Posts Tagged 'socio-economy'

Bioeconomic analysis of the impact of ocean acidification associated with low recruitment of Isostichopus badionotus and implications for adaptive fishery management in the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The impact that ocean acidification (OA) could generate in the fisheries of Isostichopus badionotus at the north of the Yucatan Peninsulta, Mexico, was analysed by reducing the value of a parameter of the Beverton-Holt recruitment function, in accordance with the acidification scenarios of the Intergovermental Panel Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The behaviour of the stock and the resulting fishery were analysed in a bioeconomic model structured by age, taking into account different market prices and fishing efforts. The results were compared in decision matrices that used the MiniMax and MaxMin criteria to determine the management strategy that best reduced the impact of  acidification. The largest stock reduction occurred during the first years of exploitation (B10>B15/BO) and all the variables that were considered did stabilize with time, reaching bioeconomic equilibrium. The worst scenario for not considering acidification occurred with low market prices, while the increase in price decreased the exploitation rate. The recruitment reduction determined the maximum effort that should have been applied; under such conditions it is recommended to operate an effort of 137 boats, considering the best market price.

Continue reading ‘Bioeconomic analysis of the impact of ocean acidification associated with low recruitment of Isostichopus badionotus and implications for adaptive fishery management in the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico’

AMAP assessment 2018: Arctic ocean acidification

Ocean acidification, resulting from changes in ocean chemistry induced by increasing seawater carbon dioxide concentrations, is one of the growing challenges to marine organisms, ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling. Some of the fastest rates of ocean acidification currently observed are in the Arctic Ocean, with important physiological and geochemical thresholds already surpassed. Projections indicate that large parts of the Arctic Ocean are undergoing marine carbonate system changes that will incur significant shifts in ecological status over the coming decades unless global carbon emissions are drastically curtailed. These changes in water chemistry and biology will have significant socio-ecological and economic consequences at the local to global level.

The first AMAP Arctic Ocean acidification report (AMAP, 2013) presented a scientific assessment on the changing state of ocean acidification in the Arctic and provided an Arctic-wide perspective on the rapid increase in seawater acidity. The report concluded that ocean acidification was affecting the Arctic marine environment and ecosystems.

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Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery

Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.

Continue reading ‘Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery’

Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change

Climate change is an immediate and future threat to food security globally. The consequences for fisheries and agriculture production potential are well studied, yet the possible outcomes for aquaculture (that is, aquatic farming)—one of the fastest growing food sectors on the planet—remain a major gap in scientific understanding. With over one-third of aquaculture produced in marine waters and this proportion increasing, it is critical to anticipate new opportunities and challenges in marine production under climate change. Here, we model and map the effect of warming ocean conditions (Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 8.5) on marine aquaculture production potential over the next century, based on thermal tolerance and growth data of 180 cultured finfish and bivalve species. We find heterogeneous patterns of gains and losses, but an overall greater probability of declines worldwide. Accounting for multiple drivers of species growth, including shifts in temperature, chlorophyll and ocean acidification, reveals potentially greater declines in bivalve aquaculture compared with finfish production. This study addresses a missing component in food security research and sustainable development planning by identifying regions that will face potentially greater climate change challenges and resilience with regards to marine aquaculture in the coming decades. Understanding the scale and magnitude of future increases and reductions in aquaculture potential is critical for designing effective and efficient use and protection of the oceans, and ultimately for feeding the planet sustainably.

Continue reading ‘Global change in marine aquaculture production potential under climate change’

For a world without boundaries: connectivity between marine tropical ecosystems in times of change

Tropical mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and coral reefs are among the most diverse and productive ecosystems on Earth. Their evolution in dynamic, and ever-changing environments means they have developed a capacity to withstand and recover (i.e., are resilient) from disturbances caused by anthropogenic activities and climatic perturbations. Their resilience can be attributed, in part, to a range of cross-ecosystem interactions whereby one ecosystem creates favorable conditions for the maintenance of its neighbors. However, in recent decades, expanding human populations have augmented anthropogenic activities and driven changes in global climate, resulting in increased frequencies and intensities of disturbances to these ecosystems. Many contemporary environments are failing to regenerate following these disturbances and consequently, large-scale degradation and losses of ecosystems on the tropical seascape are being observed. This chapter reviews the wealth of available literature focused on the tropical marine seascape to investigate the degree of connectivity between its ecosystems and how cross-ecosystem interactions may be impacted by ever-increasing anthropogenic activities and human-induced climate change. Furthermore, it investigates how disruption and/or loss of these cross-ecosystem interactions may impact the success of neighboring ecosystems and consequently, the highly-valued ecosystem services to which these ecosystems give rise. The findings from this review highlight the degree of connectivity between mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs, and emphasizes the need for a holistic, seascape-wide research approach to successfully protect and preserve these critically important ecosystems and their associated services for future generations.

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Acidification in Nordic waters: status, trends and implications for marine species

Recent studies on marine life show that the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration can have negative impacts on growth and survival of groups of marine life such as corals and other calcifying organisms.

Increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, and hence in the oceans, lead to decreasing pH or increasing acidification, a process known as ocean acidification (OA). During the last century, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has risen from around 280 ppm to 400 ppm; this has led to a pH decrease in the oceans of 0.1. OA currently takes place at a rate corresponding to approximately -0.02 pH unit per decade and an increase in CO2 at around 2 ppm per year. The projections for atmospheric CO2 concentration is an increase to around 1000 ppm at the end of the century, which will lower pH in the oceans by 0.3-0.4. Although this may appear relatively small, a decrease in pH of 0.1 corresponds to an increase in acidity (“free” protons) of 25%, and 0.3-0.4 corresponds to an increase of 200-250%.

Coastal systems experience changes in pH over time exceeding those of the ocean by several orders of magnitude,
but the field is poorly studied, and the spatial variation is large. The Baltic Sea is no exception to this. pH changes in the Baltic Sea are tightly coupled to nutrient input, alkalinity (AT) of freshwater sources in addition to increased CO2 levels and warming. Acidification trends vary substantially among coastal systems and time of year, but have been reported up to 10 times faster than OA.

The TRIACID project has mapped acidification trends in the Baltic Sea during the past 40 years, in different regions, and identified areas with a general lack of data. The project has described spatial variation and trends in pH status, and the main drivers of changing pH have been identified. Given the spatial variation, the data gaps, and all the different drivers a detailed projection of the development is complicated but since we expect increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, rising temperatures and decreasing nutrient input, the acidification trend will continue or accelerate in most of the region.

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Collaborative ocean acidification mapping for a changing Salish Sea? transdisciplinary and transboundary barriers

Fragmented Ocean Acidification (OA) data and collaboration efforts between disciplines and stakeholders for the Salish Sea are barriers to a more effective transboundary ecosystem understanding and governance. While there are presently efforts to research and monitor OA, there is a significant gap of coordinated efforts throughout the entire Sea, especially around OA biological indicators. To help bridge the gaps and increase collaborative resources, I conducted an exploratory case study of OA data mapping for the changing Salish Sea. For this project, I addressed the following research questions. First, what are the most informative ecological indicators to discern critical climate risk trends from OA? Second, how can OA indicators in the Salish Sea efficiently be mapped? Through a multi-iterative process of semi-structured interviews, online survey, analytic deliberation, and participant observations from the 2018 Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference, I developed an OA online prototype story map. Unexpectedly, I found that transboundary data was unavailable and there was a surprising lack of collaboration between US and Canadian institutions and individuals. Therefore, this project has also evolved to focus on the stark differences in perceptions of collaboration, governance, and transboundary barriers in the Salish Sea. Due to this project evolution, I have additionally developed five prescriptions to address these barriers and address collaboration around OA in the Salish Sea:  1. Develop a Research Coordination Network (RCN) for the Salish Sea  2. Create a Transdisciplinary Framework with Governance Indicators for the Salish Sea  3. Expand Prototype Map with Shared Data.

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OA-ICC HIGHLIGHTS

Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book