Posts Tagged 'regionalmodeling'

Monitoring of offshore geological carbon storage integrity: implications of natural variability in the marine system and the assessment of anomaly detection criteria

Highlights

  • Marine monitoring strategy for offshore geological storage integrity.
  • Baseline pH variability characterised for the North Sea.
  • Ability to distinguish anomalies of 0.01 pH from background variability.
  • Characterisation of distinct potential storage sites.
  • Identification of baseline characterisation strategy to support monitoring.

Abstract
The design of efficient monitoring programmes required for the assurance of offshore geological storage requires an understanding of the variability and heterogeneity of marine carbonate chemistry. In the absence of sufficient observational data and for extrapolation both spatially and seasonally, models have a significant role to play. In this study a previously evaluated hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model is used to characterise carbonate chemistry, in particular pH heterogeneity in the vicinity of the sea floor. Using three contrasting regions, the seasonal and short term variability are analysed and criteria that could be considered as indicators of anomalous carbonate chemistry identified. These criteria are then tested by imposing a number of randomised DIC perturbations on the model data, representing a comprehensive range of leakage scenarios. In conclusion optimal criteria and general rules for developing monitoring strategies are identified. Detection criteria will be site specific and vary seasonally and monitoring may be more efficient at periods of low dynamics. Analysis suggests that by using high frequency, sub-hourly monitoring anomalies as small as 0.01 of a pH unit or less may be successfully discriminated from natural variability – thereby allowing detection of small leaks or at distance from a leakage source. Conversely assurance of no leakage would be profound. Detection at deeper sites is likely to be more efficient than at shallow sites where the near bed system is closely coupled to surface processes. Although this study is based on North Sea target sites for geological storage, the model and the general conclusions are relevant to the majority of offshore storage sites lying on the continental shelf.

Continue reading ‘Monitoring of offshore geological carbon storage integrity: implications of natural variability in the marine system and the assessment of anomaly detection criteria’

Deepwater carbonate ion concentrations in the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka: Evidence for oceanic carbon storage and global climate influence

We present new “size-normalized weight” (SNW)-Δ[CO32−] core-top calibrations for three planktonic foraminiferal species and assess their reliability as a paleo-alkalinity proxy. SNWs of Globigerina sacculifer and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei can be used to reconstruct past deep Pacific [CO32−], whereas SNWs of Pulleniatina obliquiloculata are controlled by additional environmental factors. Based on this methodological advance, we reconstruct SNW-based deepwater [CO32−] for core WP7 from the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka. Secular variation in the SNW proxy documents little change in deep Pacific [CO32−] between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene. Further back in time, deepwater [CO32−] shows long-term increases from marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e to MIS 3 and from early MIS 7 to late MIS 6, consistent with the “coral reef hypothesis” that the deep Pacific Ocean carbonate system responded to declining shelf carbonate production during these two intervals. During deglaciations, we have evidence of [CO32−] peaks coincident with Terminations 2 and 3, which suggests that a breakdown of oceanic vertical stratification drove a net transfer of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere, causing spikes in carbonate preservation (i.e., the “deglacial ventilation hypothesis”). During MIS 4, a transient decline in SNW-based [CO32−], along with other reported [CO32−] and/or dissolution records, implies that increased deep-ocean carbon storage resulted in a global carbonate dissolution event. These findings provide new insights into the role of the deep Pacific in the global carbon cycle during the late Quaternary.

Continue reading ‘Deepwater carbonate ion concentrations in the western tropical Pacific since 250 ka: Evidence for oceanic carbon storage and global climate influence’

Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean

The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean decreases seawater pH and carbonate mineral aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), a process known as Ocean Acidification (OA). This can be detrimental to marine organisms and ecosystems1, 2. The Arctic Ocean is particularly sensitive to climate change3 and aragonite is expected to become undersaturated (Ωarag < 1) there sooner than in other oceans4. However, the extent and expansion rate of OA in this region are still unknown. Here we show that, between the 1990s and 2010, low Ωarag waters have expanded northwards at least 5°, to 85° N, and deepened 100 m, to 250 m depth. Data from trans-western Arctic Ocean cruises show that Ωarag < 1 water has increased in the upper 250 m from 5% to 31% of the total area north of 70° N. Tracer data and model simulations suggest that increased Pacific Winter Water transport, driven by an anomalous circulation pattern and sea-ice retreat, is primarily responsible for the expansion, although local carbon recycling and anthropogenic CO2 uptake have also contributed. These results indicate more rapid acidification is occurring in the Arctic Ocean than the Pacific and Atlantic oceans5, 6, 7, 8, with the western Arctic Ocean the first open-ocean region with large-scale expansion of ‘acidified’ water directly observed in the upper water column.

Continue reading ‘Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean’

Development and application of foraminiferal carbonate system proxies to quantify ocean acidification in the California Current

The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon has mitigated climate change, but has also resulted in a global average 0.1 decline in surface ocean pH over 20th century known as ocean acidification. The parallel reduction in carbonate ion concentration ([CO32-]) and the saturation state of seawater (Ω) has caused many major calcium carbonate-secreting organisms such as planktonic foraminifera to exhibit impaired calcification. We develop proxy calibrations and down core records that use calcification and geochemical characteristics of planktonic foraminifera as proxies for the marine carbonate system. This study focuses specifically on the surface ocean chemistry of the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), which has been identified as a region of rapidly progressing ocean acidification due to natural upwelling processes and the low buffering capacity of these waters. The calibration portion of this study uses marine sediments collected by the Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), California sediment-trapping program located in the central region of the CCE. We calibrate the relationships of Globigerina bulloides calcification intensity to [CO3 2-] and the B/Ca ratios of G. bulloides, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and Neogloboquadrina incompta shells to Ω calcite using in situ measurements and model simulations of these independent variables. By applying these proxy methods to down core, our records from the SBB indicate a 20% reduction in foraminiferal calcification since ~1900, translating to a 35% decline in [CO 32-] in the CCE over this period. Our high-resolution calcification record also reveals a substantial interannual to decadal modulation of ocean acidification in the CCE related to the sign of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation. In the future we can expect these climatic modes to both enhance and moderate anthropogenic ocean acidification. Based on our historic record, we predict that if atmospheric CO2 reaches 540 ppm by the year 2100 as predicted by a conservative CO3 pathway, [CO32-] will experience a net reduction of 55%, resulting in at least a 30% reduction in calcification of planktonic foraminifera that will likely be mirrored by other adversely affected marine calcifiers.

Continue reading ‘Development and application of foraminiferal carbonate system proxies to quantify ocean acidification in the California Current’

Eutrophication-induced acidification of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Insights into origin and processes from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model

Nutrient inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River system into the northern Gulf of Mexico promote high phytoplankton production and lead to high respiration rates. Respiration coupled with water column stratification results in seasonal summer hypoxia in bottom waters on the shelf. In addition to consuming oxygen, respiration produces carbon dioxide (CO2), thus lowering the pH and acidifying bottom waters. Here we present a high-resolution biogeochemical model simulating this eutrophication-driven acidification and investigate the dominant underlying processes. The model shows the recurring development of an extended area of acidified bottom waters in summer on the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf that coincides with hypoxic waters. Not reported before, acidified waters are confined to a thin bottom boundary layer where the production of CO2 by benthic metabolic processes is dominant. Despite a reduced saturation state, acidified waters remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite.

Continue reading ‘Eutrophication-induced acidification of coastal waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Insights into origin and processes from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model’

CO2 seawater acidification by CCS-simulated leakage: Kinetic modelling of Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Cu and As release from contaminated estuarine sediment using pH-static leaching tests

A modified pH-dependent leaching test with continuous pH control that employed CO2 to acidify a seawater-sediment mixture is used to address Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Cu and As release from contaminated estuarine sediments under the influence of acidification processes. Long-term (480 h) leaching experiments at pH values of 7.0, 6.5 and 6.0 are performed. The different evolutionary patterns of the redox potential and Fe release at pH = 6 with respect to the other pH values shows the need to assess the influence of the initial Fe content in seawater upon elemental release. Hence, assays at pH = 6.0 are conducted using natural seawater with Fe concentrations between 9.02 and 153 μg/L. A set of in-series reactions for trace elements, Fe and other ions associated with Fe is proposed to model a Fe/multi-ion-dependent mechanism for trace metal release. The maximum concentration of each contaminant that can be released from the sediment and the kinetic parameters of the proposed model are completed for the studied pH values, for good consistency between the experimental and simulated mobilisation of each studied element.

Continue reading ‘CO2 seawater acidification by CCS-simulated leakage: Kinetic modelling of Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Cr, Cu and As release from contaminated estuarine sediment using pH-static leaching tests’

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model’s pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries.

Continue reading ‘Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections’


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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book