Posts Tagged 'socio-economy'

Towards a digital twin of the Italian coast

In the framework of the Destination Earth initiative, a long-term project to take advantage of the great amount of data produced by European agencies and scientific organizations around the world, the goal of building a Digital Twin of the Earth was born. The Digital Twin Earth is a highprecision digital model of the Earth that integrates various aspects of the Earth’s system in order to monitor and simulate natural phenomena and related human activities, and that is able to explore the past and present and predict the future.

To build a Digital Twin Earth it is required the scientific cooperation of European institutions, alongside with a set of technological tools such as High-Performance Computing (HPC), Cloud Computing and connectivity, Big Data, interoperable data and data standards, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to simulate and model the Earth’s systems processes.

On this work it is presented a web platform that uses open-source technologies to integrate a wide set of more than 60 geospatial layers of environmental data, provided openly and for free by Copernicus Marine Service, and Copernicus Land Monitoring Service, in addition to demographics data provided also open and free by WorldPop. With the data integrated on this platform a user is able to explore and analyze many land and sea layers. This platform is focused solely on the coastal areas of Italy, but its modular and extensible design is suitable for extending it and replicating it to other parts of the world.

The platform addresses the Digital Twin Earth’s Big Data and interoperability component by integrating several geospatial data sources using a mediator-wrapper integration architecture that leverages the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards for geospatial data, the Cloud Computing and connectivity component by providing a web-based interface to explore and analyze the integrated data, and the scientific cooperation component by enabling the possibility to save and share the analysis and discoveries made through the platform.

This work constitutes a proof of concept and an approach of what a Digital Twin of the Earth is capable of. To show it, a case study is presented analyzing ocean acidification on Genova and is whereabouts.

The development of the platform is a work in progress, which means that many more features and functionalities are to be included in following versions, having in mind a tool that is open, data-centric, and a good example of a Digital Twin Earth.

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California shellfish farmers: perceptions of changing ocean conditions and strategies for adaptive capacity

Highlights

  • Shellfish growers were interviewed about their experiences with environmental change.
  • Growers expressed concerns about multiple observed environmental changes.
  • Growers identified seventeen adaptive strategies.
  • Strategies can be categorized as policy/networking, farm management, and science.

Abstract

Coastal communities along the U.S. West Coast experience a myriad of environmental stressors, including exposure to low pH waters exacerbated by ocean acidification (OA). This can result in ecological and social consequences, making necessary the exploration and support for locally relevant strategies to adapt to OA and other environmental changes. The shellfish aquaculture industry along the West Coast is particularly vulnerable to OA, given the negative effects of low pH on shellfish survival and growth. As such, the social-ecological system exemplified by this industry serves as an opportunity to identify and address strategies for local adaptation. Through interviews conducted with West Coast shellfish farm owners and managers (‘growers’), we investigate perceptions of OA and environmental change and identify specific strategies for adaptation. We find that growers are concerned about OA, among many other environmental stressors such as marine pathogens and water temperature. However, growers are often unable to attribute changes in shellfish survival or health to these environmental factors due to a lack of data and the resources and network required to acquire and interpret these data. From these interviews, we identify a list of adaptive strategies growers employ or would like to employ to improve their overall adaptive capacity to multiple stressors (environmental, economic, political), which together, allow farms to weather periods of OA-induced stress more effectively. Very few studies to date have identified specific adaptive strategies derived directly from the communities being impacted. This work therefore fills a gap in the literature on adaptive capacity by amplifying the voices of those on the front lines of climate change and identifying explicit pathways for adaptation.

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Ocean futures for the world’s largest yellowfin tuna population under the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification

The impacts of climate change are expected to have profound effects on the fisheries of the Pacific Ocean, including its tuna fisheries, the largest globally. This study examined the combined effects of climate change on the yellowfin tuna population using the ecosystem model SEAPODYM. Yellowfin tuna fisheries in the Pacific contribute significantly to the economies and food security of Pacific Island Countries and Territories and Oceania. We use an ensemble of earth climate models to project yellowfin populations under a high greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC RCP8.5) scenario, which includes, the combined effects of a warming ocean, increasing acidification and changing ocean chemistry. Our results suggest that the acidification impact will be smaller in comparison to the ocean warming impact, even in the most extreme ensemble member scenario explored, but will have additional influences on yellowfin tuna population dynamics. An eastward shift in the distribution of yellowfin tuna was observed in the projections in the model ensemble in the absence of explicitly accounting for changes in acidification. The extent of this shift did not substantially differ when the three-acidification induced larval mortality scenarios were included in the ensemble; however, acidification was projected to weaken the magnitude of the increase in abundance in the eastern Pacific. Together with intensive fishing, these potential changes are likely to challenge the global fishing industry as well as the economies and food systems of many small Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The modelling framework applied in this study provides a tool for evaluating such effects and informing policy development.

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Emergent effects of global change on consumption depend on consumers and their resources in marine systems

Significance

Understanding the effects of global change on species interactions is important for predicting emergent ecosystem changes. Although environmental change can have direct effects on consumers, it is unclear if consumption will change in any generalizable way when both the consumer and resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Using meta-analysis, we show high variability in consumption rates in response to ocean acidification and warming, indicating conclusions that suggest consumption will generally increase or decrease in a future ocean are premature. We also demonstrate how the interpretation is dependent on whether only the consumer or both the consumer and its resource(s) are exposed to future conditions. Based on these findings, we provide a road map for future research in this area.

Abstract

A better understanding of how environmental change will affect species interactions would significantly aid efforts to scale up predictions of near-future responses to global change from individuals to ecosystems. To address this need, we used meta-analysis to quantify the individual and combined effects of ocean acidification (OA) and warming on consumption rates of predators and herbivores in marine ecosystems. Although the primary studies demonstrated that these environmental variables can have direct effects on consumers, our analyses highlight high variability in consumption rates in response to OA and warming. This variability likely reflects differences in local adaptation among species, as well as important methodological differences. For example, our results suggest that exposure of consumers to OA reduces consumption rates on average, yet consumption rates actually increase when both consumers and their resource(s) are concurrently exposed to the same conditions. We hypothesize that this disparity is due to increased vulnerability of prey or resource(s) in conditions of OA that offset declines in consumption. This hypothesis is supported by an analysis demonstrating clear declines in prey survival in studies that exposed only prey to future OA conditions. Our results illustrate how simultaneous OA and warming produce complex outcomes when species interact. Researchers should further explore other potential sources of variation in response, as well as the prey-driven component of any changes in consumption and the potential for interactive effects of OA and warming.

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A framework for assessing harvest strategy choice when considering multiple interacting fisheries and a changing environment: the example of eastern Bering Sea crab stocks

Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management aims to broaden the set of factors included in assessments and management decision making but progress with implementation remains limited. We developed a framework that examines the consequences of temporal changes in temperature and ocean pH on yield and profit of multiple interacting stocks including eastern Bering Sea (EBS) snow, southern Tanner, and red king crab. Our analyses integrate experimental work on the effects of temperature and ocean pH on growth and survival of larval and juvenile crab and monitoring data from surveys, fishery landings, and at-sea observer programs. The impacts of future changes in temperature and ocean pH on early life history have effects that differ markedly among stocks, being most pessimistic for Bristol Bay red king crab and most optimistic for EBS snow crab. Our results highlight that harvest control rules that aim to maximize yield lead to lower profits than those that aim to maximize profit. Similarly, harvest control rules that aim to maximize profit lead to lower yields than those that aim to maximize yield, but differences are less pronounced. Maximizing profits has conservation benefits, especially when the implemented harvest control rule reduces fishing mortality if population biomass is below a threshold level.

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Editorial: acidification and hypoxia in marginal seas

Editorial on the Research Topic
Acidification and Hypoxia in Marginal Seas

Ocean acidification and hypoxia (dissolved oxygen <2 mg L−1 or <62 μmol L−1) are universal environmental concerns that can impact ecological and biogeochemical processes, including element cycling, carbon sequestration, community shifts, contributing to biodiversity reduction, and reducing marine ecosystem services (Riebesell et al., 2000Feely et al., 20042009Andersson et al., 2005Doney, 2006Cohen and Holcomb, 2009Doney et al., 20092020Kleypas and Yates, 2009Ekstrom et al., 2015Gattuso et al., 2015). While the stressors are global in their occurrence, local and regional impacts might be enhanced and even more accelerated, thus requiring even greater and faster consideration (Doney et al., 2020).

The driving mechanisms of acidification and hypoxia are inextricably linked in near-shore and coastal habitats. Along coastal shelf and its adjacent marginal seas, where the natural variability of multiple stressors is high, human-induced eutrophication is additionally enhancing both local acidification and hypoxia. For example, the well-known eutrophication of surface waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico caused hypoxic conditions that result in a pH decrease by 0.34 in the oxygen-depleted bottom water, which is significantly more than the pH decrease via atmospheric CO2 sequestration alone (pH decrease by 0.11; Cai et al., 2011). Similar changes in coastal conditions involving biological respiration and atmospheric CO2 invasion have also been observed in other marginal seas, urbanized estuaries, salt marshes and mangroves (Feely et al., 200820102018Cai et al., 2011Howarth et al., 2011). Other natural and anthropogenic processes, such as increased wind intensity and coastal upwelling, enhanced stratification due to global warming, along with more intense benthic respiration, more frequent extreme events, oscillation of water circulations, and variations in the terrestrial carbon and/or alkalinity fluxes, etc., all influence the onset and maintenance of acidification and/or hypoxia. For example, coastal upwelling brings both low pH and hypoxic water from below and enhances acidification and hypoxia in the coastal regions (Feely et al., 2008). Although acidification and hypoxia in the open oceans have received considerable attention already, the advances in our understanding of the driving mechanisms and the temporal evolution under global climate change is still poorly understood, particularly with respect to the region-specific differences, various scales of temporal and spatial variability, predictability patterns, and interactive multiple stressor impacts. Therefore, coastal ecosystems have a much broader range of rates of change in pH than the open ocean does (Carstensen and Duarte, 2019). The importance of understanding acidification and hypoxia for the biogeochemical and ecosystem implications in marginal seas is essential for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy implementations in the future.

The scope of this Research Topic is to cover the most recent advances related to the status of acidification and hypoxia in marginal seas, the coupling mechanisms of multi-drivers and human impacts, ecosystem responses, prediction of their evolution over space and time, and under future climate change scenarios. The authors of this Research Topic contributed a total of 35 papers covering a wide variety of subjects spanning from acidification and/or hypoxia (OAH) status, the carbonate chemistry baseline and trends, the impacts of OAH on the habitat suitability and ecosystem implications, and the long-term changes and variability of OAH in marginal seas.

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Impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on ocean life and human health: a review

Highlights

  • Ocean climatic and non-climatic stressors have affected ocean life and human health
  • Field observation and modeling research for multiple ocean stressors.
  • Investigate the adaptation ability of the ocean ecosystem towards ocean stressors.
  • Investigate the effect of nutritional changes and chronic effects of contaminated seafood.
  • Develop and use plasma pyrolysis and gasification technology and promote a healthy and eco-living lifestyle.

Abstract

Ocean life forms are fundamentally well adapted to natural environmental variations, and they can even tolerate extreme conditions for a short time. However, several anthropogenic stressors are causing such drastic changes in the ocean ecosystem. First, the review attempts to outline the impact of climatic and non-climatic stressors on ocean life, and it also outlines the synergistic impact of both stressors. Then the impact on human health caused by the damage of the marine ecosystem has been discussed. Furthermore, the type of prior studies and current mitigation adaptation programs have been presented. Finally, some perspectives about future research and mitigation adaptation are offered.

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Fisheries surveys are essential ocean observing programs in a time of global change: a synthesis of oceanographic and ecological data from U.S. West Coast fisheries surveys

As climate change and other anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems accelerate in the 21st century, there is an increasing need for sustained ocean time series. A robust and collaborative network of regional monitoring programs can detect early signs of unanticipated changes, provide a more holistic understanding of ecosystem responses, and prompt faster management actions. Fisheries-related surveys that collect fisheries-independent data (hereafter referred to as “fisheries surveys”) are a key pillar of sustainable fisheries management and are ubiquitous in the United States and other countries. From the perspective of ocean observing, fisheries surveys offer three key strengths: (1) they are sustained due to largely consistent funding support from federal and state public sector fisheries agencies, (2) they collect paired physical, chemical, and biological data, and (3) they have large and frequently overlapping spatial footprints that extend into the offshore region. Despite this, information about fisheries survey data collection can remain poorly known to the broader academic and ocean observing communities. During the 2019 CalCOFI Symposium, marking the 70th anniversary of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI), representatives from 21 ocean monitoring programs on the North American West Coast came together to share the status of their monitoring programs and examine opportunities to leverage efforts to support regional ecosystem management needs. To increase awareness about collected ocean observing data, we catalog these ongoing ocean time series programs and detail the activities of the nine major federal or state fisheries surveys on the U.S. West Coast. We then present three case studies showing how fisheries survey data contribute to the understanding of emergent ecosystem management challenges: marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and contaminant spills. Moving forward, increased cross-survey analyses and cooperation can improve regional capacity to address emerging challenges. Fisheries surveys represent a foundational blueprint for ecosystem monitoring. As the international community moves toward a global strategy for ocean observing needs, fisheries survey programs should be included as data contributors.

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Climate change-accelerated ocean biodiversity loss & associated planetary health impacts

A planetary health perspective views human health as a function of the interdependent relationship between human systems and the natural systems in which we live. The planetary health impacts of climate change induced ocean biodiversity loss are little understood. Based on a systematic literature review, we summarize how climate change-induced ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation affect ocean biodiversity and their resulting planetary health impacts. These impacts on the planets’ natural and human systems include biospheric and human consequences for ecosystem services, food and nutrition security, human livelihoods, biomedical and pharmaceutical research, disaster risk management, and for organisms pathogenic to humans. Understanding the causes and effects of climate change impacts on the ocean and its biodiversity and planetary health is crucial for taking preventive, restorative and sustainable actions to ensure ocean biodiversity and its services. Future courses of action to mitigate climate change-related ocean biodiversity loss to support sound planetary health are discussed.

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Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System

The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.

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Firms adaptation to climate change through product innovation

Climate change will impose high costs on different societal actors, including firms and organizations, forcing them to adapt to this new situation. Although the relevance of implementing adaptation strategies is widely recognized, studies on firms’ adaptation to climate change are still in their infancy, especially regarding small and medium enterprises. Following a multi-stage approach, we analyze how small and medium enterprises in the marine food industry could adapt to climate-induced ocean acidification through product innovation. First, we use a co-production process with the firms’ representatives to gain insights into the industry’s adaptation opportunities, in which product innovation arises as the preferred strategy. Second, using a Discrete Choice Experiment, we test if consumers value both the mussels’ attributes likely affected by ocean acidification (sensory and nutritional) and the proposed new products developed to adapt to it. We also analyze preferences’ heterogeneity through a latent class model. Our results show that consumers value the attributes potentially affected by ocean acidification. We found high heterogeneity in consumer preferences regarding product types, disentangled into two classes (non-innovative consumers and consumers willing to innovate). We suggest that the industry could base its adaptation strategy on two pillars: 1) maintain the traditional format, thus satisfying 21% of the market (non-innovative consumers); 2) direct the innovation efforts towards the canned format, thus satisfying those consumers willing to innovate (79% of the market). Although consumers willing to innovate are prone to try new formats, the preferred alternatives are not radical innovations.

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The Patagonian fisheries over time: facts and lessons to be learned to face global change

Environmental and anthropic stressors have triggered unprecedented effects on the marine ecosystem. The global increase of marine temperature and acidification caused changes in fish availability and thus catches worldwide. Fostered by a legal framework favoring the investment in extractive capacity, industrial fishing in Atlantic Patagonia grew markedly since the 1960s, leading to the overexploitation of certain stocks. Nowadays, the regulatory system of individual transferable quotas is enforced for hake, but most resources in Patagonia continue being managed under an olympic system lacking planning for sustainability. We analyzed the vulnerability of the Patagonian fisheries to environmental (water temperature and acidification) and human stressors (overexploitation and market forces) in terms of their exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most of the Patagonian fisheries have operated in a scenario of low exposure to climate change. The shellfisheries, however, exhibited the highest sensitivity, as well as the lowest adaptive capacity, to acidification. Regarding the anthropic stressors, both the king crab and shrimp fisheries scored highly sensitive to overexploitation and market forces. Finally, the fisheries targeting the king crab and the Bonaerense demersal fish assemblage evidenced the lowest adaptive capacity against market forces. We propose management options for each case within the context of the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries.

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Trust in science and scientists among secondary school students in two out-of-school learning activities

Research on science outreach activities is often located in the interface between science communication and science education. The transferability of aims and objectives of one research field to the other offers great potential. The widely recognized aim of ‘trust in science’ in science communication is still less discussed in science education. However, when teaching emotive scientific topics such as climate change, vaccines or genetic engineering, students’ trust in science is of great importance. This paper presents a study of two interventions (NPartI = 443; NPartII = 333), to (1) assess the level of trust in science among secondary school students, and (2) to investigate the impact of outreach activities on the development of trust in science. Results showed that the mean level of trust in science among secondary school students is similar to the level among university students. We found a trust-enhancing effect of the interventions exclusively for students with a low prior level of trust (low-trustors). Furthermore, results indicated that high levels of trust in science can support learning in science outreach activities. These findings are particularly important when considering that increasing students’ level of trust in science appears to be especially important for low-trustors in order to prevent negative social tendencies.

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A review of national monitoring requirements to support offshore carbon capture and storage

There is an urgent need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. One method of achieving this is through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Geological structures that lie offshore under continental shelf seas offer huge CCS storage potential. An emerging marine industry is developing to exploit this potential and national marine monitoring agencies will soon need to consider the potential impacts of this emerging industry. This review of published literature is aimed at generalists responsible for the delivery of national marine monitoring, as well as those involved in the management of the marine environment. It briefly summarizes why the emerging offshore CCS industry is needed, how large it may be and what marine infrastructure may be involved. For the purposes of this paper, a hypothetical 20 Mtpa industry has been used to gauge the potential impact of a developing offshore CCS industry. The probability of CO2 leaks from such an industry is low. If they do occur, the spatial scale of impact will be small, and the potential environmental impacts will be low. Irrespective of how CO2 is transported or stored within shelf seas, leaked CO2 will enter the sea as a gas or as a solution dissolved in sediment pore water. CO2 as a gas will dissolve into seawater and/or directly vent to the atmosphere, depending on the initial conditions of the leak. The most probable source of leaks in a developed CCS industry is from pipelines (currently a 2-year event per 1000 km pipeline). The most probable source of leakage from geological storage is through abandoned wells (a 20- to 80-year event for a 20 Mtpa industry). The source of leaks from a CCS scheme with the potential to release the greatest mass of CO2 is through geological faults, as these may go undetected (if they occur) for long periods. The probability of leaks from geological storage, through faults or abandoned wells, is site dependent and minimized by the site selection process. The review concludes with recommended priorities for future marine science development.

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Using macroalgae to address UN Sustainable Development goals through CO2 remediation and improvement of the aquaculture environment

Among efforts to explore ways to achieve carbon neutrality globally or regionally, photosynthetic carbon sequestration by algae has been identified as having immense potential. Algae play a crucial role in providing the base of aquatic ecosystems, driving important biogeochemical cycles in oceans and freshwaters and, in so doing, act as a critical component for CO2 drawdown from the atmosphere and ameliorating global change. Furthermore, algae are used extensively in some societies as a source of food and have potential as feedstock for biofuels and as sources of bioactive chemicals. Such activities align strongly with a number of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we discuss how marine macroalgae might contribute to several of these goals by exploring their potential to enhance aquaculture, contribute to “Blue Carbon” drawdown of CO2 to ameliorate climate change (UN SDGs 13,14) and provide biomass as feedstock for biofuels (UN SDG 7) to reduce reliance on fossil fuel combustion. Though further work is required, we suggest that farming macroalgae in air has great potential for mitigation of CO2 emissions and improvement of aquaculture environments.

Summary: Photosynthetic activity of macroalgae, in addition to driving biosynthesis and biomass accumulation, can cause arise in pH due to CO2 depletion/HCO3. This can buffer the pH decrease associated with anthropogenic CO2 increases and ameliorate the effects of ocean acidification. Though increasing in magnitude, macroalgal aquaculture still represents only asmall fraction of the Cdrawdown by wild macroalgae populations and currently accounts for drawdown of an even lower fraction of global CO2 emissions. Nonetheless, scaling up of intensive macroalgal aquaculture could be one approach to contribute more to ameliorating anthropogenic CO2 emissions and ocean acidification. Modification of IMTA involving growth of the algae in air rather than in seawater could prove auseful means to help stabilize fluctuations in oxygen and pH in aquaculture operations.

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Public emotions and cognitions in response to ocean acidification

Highlights

  • This article examined cognitions and emotions regarding ocean acidification (OA).
  • Data were from a survey of 507 residents in Oregon (USA).
  • Knowledge about OA was low, and they perceived slight to moderate risks from OA.
  • As knowledge and risk increased, emotions, attitudes, and norms were more negative.
  • These cognitions and emotions became more negative as OA conditions deteriorated.

Abstract

Ecological studies on ocean acidification (OA) are abundant, but there are only a few studies examining the human dimensions (social science) of this threat to marine environments. This article explored public emotions and cognitions (attitudes, norms) toward OA, and how these concepts are related to knowledge and risk perceptions associated with this threat. Data were from a survey of residents in the coastal and most populated regions of Oregon, USA (n = 507). Respondents were grouped by their risk and knowledge, and shown four images depicting deteriorating conditions associated with OA, with questions measuring cognitions and emotions in response to each image. Knowledge about OA was quite low, and respondents perceived OA as a moderate risk to marine environments and a slight risk to themselves. As both knowledge and risk increased, awareness increased and emotions, attitudes, and norms became more negative, especially as conditions deteriorated. Implications and explanations of these findings were discussed.

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Use of aircraft in ocean alkalinity enhancement

Highlights

  • Aircraft can distribute slaked lime for ocean alkalinity enhancement.
  • A feasibility analysis is conducted, considering different discharging scenarios.
  • Scenarios assume various aircraft payload, discharge altitude and duration.
  • Energy penalty and costs are much higher than distribution in the ships’ wake.
  • Very high dispersion is reached, but effects on surface microlayer are still unclear.

Abstract

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is a proposed Negative Emissions Technology (NET) to remove atmospheric CO2 through the dispersion of alkaline materials (e.g.: calcium hydroxide, slaked lime, SL) into seawater, simultaneously counteracting ocean acidification. This study considers aircraft discharge of SL and its consequent dry deposition, extending to the marine environment a technique used in freshwater. A feasibility analysis assesses potential, costs, benefits, and disadvantages, considering scenarios with different assumptions on aircraft size, discharge height and duration, and wind conditions.

Due to the small size of SL particles (median diameter 9 μm), the dispersion from aircraft is highly enhanced by wind drift; the smallest SL particles may drift thousands of kilometres, especially if discharged from elevated altitudes. This could pose problems related to powders particles settling on remote lands.

Although calcium hydroxide maximum concentration into water (from 0.01 to 82 mg L−1) is for almost all the scenarios lower than the most stringent threshold for the ecosystem impacts on a 96-h exposure, the ecologically sensitive sea surface microlayer (SML) should be considered in detail.

The high CO2 emissions of the Landing to Take-Off Cycle (LTO) of the aircraft and their limited payload lead to a significant CO2 penalty, ranging in analysed scenarios between 28% and 77% of the CO2 removal potential; very fast discharge could reduce the penalty to 11% – 32%. Preliminary cost analysis shows that the cost of the SL discharge through aircraft is high, between € 30 and € 1846 per ton of CO2 removed (neglecting the lime cost), substantially higher than the cost for discharge by surface vessels resulting from previous studies, which restricts the practical use of this strategy.

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Emerging trends in science and news of climate change threats to and adaptation of aquaculture

Highlights

  • Temp & sea level rise threats to aquaculture were the main focus in science & news.
  • Focus on Asia, Europe, & N./C. America accounted for 70% of studies.
  • At least 10 countries linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change.
  • Global papers cited technology for adaption, while regional papers cited governance.

Abstract

Food production is one of the main contributors to climate change, but is also vulnerable to the resulting stressors, which is well documented for agriculture and fisheries. Attention is now turning to the rapidly growing aquaculture sector and its vulnerability to a changing climate. Here we explore the extent to which climate stressors and aquaculture, and concomitant adaptation strategies, are studied in science and addressed in public media (news) to assess focus and attribution of climate change. We reviewed 555 scientific publications and 228 news media articles on climate stressors, impacts, and adaptation approaches with respect to aquaculture. Results indicate that coverage in the scientific community of climate stressors on aquaculture have not kept pace with growth of production in the sector, especially compared to agriculture and fisheries. Temperature, sea level rise and ocean acidification were most often the focus in science (44%) and news (42%), suggesting some alignment. Combined coverage tended to revolve around Asia, Europe, and North/Central America (70%) and at least 10 countries’ science and news linked current impacts on aquaculture to climate change. The majority of scientific articles addressing adaptation were regional rather than global, and emphasized governance and institutional strategies over technological solutions. In all, this research highlights the comparatively nascent focus of climate change implications for aquaculture, narrow emphasis of stressors, but fairly representative coverage of regions with more aquaculture. Our work highlights the need for more research and public awareness of the social and ecological climate change threats and impacts on, and adaptive strategies for aquaculture.

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Modelling ocean acidification effects with life stage-specific responses alters spatiotemporal patterns of catch and revenues of American lobster, Homarus americanus

Ocean acidification (OA) affects marine organisms through various physiological and biological processes, yet our understanding of how these translate to large-scale population effects remains limited. Here, we integrated laboratory-based experimental results on the life history and physiological responses to OA of the American lobster, Homarus americanus, into a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project future climate change effects on species distribution, abundance, and fisheries catch potential. Ocean acidification effects on juvenile stages had the largest stage-specific impacts on the population, while cumulative effects across life stages significantly exerted the greatest impacts, albeit quite minimal. Reducing fishing pressure leads to overall increases in population abundance while setting minimum size limits also results in more higher-priced market-sized lobsters (> 1 lb), and could help mitigate the negative impacts of OA and concurrent stressors (warming, deoxygenation). However, the magnitude of increased effects of climate change overweighs any moderate population gains made by changes in fishing pressure and size limits, reinforcing that reducing greenhouse gas emissions is most pressing and that climate-adaptive fisheries management is necessary as a secondary role to ensure population resiliency. We suggest possible strategies to mitigate impacts by preserving important population demographics.

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Novel environmental conditions due to climate change in the world’s largest marine protected areas

Highlights

  • Up to 97% of very large marine protected areas will contain novel conditions
  • Very large marine protected areas in the tropics most exposed to novelty
  • Novel conditions for pH emerge as soon as 2030
  • 44.9% of the ocean will see novel conditions by 2060, up to 87% by 2100

Science for society

Oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface and provide us with goods and services ranging from food and energy to cultural resources and identity. However, climate change threatens the availability of these ocean-derived benefits. Climate change is turning once familiar and stable ocean conditions into unfamiliar and novel ones. These changes might even be significant enough to undermine much of the work done to protect the ocean.

This research investigates the timing and impact of climate change on the oceans and the largest MPAs. We show that a majority (up to 87%) of the ocean will have novel conditions, as will almost all of the MPAs we examined (97%). These novel conditions may cause culturally and economically important species to migrate or possibly go extinct. Understanding when, where, and how these changes occur can help inform ocean and climate policy that connects people across space and time.

Summary

Climate change is altering the biogeochemical conditions of the ocean, leading to the emergence of novel environmental conditions that may drastically affect the performance of very large marine protected areas (VLMPAs) (area > 100,000 km2). Given the prominent role that VLMPAs play in ocean conservation, determining when and where novel conditions will emerge within VLMPAs is vital for ensuring a healthy ocean in the future. Here, using a non-parametric approach to detect novelty, we show that 60%–87% of the ocean and 76%–97% of VLMPAs are expected to contain novel conditions across multiple biogeochemical variables by 2100, with novel conditions in pH emerging by 2030. With most VLMPAs expected to contain environmental conditions unlike those currently within their boundaries, and given the likelihood of any of these climate futures unfolding, present-day management will need to consider alterations to current and future VLMPA design and use.

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