Posts Tagged 'regionalmodeling'

Implementing a finite-volume coupled physical-biogeochemical model to the coastal East China Sea

Several models for estuarine physical processes and biogeochemistry have been developed over last decades. One of the most comprehensive coupled model systems, Finite Volume Community Coastal Model (FVCOM) coupled with European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) through the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (FABM) has been implemented to a high resolution coastal East China Sea (ECS), which encompassed complex coastal zone and part of continental shelf. Physical model was assessed by traditional univariate comparisons, while a rigorous model skill assessment was conducted for coupled biological model. The model system’s ability to reproduce major characteristics both in physical and biological environments was evaluated. The roles of physical, chemical and environmental parameters on the biogeochemistry of the ECS were extensively studied. This work could form a significant basis for future work, e.g. the response of biogeochemical flux to physical mechanism.

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Mapping cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services in British Columbia

Ecosystem services are impacted through restricting service supply, through limiting people from accessing services, and by affecting the quality of services. We map cumulative impacts to 8 different ecosystem services in coastal British Columbia using InVEST models, spatial data, and expert elicitation to quantify risk to each service from anthropogenic activities. We find that impact to service access and quality as well as impact to service supply results in greater severity of impact and a greater diversity of causal processes of impact than only considering impact to service supply. This suggests that limiting access to services and impacts to service quality may be important and understanding these kinds of impacts may complement our knowledge of impacts to biophysical systems that produce services. Some ecosystem services are at greater risk from climate stressors while others face greater risk from local activities. Prominent causal pathways of impact include limiting access and affecting quality. Mapping cumulative impacts to ecosystem services can yield rich insights, including highlighting areas of high impact and understanding causes of impact, and should be an essential management tool to help maintain the flow of services we benefit from.

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Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean

Rapid climate warming and sea-ice loss have induced major changes in the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2pCO2). However, the long-term trends in the western Arctic Ocean are unknown. Here we show that in 1994–2017, summer pCO2pCO2 in the Canada Basin increased at twice the rate of atmospheric increase. Warming and ice loss in the basin have strengthened the pCO2pCO2 seasonal amplitude, resulting in the rapid decadal increase. Consequently, the summer air–sea CO2 gradient has reduced rapidly, and may become near zero within two decades. In contrast, there was no significant pCO2pCO2 increase on the Chukchi Shelf, where strong and increasing biological uptake has held pCO2pCO2 low, and thus the CO2 sink has increased and may increase further due to the atmospheric CO2 increase. Our findings elucidate the contrasting physical and biological drivers controlling sea surface pCO2pCO2 variations and trends in response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean.

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Spatial risk assessment of global change impacts on Swedish seagrass ecosystems

Improved knowledge on the risk in ecologically important habitats on a regional scale from multiple stressors is critical for managing functioning and resilient ecosystems. This risk assessment aimed to identify seagrass ecosystems in southern Sweden that will be exposed to a high degree of change from multiple global change stressors in mid- and end-of-century climate change conditions. Risk scores were calculated from the expected overlap of three stressors: sea surface temperature increases, ocean acidification and wind driven turbid conditions. Three high-risk regions were identified as areas likely to be exposed to a particularly high level of pressure from the global stressors by the end of the century. In these areas it can be expected that there will be a large degree of stressor change from the current conditions. Given the ecological importance of seagrass meadows for maintaining high biodiversity and a range of other ecosystem services, these risk zones should be given high priority for incorporation into management strategies, which can attempt to reduce controllable stressors in order to mitigate the consequences of some of the impending pressures and manage for maintained ecosystem resilience.

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Emergent constraint on Arctic Ocean acidification in the twenty-first century

The ongoing uptake of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean leads to ocean acidification, a process that results in a reduction in pH and in the saturation state of biogenic calcium carbonate minerals aragonite (Ωarag) and calcite (Ωcalc)1,2. Because of its naturally low Ωarag and Ωcalc (refs. 2,3), the Arctic Ocean is considered the region most susceptible to future acidification and associated ecosystem impacts4,5,6,7. However, the magnitude of projected twenty-first century acidification differs strongly across Earth system models8. Here we identify an emergent multi-model relationship between the simulated present-day density of Arctic Ocean surface waters, used as a proxy for Arctic deep-water formation, and projections of the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification. By applying observations of sea surface density, we constrain the end of twenty-first century Arctic Ocean anthropogenic carbon inventory to 9.0 ± 1.6 petagrams of carbon and the basin-averaged Ωarag and Ωcalc to 0.76 ± 0.06 and 1.19 ± 0.09, respectively, under the high-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenario. Our results indicate greater regional anthropogenic carbon storage and ocean acidification than previously projected3,8 and increase the probability that large parts of the mesopelagic Arctic Ocean will be undersaturated with respect to calcite by the end of the century. This increased rate of Arctic Ocean acidification, combined with rapidly changing physical and biogeochemical Arctic conditions9,10,11, is likely to exacerbate the impact of climate change on vulnerable Arctic marine ecosystems.

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Controls on surface water carbonate chemistry along North American ocean margins

Syntheses of carbonate chemistry spatial patterns are important for predicting ocean acidification impacts, but are lacking in coastal oceans. Here, we show that along the North American Atlantic and Gulf coasts the meridional distributions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and carbonate mineral saturation state (Ω) are controlled by partial equilibrium with the atmosphere resulting in relatively low DIC and high Ω in warm southern waters and the opposite in cold northern waters. However, pH and the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) do not exhibit a simple spatial pattern and are controlled by local physical and net biological processes which impede equilibrium with the atmosphere. Along the Pacific coast, upwelling brings subsurface waters with low Ω and pH to the surface where net biological production works to raise their values. Different temperature sensitivities of carbonate properties and different timescales of influencing processes lead to contrasting property distributions within and among margins.

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Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.

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Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System (update)

The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems.

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Abyssal oceanic circulation and acidification during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO)

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is a global warming event that occurred at around 40 Ma and lasted about 500 kyr. We study this event in an abyssal setting of the Tasman Sea, using the IODP Core U1511B-16R, collected during the expedition 371. We analyse magnetic, mineralogical, and chemical parameters to investigate the evolution of the sea bottom conditions at this site during the middle Eocene. We observe significant changes indicating the response to the MECO perturbation. Mn oxides, in which Mn occurs under an oxidation state around +4, indicate a high Eh water environment. A prominent Mn anomaly, occurring just above the MECO interval, indicates a shift toward higher pH conditions shortly after the end of this event. Our results suggest more acid bottom water over the Tasman abyssal plain during the MECO, and an abrupt end of these conditions. This work provides the first evidence of MECO at abyssal depths and shows that acidification affected the entire oceanic water column during this event.

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A neural network-based analysis of the seasonal variability of surface total alkalinity on the East China Sea Shelf

Total alkalinity (AT) is an important variable in the regulation of the seawater carbonate chemistry system, determining the capacity to buffer changes in pH. In the coastal oceans, carbonate system dynamics are controlled by numerous processes such as land-derived inputs, biological activity, and coastal water dynamics, and seasonal alkalinity variations can play an important role in the regional carbon cycle. However, our understanding of these variations on the East China Sea (ECS) shelf remains poor due to limited observations. In order to estimate and investigate the seasonal variability of AT on the ECS shelf, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed using five cruise datasets from 2008 to 2018. The model used temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen to estimate AT with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ∼7 umol kg–1, and was applied to calculate AT for eight cruises during 2013–2016. In addition, monthly water column AT for the period 2000–2016 was obtained using temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen from the Changjiang Biology Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) Data. Spatial distributions, seasonal cycles and correlations of surface AT indicated that the seasonal fluctuation of the Changjiang River discharge is the major factor affecting seasonal variation of surface AT on the ECS shelf. The largest seasonal fluctuations of surface AT were found on the inner shelf near the Changjiang Estuary, which is under the influence of the Changjiang River discharge.

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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book