Posts Tagged 'regionalmodeling'

Prediction of pH value by multi-classification in the Weizhou Island area

Ocean acidification is changing the chemical environment on which marine life depends. It causes a decrease in seawater pH and changes the water quality parameters of seawater. Changes in water quality parameters may affect pH, a key indicator for assessing ocean acidification. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the correlation between pH and various water quality parameters. In this paper, several water quality parameters with potential correlation with pH are investigated, and multiple linear regression, softmax regression, and support vector machine are used to perform multi-classification. Most importantly, experimental data were collected from Weizhou Island, China. The classification results show that the pH has a strong correlation with salinity, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. The prediction accuracy of the classification is good, and the correlation with dissolved oxygen is the most significant. The prediction accuracies of the three methods for multi-classifiers based on the above three factors reach 87.01%, 87.77%, and 89.04%, respectively.

Continue reading ‘Prediction of pH value by multi-classification in the Weizhou Island area’

Arctic sensitivity? Suitable habitat for benthic taxa is surprisingly robust to climate change

Arctic marine ecosystems are often assumed to be highly vulnerable to ongoing climate change, and are expected to undergo significant shifts in structure and function. Community shifts in benthic fauna are likely to result from changes in key physico-chemical drivers, such as ocean warming, but there is little ecological data on most Arctic species to support any specific predictions as to how vulnerable they are, or how future communities may be structured. We used a species distribution modeling approach (MaxEnt) to project changes over the 21st century in suitable habitat area for different species of benthic fauna by combining presence observations from the OBIS database with environmental data from a coupled climate-ocean model (SINMOD). Projected mean % habitat losses over taxonomic groups were small (0–11%), and no significant differences were found between Arctic, boreal, or Arcto-boreal groups, or between calcifying and non-calcifying groups. However, suitable habitat areas for 14 of 78 taxa were projected a change by over 20%, and several of these taxa are characteristic and/or habitat-forming fauna on some Arctic shelves, suggesting a potential for significant ecosystem impacts. These results highlight the weakness of general statements regarding vulnerability of taxa on biogeographic or presumed physiological grounds, and suggest that more basic biological data on Arctic taxa are needed for improved projections of ecosystem responses to climate change.

Continue reading ‘Arctic sensitivity? Suitable habitat for benthic taxa is surprisingly robust to climate change’

Deconvolving the long-term impacts of ocean acidification and warming on coral biomineralisation

Highlights

• Evaluation of temperature and pH effects in coral carbonate chemistry over 1939-2013.

• Coral calcifying fluid pH influenced by both, seawater pH and temperature.

• Temperature principal influence on calcifying fluid pH on seasonal scales.

• Long-term changes in calcifying fluid pH mainly influenced by seawater pH.

• Decline in carbonate ion and calcification consistent with ocean acidification.

Abstract

Identifying the long-term effects of ocean acidification (OA) and global warming on coral calcification has proven elusive yet has major implications for the continuing viability of coral reefs in the face of climate change. Here we address this question using seasonally and annually resolved boron proxies (11B/10B and B/Ca) of calcifying fluid (cf) pHcf and carbonate ion concentrations ([CO]cf) preserved in a long-lived Porites coral from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). From 1939 to 2013 we find that the coral pHcf closely followed the decline in seawater pH of ∼0.1 units, but at a reduced rate of ∼60%, indicative of biological buffering. Of the decline in pHcf ∼82% is attributed to OA and ∼17% to the ∼0.5 °C long-term warming observed over this period. This long-term warming induced change in pHcf is consistent with the much larger seasonally modulated changes in pHcf where ∼4 to 6 °C seasonal changes in temperatures are accompanied by relatively large antithetic ∼0.1 changes in pHcf. Furthermore, we find that although the supply of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the coral cf has remained at constant elevated levels of ∼1.5 × seawater, there has been a significant long-term decline (4 to 11%) in the [CO]cf, due primarily to the OA-induced change in pHcf. This decline in [CO]cf, a critical parameter controlling calcification, is thus likely responsible for the ∼15% decline in coral calcification observed since 1939 and across the GBR generally.

Continue reading ‘Deconvolving the long-term impacts of ocean acidification and warming on coral biomineralisation’

Simulating and quantifying multiple natural subsea CO2 seeps at Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, Italy) as a proxy for potential leakage from subseabed carbon storage sites

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) has been discussed as a potentially significant mitigation option for the ongoing climate warming. Natural CO2 release sites serve as natural laboratories to study subsea CO2 leakage in order to identify suitable analytical methods and numerical models to develop best-practice procedures for the monitoring of subseabed storage sites. We present a new model of bubble (plume) dynamics, advection-dispersion of dissolved CO2, and carbonate chemistry. The focus is on a medium-sized CO2 release from 294 identified small point sources around Panarea Island (South-East Tyrrhenian Sea, Aeolian Islands, Italy) in water depths of about 40–50 m. This study evaluates how multiple CO2 seep sites generate a temporally variable plume of dissolved CO2. The model also allows the overall flow rate of CO2 to be estimated based on field measurements of pH. Simulations indicate a release of ∼6900 t y–1 of CO2 for the investigated area and highlight an important role of seeps located at >20 m water depth in the carbon budget of the Panarea offshore gas release system. This new transport-reaction model provides a framework for understanding potential future leaks from CO2 storage sites.

Continue reading ‘Simulating and quantifying multiple natural subsea CO2 seeps at Panarea Island (Aeolian Islands, Italy) as a proxy for potential leakage from subseabed carbon storage sites’

Evaluating present and future potential of arctic fisheries in Canada

Highlights

• Climate change will increase access to Arctic marine fish stocks in Canada.

• Projections show positive increases in fisheries catch and value potential with climate change.

• Range shifts driven by ocean warming will lead to increased catch potential.

• Ocean acidification may reduce projected increase in catch potential.

• Ecological, economic, social and cultural impacts of exploitation must be considered.

Abstract

The Arctic remains one of the most pristine marine regions in the world, however climate change and increasing favourable conditions is triggering increasing exploration and development of commercial fisheries. Canada’s Arctic marine capture fisheries are currently small relative to fisheries in other regions in Canada but small scale, predominantly Inuit fisheries are more wide spread. In this study, catch data was first used to estimate the current state of Arctic marine fisheries. Next, an integrated modelling approach was used to estimate the current and future fisheries potentials under high and low climate change scenarios. Comparisons of the current (2004–2015) annual reported tonnage and modelled estimates (±standard deviation) suggest that annual sustainable fisheries catch potential could be much greater at 4.07 (±2.86) million tonnes than the current catch of 189 (±6.26) thousand tonnes. Under a high climate change scenario, future (2091–2100) fisheries potential was projected to increase to 6.95 (±5.07) million tonnes of catch, while under low climate change scenario catch potential was similar to estimates of current catch potential. However, the greatest source of variance in catch potential estimates came from parameter uncertainty, followed by scenario and model uncertainty. These results contribute to understanding Canada’s Arctic marine ecosystems in the face of a rapidly changing environment, yet proper steps must be taken to ensure cultural preservation for Inuit communities as well as ecological, economic, and social sustainability.

Continue reading ‘Evaluating present and future potential of arctic fisheries in Canada’

Potential distribution under climate change scenarios of corals of the genus Pocillopora (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) in the tropical eastern Pacific (in Spanish)

In the tropical eastern Pacific (POT), the pociloporids represent a key component of the coral communities, which develop in limiting environmental conditions. The objective of this study is to understand how climate change, in particular the increase in temperature and acidification, could influence the distribution of these coral species. Ecological niche models were used to evaluate possible changes in the geographical distribution of 9 species of pociloporides, based on predictions of temperature increase and pH decrease under the “representative concentration pathways” (CPR) scenarios. 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for the year 2050. The projections made with Maxent show a tendency towards the conservation of the species distribution area in the CPR 2.6 scenario, while an increase in the favorable area for most of them was observed under the CPR 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. By 2050, the optimal conditions for the presence of corals will be located at high latitudes and towards the equator. Finally, regions currently considered marginal for reef development are expected to persist and expand under future conditions. These results have important implications for the conservation of marginal reefs under a changing climate.

Continue reading ‘Potential distribution under climate change scenarios of corals of the genus Pocillopora (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) in the tropical eastern Pacific (in Spanish)’

Spatial assessment of the vulnerability of benthic communities to multiple stressors in the Yucatan Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico

Highlights

• Vulnerability assessment to multiple pressures identify areas with high potential impact.

• Marine traffic and ocean acidification are the main threats for the benthos.

• The inclusion of benthic recovery traits improves the vulnerability assessment.

• Synergistic and antagonistic impacts can be identified using pressures weighting scenarios.

Abstract

Here, we show a spatially explicit assessment of the vulnerability of benthic communities from the Yucatan Continental Shelf (YCS) to multiple pressures: fishing activities, shipping traffic, storms and hurricanes, and marine acidification. The vulnerability index was obtained by combining benthic biological traits with exposure and sensitivity and recovery capacity; this was then represented in a spatially explicit model. Moreover, we estimated a cumulative vulnerability index using three different scenarios that were based on 1) equal weight for each vulnerability layer to each stressor, 2) results of expert consultation and 3) a linear reduction in the weight of the pressures. By comparing scenarios, the synergistic and antagonistic effects of the multiple stressors were determined. The main results showed that, independent of the considered scenario, approximately 90% of the YCS presented moderate to high vulnerability to cumulative pressures, while areas with high recovery and high potential impact on a particular stressor showed low or moderate vulnerability to the pressures. Meanwhile, areas classified as having medium impact levels and low recovery capacities of benthic fauna showed moderate to high vulnerability to the same threats. Our findings also showed that ship traffic and marine acidification were the threats that contributed to the greatest vulnerability. The paired comparison of scenarios allows for the identification of areas with higher probabilities of synergistic effects. No antagonistic effects were detected. Overall, our results constitute the first effort to understand the ecological status of the benthic communities of the YCS and their potential vulnerability to the multiple pressures they face.

Continue reading ‘Spatial assessment of the vulnerability of benthic communities to multiple stressors in the Yucatan Continental Shelf, Gulf of Mexico’


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OA-ICC HIGHLIGHTS

Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book