
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A reversal may be coming
The study goes a step further and warns that under continued high human emissions, tropical cyclones may eventually stop acting as a net source of ocean carbon release and start doing the opposite. According to the authors, that reversal could happen sometime after about 2035 if anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain high. That sounds, at first glance, like good news. If tropical cyclones begin enhancing ocean carbon uptake instead of release, it might seem as though the ocean is helping more.
But the researchers are careful not to frame it that way.
More carbon in the ocean
More carbon entering the ocean does not just disappear harmlessly. It changes seawater chemistry and worsens ocean acidification, which can be deeply harmful for marine ecosystems. So even if storms begin to drive more ocean uptake overall, that would not represent a climate win. It would mean additional pressure on ocean life. The authors note that this kind of shift could intensify chemical changes in seawater and contribute to habitat loss for marine species.
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Why emissions still matter
The most important point in the study may be that the future role of tropical cyclones depends heavily on what people do next. If carbon emissions remain high, the storms’ contribution to ocean carbon uptake will likely strengthen sooner, pushing more carbon into the sea and worsening acidification risks. If emissions are brought under control quickly, the shift would happen more slowly.
Broader implications of the study
The authors suggest that with immediate mitigation, the downward trend in cyclone-driven carbon flux would probably not reverse until around the 2040s. Even then, it could take until late in the century for ocean carbon uptake linked to these storms to return to today’s levels.
“The role of tropical cyclones in the global carbon cycle has long been obscure, owing to sparse observations during and after tropical cyclones,” said study co-author Zhanhong Ma.
“This work provides a sophisticated global air-sea carbon flux dataset, enabling exploration of the tropical cyclone contribution in the context of global warming.”
The study is published in the journal Nature Geoscience.
Continue reading ‘Tropical cyclones may soon flip from releasing carbon to absorbing it’

