Posts Tagged 'regionalmodeling'

An alternative to static climatologies: robust estimation of open ocean CO2 variables and nutrient concentrations from T, S, and O2 data using Bayesian neural networks

This work presents two new methods to estimate oceanic alkalinity (AT), dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), pH, and pCO2 from temperature, salinity, oxygen, and geolocation data. “CANYON-B” is a Bayesian neural network mapping that accurately reproduces GLODAPv2 bottle data and the biogeochemical relations contained therein. “CONTENT” combines and refines the four carbonate system variables to be consistent with carbonate chemistry. Both methods come with a robust uncertainty estimate that incorporates information from the local conditions. They are validated against independent GO-SHIP bottle and sensor data, and compare favorably to other state-of-the-art mapping methods. As “dynamic climatologies” they show comparable performance to classical climatologies on large scales but a much better representation on smaller scales (40–120 d, 500–1,500 km) compared to in situ data. The limits of these mappings are explored with pCO2 estimation in surface waters, i.e., at the edge of the domain with high intrinsic variability. In highly productive areas, there is a tendency for pCO2 overestimation due to decoupling of the O2 and C cycles by air-sea gas exchange, but global surface pCO2 estimates are unbiased compared to a monthly climatology. CANYON-B and CONTENT are highly useful as transfer functions between components of the ocean observing system (GO-SHIP repeat hydrography, BGC-Argo, underway observations) and permit the synergistic use of these highly complementary systems, both in spatial/temporal coverage and number of observations. Through easily and robotically-accessible observations they allow densification of more difficult-to-observe variables (e.g., 15 times denser AT and CT compared to direct measurements). At the same time, they give access to the complete carbonate system. This potential is demonstrated by an observation-based global analysis of the Revelle buffer factor, which shows a significant, high latitude-intensified increase between +0.1 and +0.4 units per decade. This shows the utility that such transfer functions with realistic uncertainty estimates provide to ocean biogeochemistry and global climate change research. In addition, CANYON-B provides robust and accurate estimates of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Matlab and R code are available at https://github.com/HCBScienceProducts/.

Continue reading ‘An alternative to static climatologies: robust estimation of open ocean CO2 variables and nutrient concentrations from T, S, and O2 data using Bayesian neural networks’

A strategy for the conservation of biodiversity on mid-ocean ridges from deep-sea mining

Mineral exploitation has spread from land to shallow coastal waters and is now planned for the offshore, deep seabed. Large seafloor areas are being approved for exploration for seafloor mineral deposits, creating an urgent need for regional environmental management plans. Networks of areas where mining and mining impacts are prohibited are key elements of these plans. We adapt marine reserve design principles to the distinctive biophysical environment of mid-ocean ridges, offer a framework for design and evaluation of these networks to support conservation of benthic ecosystems on mid-ocean ridges, and introduce projected climate-induced changes in the deep sea to the evaluation of reserve design. We enumerate a suite of metrics to measure network performance against conservation targets and network design criteria promulgated by the Convention on Biological Diversity. We apply these metrics to network scenarios on the northern and equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where contractors are exploring for seafloor massive sulfide (SMS) deposits. A latitudinally distributed network of areas performs well at (i) capturing ecologically important areas and 30 to 50% of the spreading ridge areas, (ii) replicating representative areas, (iii) maintaining along-ridge population connectivity, and (iv) protecting areas potentially less affected by climate-related changes. Critically, the network design is adaptive, allowing for refinement based on new knowledge and the location of mining sites, provided that design principles and conservation targets are maintained. This framework can be applied along the global mid-ocean ridge system as a precautionary measure to protect biodiversity and ecosystem function from impacts of SMS mining.

Continue reading ‘A strategy for the conservation of biodiversity on mid-ocean ridges from deep-sea mining’

Impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate sediment budget of a temperate mixed beach

The production of sediments by carbonate-producing ecosystems is an important input for beach sediment budgets in coastal areas where no terrigenous input occurs. Calcifying organisms are a major source of bioclastic carbonate sediment for coastal systems. Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are leading to an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 on ocean seawater, causing ocean acidification (OA), with direct consequences for the pH of ocean waters. Most studies of OA focus on its impact on marine ecosystems. The impact of OA on carbonate-producing ecosystems could be to reduce the amount of sediments supplied to temperate coastal systems. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of the predicted OA on the long-term sediment budget of a temperate Mediterranean mixed carbonate beach and dune system. Based on projections of OA we estimated a fall of about 31% in the present bioclastic carbonate sediment deposition rate, with the biggest decreases seen in the dunes (− 46%). OA is also expected to affect the carbonate sediment reservoirs, increasing the dissolution of CaCO3and causing net sediment loss from the system (~ 50,000 t century−1). In the long-term, OA could also play a primary role in the response of these systems to sea-level rise. Indeed, the reduction in the quantity of carbonate sediments provided to the system may affect the speed with which the system is able to adapt to sea-level rise, by increasing wave run-up, and may promote erosion of dunes and subaerial beaches.

Continue reading ‘Impact of ocean acidification on the carbonate sediment budget of a temperate mixed beach’

Identifying important species that amplify or mitigate the interactive effects of human impacts to marine food webs

Some species may be more important in transferring the complex effects of multiple human stressors through marine food‐webs. Here we show a novel approach to help inform conservation management in identifying such species. Simulating changes in biomass between species from the interaction effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification, and fisheries to year 2050 on the south‐eastern Australian marine system, we constructed annual interaction effect networks (IEN’s). Each IEN was composed of the species linked by either an additive (sum of the individual stressor response), synergistic (lower biomass compared with additive effects) or antagonistic (greater biomass compared with additive effects) response. Structurally, over the simulation period, the number of species and links in the synergistic IEN’s increased and the network structure became more stable. The stability of the antagonistic IEN’s decreased and became more vulnerable to the loss of species. In contrast, there was no change in the structural attributes of species linked by an additive response. Using indices of species importance common in food‐web and network theory, we identified the most important species within each IEN for transferring the interaction stressor effect on changes in biomass via local, intermediate and global interaction pathways. Mid trophic level mesopelagic fish species were most often identified as the key species within the synergistic IEN’s and phytoplankton or zooplankton within the antagonistic IEN’s. For the additive response commonly assumed in conservation management demersal fish species were identified by all of the indices. Apart from identifying the most important species, we also identified other important species for transferring the different interaction effects. Knowing the most important species for transferring synergistic or antagonistic responses may help inform conservation strategies for conserving ecosystems under increasing multiple stressor impacts.

Continue reading ‘Identifying important species that amplify or mitigate the interactive effects of human impacts to marine food webs’

Effects of biological production and vertical mixing on sea surface pCO2 variations in the Changjiang River plume during early autumn: A buoy‐based time series study

A month‐long, high‐resolution buoy time series from the surface ocean of the Changjiang River plume in early autumn 2013 (30‐min sampling frequency) show great variability in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), and other physical and biogeochemical parameters. Early in the deployment, surface pCO2 decreased by ~117 μatm in a single day (11–12 September, from an initial value of ~527 μatm); a similar decline of 62 μatm occurred 5 days later (to ~378 μatm). Both drawdown events were associated with strong vertical stratification, high chlorophyll a concentrations, and oxygen supersaturation. A one‐dimensional mass balance model suggests that biological production was responsible for more than half the pCO2 decrease observed during 10–23 September. Subsequently, in association with strong winds, the mixed layer rapidly deepened and surface pCO2 increased sharply (by about 108 μatm in late September and again in early October). Vertical mixing accounted for more than half of this pCO2 increase, which offset more than the earlier biologically‐driven CO2 drawdown. In the presence of such strong temporal variations of pCO2, sampling frequency exerts a substantial influence on air‐sea CO2 flux calculations for the Changjiang River plume and similar coastal areas. Compared to daily sampling, even weekly sampling would result in a bias of up to ±4.7 mmol C m−2 d−1, or ±63% error.

Continue reading ‘Effects of biological production and vertical mixing on sea surface pCO2 variations in the Changjiang River plume during early autumn: A buoy‐based time series study’

Expected limits on the ocean acidification buffering potential of a temperate seagrass meadow

Ocean acidification threatens many marine organisms, especially marine calcifiers. The only global‐scale solution to ocean acidification remains rapid reduction in CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, interest in localized mitigation strategies has grown rapidly because of the recognized threat ocean acidification imposes on natural communities, including ones important to humans. Protection of seagrass meadows has been considered as a possible approach for localized mitigation of ocean acidification due to their large standing stocks of organic carbon and high productivity. Yet much work remains to constrain the magnitudes and timescales of potential buffering effects from seagrasses. We developed a biogeochemical box model to better understand the potential for a temperate seagrass meadow to locally mitigate the effects of ocean acidification. Then we parameterized the model using data from Tomales Bay, an inlet on the coast of California, USA which supports a major oyster farming industry. We conducted a series of month‐long model simulations to characterize processes that occur during summer and winter. We found that average pH in the seagrass meadows was typically within 0.04 units of the pH of the primary source waters into the meadow, although we did find occasional periods (hours) when seagrass metabolism may modify the pH by up to ±0.2 units. Tidal phasing relative to the diel cycle modulates localized pH buffering within the seagrass meadow such that maximum buffering occurs during periods of the year with midday low tides. Our model results suggest that seagrass metabolism in Tomales Bay would not provide long‐term ocean acidification mitigation. However, we emphasize that our model results may not hold in meadows where assumptions about depth‐averaged net production and seawater residence time within the seagrass meadow differ from our model assumptions. Our modeling approach provides a framework that is easily adaptable to other seagrass meadows in order to evaluate the extent of their individual buffering capacities. Regardless of their ability to buffer ocean acidification, seagrass meadows maintain many critically important ecosystem goods and services that will be increasingly important as humans increasingly affect coastal ecosystems.

Continue reading ‘Expected limits on the ocean acidification buffering potential of a temperate seagrass meadow’

Future ecosystem changes in the Northeast Atlantic: a comparison between a global and a regional model system

The biogeochemistry from a global climate model (Norwegian Earth System Model) has been compared with results from a regional model (NORWECOM.E2E), where the regional model is forced by downscaled physics from the global model. The study should both be regarded as a direct comparison between a regional and its driving global model to investigate at what extent a global climate model can be used for regional studies, and a study of the future climate change in the Nordic and Barents Seas. The study concludes that the global and regional model compare well on trends, but many details are lost when a coarse resolution global model is used to assess climate impact on regional scale. The main difference between the two models is the timing of the spring bloom, and a non-exhaustive nutrient consumption in the global model in summer. The global model has a cold (in summer) and saline bias compared with climatology. This is both due to poorly resolved physical processes and oversimplified ecosystem parameterization. Through the downscaling the regional model is to some extent able to alleviate the bias in the physical fields, and the timing of the spring bloom is close to observations. The summer nutrient minimum is one month early. There is no trend in future primary production in any of the models, and the trends in modelled pH and ΩAr are also the same in both models. The largest discrepancy in the future projection is in the development of the CO2 uptake, where the regional suggests a slightly reduced uptake in the future.

Continue reading ‘Future ecosystem changes in the Northeast Atlantic: a comparison between a global and a regional model system’


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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book