Posts Tagged 'regionalmodeling'

Acidification mediated by a river plume and coastal upwelling on a fringing reef at the east coast of Hainan Island, Northern South China Sea

We investigated the dynamics of carbonate system which was greatly modulated by a river plume and coastal upwelling in July 2014 and July 2015 at the east coast of Hainan Island where a fringing reef distributes inshore. By using a three end-member mixing model, we semiquantitatively estimated the removal of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) mediated by biological production in the river plume and upwelled water to be 13 ± 17 and 15 ± 16 μmol kg−1, respectively. The enhanced organic production was mainly responsible for these DIC consumptions in both two regimes, however, nearly a half of DIC removal was attributed to biocalcification in the plume system while it was negligible in the upwelling system. Furthermore, the modeled results over reefs revealed that river plume and coastal upwelling were two major threats of acidification to coral communities at the east coast of Hainan Island during cruises. In comparison, the biological contribution to acidification was limited for balancing between organic production and biocalcification during July 2014 cruise, whereas the acidification was greatly intensified by organic degradation during July 2015 cruise. It was verified that naturally local acidification (physical and biological processes) played a major role in great pH decreases on a short-term scale, leading to coastal waters more vulnerable to anthropogenic “ocean acidification” (uptake of atmospheric CO2) by reducing buffering capacity of waters. Finally, effects of acidification associated with other local threats on a fringing reef were further depicted with a conceptual model.

Continue reading ‘Acidification mediated by a river plume and coastal upwelling on a fringing reef at the east coast of Hainan Island, Northern South China Sea’

Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change

Highlights

  • Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, tropical Pacific temperature will rise by ≥ 3 °C by 2100.
  • This is accompanied by declines in dissolved oxygen, pH, and net primary production.
  • This will lead to local extinctions of up to 80% of marine species in some regions.
  • 9 of 17 Pacific Island entities experience ≥ 50% declines in maximum catch potential.
  • Impacts can be greatly reduced by mitigation measures under the RCP 2.6 scenario.


Abstract

The increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the last century has modified oceanic conditions, affecting marine ecosystems and the goods and services that they provide to society. Pacific Island countries and territories are highly vulnerable to these changes because of their strong dependence on ocean resources, high level of exposure to climate effects, and low adaptive capacity. Projections of mid-to-late 21st century changes in sea surface temperature (SST), dissolved oxygen, pH, and net primary productivity (NPP) were synthesized across the tropical Western Pacific under strong climate mitigation and business-as-usual scenarios. These projections were used to model impacts on marine biodiversity and potential fisheries catches. Results were consistent across three climate models, indicating that SST will rise by ≥ 3 °C, surface dissolved oxygen will decline by ≥ 0.01 ml L−1, pH will drop by ≥ 0.3, and NPP will decrease by 0.5 g m−2 d−1 across much of the region by 2100 under the business-as-usual scenario. These changes were associated with rates of local species extinction of > 50% in many regions as fishes and invertebrates decreased in abundance or migrated to regions with conditions more suitable to their bio-climate envelope. Maximum potential catch (MCP) was projected to decrease by > 50% across many areas, with the largest impacts in the western Pacific warm pool. Climate change scenarios that included strong mitigation resulted in substantial reductions of MCP losses, with the area where MCP losses exceeded 50% reduced from 74.4% of the region under business-as-usual to 36.0% of the region under the strong mitigation scenario.

Continue reading ‘Future marine ecosystem drivers, biodiversity, and fisheries maximum catch potential in Pacific Island countries and territories under climate change’

Assessment and management of cumulative impacts in California’s network of marine protected areas

In response to concerns about human impacts to coastal ecosystems, conservationists and practitioners are increasingly turning to networks of marine protected areas (MPAs). Although MPAs manage for fishing pressure, many species and habitats in MPAs remain exposed to a multitude of stressors, including stressors from global climate change and regional land- and ocean-based activities. To support the adaptive management of MPAs that are subject to multiple interacting stressors, coastal managers need to understand the potential impacts from other single and multiple stressors. To demonstrate how this can be done, we quantify and map cumulative impacts resulting from multiple stressors to California’s network of MPAs, using a widely available cumulative impacts mapping tool. Among individual stressors, those related to climate, including ocean acidification, UV radiation increases, and SST anomalies, were found to have the most intense impacts, especially on surface waters and in the rocky intertidal. Climate stressors are challenging to limit at the local MPA scale, but intense land- and ocean-based impacts that were found to affect a majority of MPAs, such as sediment increases, invasive species, organic pollutants and pollution from shipping and ports, may be more easily regulated at a regional or local scale. This is especially relevant for South and Central coast MPAs where these impacts are the greatest on beaches, tidal flats, and coastal marshes. Accounting for cumulative impacts from these and other stressors when developing monitoring and management plans in California and across the world, would help to improve the efficacy of MPAs.

Continue reading ‘Assessment and management of cumulative impacts in California’s network of marine protected areas’

Inorganic carbon fluxes on the Mackenzie Shelf of the Beaufort Sea

The Mackenzie Shelf in the southeastern Beaufort Sea is a region that has experienced large changes in the past several decades as warming, sea-ice loss, and increased river discharge have altered carbon cycling. Upwelling and downwelling events are common on the shelf, caused by strong, fluctuating along-shore winds, resulting in cross-shelf Ekman transport, and an alternating estuarine and anti-estuarine circulation. Downwelling carries inorganic carbon and other remineralization products off the shelf and into the deep basin for possible long-term storage in the world oceans. Upwelling carries dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrient-rich waters from the Pacific-origin upper halocline layer (UHL) onto the shelf. Profiles of DIC and total alkalinity (TA) taken in August and September of 2014 are used to investigate the cycling of inorganic carbon on the Mackenzie Shelf. The along-shore transport of water and the cross-shelf transport of inorganic carbon are quantified using velocity field output from a simulation of the Arctic and Northern Hemisphere Atlantic (ANHA4) configuration of the Nucleus of European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) framework. A strong upwelling event prior to sampling on the Mackenzie Shelf is analyzed and the resulting influence on the carbonate system, including the saturation state of waters with respect to aragonite and pH, is investigated. TA and the oxygen isotope ratio of water (δ18O) are used to examine water-mass distributions in the study area and to investigate the influence of Pacific Water, Mackenzie River freshwater, and sea-ice melt on carbon dynamics and air-sea fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the surface mixed layer. Understanding carbon transfer in this seasonally dynamic environment is key to quantify the importance of Arctic shelf regions to the global carbon cycle and provide a basis for understanding how it will respond to the aforementioned climate-induced changes.

Continue reading ‘Inorganic carbon fluxes on the Mackenzie Shelf of the Beaufort Sea’

Non-uniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink

Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean’s buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short-term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) Version 4 data to develop 12-month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High-latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.

Continue reading ‘Non-uniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink’

Monitoring of offshore geological carbon storage integrity: implications of natural variability in the marine system and the assessment of anomaly detection criteria

Highlights

  • Marine monitoring strategy for offshore geological storage integrity.
  • Baseline pH variability characterised for the North Sea.
  • Ability to distinguish anomalies of 0.01 pH from background variability.
  • Characterisation of distinct potential storage sites.
  • Identification of baseline characterisation strategy to support monitoring.

Abstract
The design of efficient monitoring programmes required for the assurance of offshore geological storage requires an understanding of the variability and heterogeneity of marine carbonate chemistry. In the absence of sufficient observational data and for extrapolation both spatially and seasonally, models have a significant role to play. In this study a previously evaluated hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is used to characterise carbonate chemistry, in particular pH heterogeneity in the vicinity of the sea floor. Using three contrasting regions, the seasonal and short term variability are analysed and criteria that could be considered as indicators of anomalous carbonate chemistry identified. These criteria are then tested by imposing a number of randomised DIC perturbations on the model data, representing a comprehensive range of leakage scenarios. In conclusion optimal criteria and general rules for developing monitoring strategies are identified. Detection criteria will be site specific and vary seasonally and monitoring may be more efficient at periods of low dynamics. Analysis suggests that by using high frequency, sub-hourly monitoring anomalies as small as 0.01 of a pH unit or less may be successfully discriminated from natural variability – thereby allowing detection of small leaks or at distance from a leakage source. Conversely assurance of no leakage would be profound. Detection at deeper sites is likely to be more efficient than at shallow sites where the near bed system is closely coupled to surface processes. Although this study is based on North Sea target sites for geological storage, the model and the general conclusions are relevant to the majority of offshore storage sites lying on the continental shelf.

Continue reading ‘Monitoring of offshore geological carbon storage integrity: implications of natural variability in the marine system and the assessment of anomaly detection criteria’

Deepwater carbonate ion concentrations in the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka: Evidence for oceanic carbon storage and global climate influence

We present new “size-normalized weight” (SNW)-Δ[CO32−] core-top calibrations for three planktonic foraminiferal species and assess their reliability as a paleo-alkalinity proxy. SNWs of Globigerina sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei can be used to reconstruct past deep Pacific [CO32−], whereas SNWs of Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are controlled by additional environmental factors. Based on this methodological advance, we reconstruct SNW-based deepwater [CO32−] for core WP7 from the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka. Secular variation in the SNW proxy documents little change in deep Pacific [CO32−] between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene. Further back in time, deepwater [CO32−] shows long-term increases from marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e to MIS 3 and from early MIS 7 to late MIS 6, consistent with the “coral reef hypothesis” that the deep Pacific Ocean carbonate system responded to declining shelf carbonate production during these two intervals. During deglaciations, we have evidence of [CO32−] peaks coincident with Terminations 2 and 3, which suggests that a breakdown of oceanic vertical stratification drove a net transfer of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere, causing spikes in carbonate preservation (i.e., the “deglacial ventilation hypothesis”). During MIS 4, a transient decline in SNW-based [CO32−], along with other reported [CO32−] and/or dissolution records, implies that increased deep-ocean carbon storage resulted in a global carbonate dissolution event. These findings provide new insights into the role of the deep Pacific in the global carbon cycle during the late Quaternary.

Continue reading ‘Deepwater carbonate ion concentrations in the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka: Evidence for oceanic carbon storage and global climate influence’


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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

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