Posts Tagged 'policy'

Warming, thresholds and extinctions: lessons from past hyperthermals on land and at sea

The current biodiversity crisis is driven primarily by human activities, including global warming resulting from human greenhouse-gas emissions, which act as multifaceted environmental stressors. Rising temperatures compromise organismal performance through thermal stress, creating demographic erosion and triggering ecological cascades that propagate across populations and ecosystems. The fossil record offers a unique archive for evaluating these dynamics, documenting biological responses to a wide spectrum of past climate regimes, including warming events far exceeding those experienced in human history and the conditions projected to take place during the coming century. Drawing on events across the Phanerozoic, we emphasize mechanisms that link climate change to extinction in both marine and terrestrial realms. Extreme ancient warming episodes reveal a recurring “deadly trio” of global warming, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, processes that mirror the emerging drivers of the contemporary crisis. Focusing on the Cenozoic and the Pleistocene Ice Ages, we review mammalian responses to rapid climatic fluctuations and highlight the synergistic contribution of Homo to Late Quaternary megafaunal collapse. Our synthesis shows that past crises provide key insights into extinction thresholds, rates of environmental change, and the vulnerability of ecological functions under warming. Critically, comparison with ancient analogs suggests that future extinction risk on land may exceed anything observed during past warming episodes, due to the unprecedented velocity of modern warming combined with direct anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss and fragmentation. In the oceans, projected warming and deoxygenation point toward extinction intensities comparable to those of the most extreme hyperthermal events. Collectively, the evidence indicates that Earth is approaching temperature conditions historically associated with major extinction episodes.

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The role of international courts and tribunals in shaping expertise – the ITLOS advisory opinion on climate change in an Arctic expertise context

Despite a considerable focus in the literature on how expertise comes to be defined, there has so far been little interest in how expertise is shaped in the wording of treaties and the subsequent application by courts. This presents a gap in the literature, as international treaties and courts have significant impact on the definition of expertise. Set in an Arctic context, where Western science and Indigenous Knowledge are increasingly considered to be complementary bodies of knowledge, this paper uses a decolonial approach to demonstrate how international law and the courts that apply it can impact processes of expertise-building. The paper concludes that there is two-way relationship between international law and expertise (international courts are influenced by, and influence, how expertise is perceived). This becomes relevant when the underlying processes on which the courts base their definition of expertise are shaped by colonial dynamics, as there is a danger of maintaining existing colonial legacies, which can negatively impact the ongoing process of re-defining expertise in a decolonial manner.

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Coastal jellyfish blooms: causes, consequences, and policy frameworks for sustainable management

Highlights

  • Jellyfish blooms creates significant challenges for sustainable coastal management.
  • Blooms are caused by combined influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors.
  • Management approaches can significantly reduce the coastal pollution.
  • Multidisciplinary approach is necessary for long−term success in mitigating jellyfish blooms.

Abstract

The growing occurrence of coastal jellyfish blooms worldwide creates significant challenges for sustainable coastal management. In recent years, occurrence of the jellyfish bloom has also been reported in the coastal area of Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, which tend to disrupt the ecosystem balance as well as decreases the appeal of the beach. These blooms are shaped by combined influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors including ocean warming, nutrient enrichment, overfishing, destruction of lobster, sea turtle, and other natural predators, and habitat modification, particularly the expansion of coastal infrastructure that facilitate polyp persistence. Therefore, this review synthesizes worldwide patterns of coastal jellyfish blooms, identifies the key drivers of bloom development and recurrence, and analyzes their ecological and socio−economic impacts. Special attention is given to the consequences for fisheries, aquaculture operations, and tourism, as well as to the role of human mediated environments in reinforcing bloom formation. Moreover, management strategies applied across regions are critically reviewed, revealing uneven implementation and limited long−term effectiveness. By bridging scientific evidence with management needs, this review underscores the need for integrated adaptive frameworks to manage jellyfish blooms under ongoing environmental change.

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Global change reshapes marine microbial communities, functions and One Health outcomes

Marine microorganisms underpin primary production, biogeochemical cycling and host-associated symbioses, supporting climate regulation, coastal protection, fisheries and other ecosystem services. Rapid global change, including ocean warming and marine heatwaves, acidification, deoxygenation, eutrophication, pollution and overuse reshape microbial communities and their functions across marine habitats. These changes can alter carbon, nitrogen and sulfur cycles, promote microbialization and harmful algal blooms, disrupt host–microbiome associations and modify pathogen and antimicrobial resistance dynamics, collectively amplifying the ecological and societal impacts of global change. This Review frames marine microbiomes as cross-scale mediators that translate external pressures, including climate change, pollution, eutrophication and habitat degradation, into altered microbial metabolism, biogeochemical fluxes, host-associated health outcomes, ecosystem service consequences and broader One Health risks. We synthesize shared mechanisms and cross-habitat patterns, highlight cases in which microbiome interventions and stewardship could mitigate impacts and/or accelerate recovery, and outline management options ranging from the reduction of local stressors to emerging microbiome stewardship approaches in ecosystem restoration. Building upon this, we outline pathways for embedding marine microbiome science into globally coordinated One Health strategies, operational management protocols and financing frameworks that align economic incentives with long-term ecosystem and public health outcomes.

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Climate-driven coral reef change and socio-ecological resilience: a bibliometric and systematic review

Purpose

This study examines the evolution of research on climate-driven coral reef change and socio-ecological resilience through an integrated bibliometric and systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published between 2002 and 2025. The study addresses the fragmentation of existing research across ecological, socio-economic and governance perspectives by synthesizing evidence on climate stressors, ecosystem services, human well-being, adaptation strategies and resilience. It aims to map publication trends, identify dominant thematic structures and provide a comprehensive evidence base to support policy development and sustainable management of coral reef ecosystems and reef-dependent coastal communities.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed a combined bibliometric and systematic review approach following the PRISMA 2020 framework. A total of 588 peer-reviewed publications published between 2002 and 2025 were retrieved from the Scopus database after a structured screening process. Bibliometric analysis was conducted using Bibliometrix (R) and VOSviewer to examine publication trends, citation patterns, collaboration networks and thematic structures. The systematic review synthesized evidence on ecosystem services, human well-being, adaptation strategies and governance mechanisms, enabling an integrated assessment of climate-driven coral reef change and socio-ecological resilience.

Findings

The findings reveal a rapidly expanding and increasingly interdisciplinary research field, characterized by strong growth in scientific output and extensive international collaboration. Six major thematic clusters were identified, centering on climate stressors, coral biology, ecosystem services, adaptation, governance and resilience. The review shows that fisheries, tourism, biodiversity conservation and coastal protection are the most frequently discussed ecosystem services linking reef health to human well-being. Key adaptation pathways include ecosystem-based management, marine-protected areas (MPAs), participatory governance, restoration initiatives and livelihood diversification, all of which contribute to strengthening socio-ecological resilience under climate change.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited to publications indexed in the Scopus database and restricted to English-language literature, which may have excluded relevant studies from other databases and regional sources. The findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the intellectual development of coral reef socio-ecological resilience research and highlight the need for greater integration of ecological, economic and governance perspectives. Future research should strengthen links between ecological indicators and socio-economic outcomes, particularly in underrepresented regions, to support more context-specific adaptation strategies and evidence-based coral reef management.

Practical implications

The findings provide valuable guidance for policymakers, marine resource managers and conservation practitioners seeking to enhance coral reef resilience under climate change. The study highlights the importance of integrating ecosystem-based management, MPAs, participatory governance and livelihood diversification into coral reef management frameworks. By demonstrating the strong link between reef ecosystem health and human well-being, the study supports the development of adaptation policies that simultaneously protect biodiversity, sustain ecosystem services, strengthen coastal livelihoods and improve the resilience of reef-dependent communities facing increasing climate-related risks.

Social implications

The study underscores the critical role of coral reefs in supporting food security, employment, income generation and coastal protection for millions of people in tropical coastal communities. By highlighting the social consequences of climate-driven reef degradation, the findings emphasize the need for inclusive adaptation strategies that reduce vulnerability and strengthen community resilience. The study also reinforces the importance of participatory governance and livelihood diversification in enhancing social well-being, promoting equitable resource management and improving the capacity of reef-dependent populations to adapt to climate-related environmental change.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by integrating bibliometric analysis and systematic review methods to provide a comprehensive synthesis of climate-driven coral reef change and socio-ecological resilience research. Unlike previous reviews that focus primarily on ecological or social dimensions, it bridges ecological disturbance, ecosystem services, human well-being and governance perspectives within a single analytical framework. By mapping the intellectual structure of the field and identifying key adaptation pathways, the study offers novel insights into the interconnected nature of reef resilience and provides a valuable evidence base for future research, policy, and management.

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Green total factor productivity and ocean health: a global panel analysis of institutional, environmental and economic drivers

The deterioration of ocean health has become a critical global challenge due to increasing pressures from economic activities, environmental degradation, and institutional weaknesses. This study examines the impacts of economic growth, capture fisheries production, greenhouse gas emissions, and government effectiveness on ocean health at the global level during the period 2012–2022, using the Ocean Health Index (OHI) as a multidimensional measure of marine sustainability. A quantitative research design based on panel data analysis is employed using secondary data collected from the Ocean Health Index database, the World Bank, and Our World in Data. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root tests, multicollinearity diagnostics, and panel model specification tests are conducted, followed by fixed-effects estimation with country-clustered standard errors. An environmentally extended Solow-residual method is then employed to calculate the Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP) growth and added to an extended model of ocean health. The results indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between economic growth and ocean health, and a negative and significant relationship between government effectiveness and ocean health. Ocean health is statistically significant and negatively associated with the growth of GTFP, while both capture fisheries production and GHGs are statistically insignificant. The study demonstrates that ocean health is a multidimensional socio-ecological phenomenon shaped by the interaction of economic, environmental, institutional factors and productivity related aspects. These findings contribute to the literature by integrating economic, environmental, institutional and productivity related dimensions to provide a broader understanding of the factors associated with ocean health across countries.

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Putting a time scale on emerging climate change stressors: a vulnerability index for Atlantic Ocean marine ecosystem services

Highlights

  • Climate stressor emergence is highly heterogeneous across the Atlantic.
  • Multi-stressor emergence before 2100 is projected for all Atlantic EEZs.
  • Vulnerability is driven by emerging climate stressors, amplified by a high sensitivity of habitats and communities, and a low adaptive capacity.
  • Lower vulnerability is partly driven by robust governance and infrastructure.
  • Adaptive responses must address socio-economic differences and variable exposure to stressors.

Abstract

Marine ecosystem services underpin human wellbeing and support resilient socio-ecological systems, yet existing vulnerability assessments remain fragmented, often focusing on isolated industries and overlooking the whole-system socio-ecological context. To bridge this gap, we develop a comprehensive Vulnerability Index to assess marine ecosystem service vulnerability to emerging climate stressors in the Atlantic. Using high-resolution ocean simulations and moving beyond traditional long-term projections, we employ the Time of Emergence metric to address actionable decision-making timescales (2–3 decades). We found that all Atlantic marine ecosystem services are projected to be exposed to multiple emerging stressors before 2100, though the sequence and the timing of emergence are highly heterogenous. Overall vulnerability is highest in tropical West Africa due to the early emergence of hypoxia and sea level rise extremes compound by low adaptive capacity. Additional hotspots are found in subpolar and polar regions driven by rapid sea ice retreat and the sensitivities of region-specific habitats alongside a high dependence on marine ecosystems. Coupled with socio-ecological data, we determined which services (provisioning, regulatory and cultural) are most sensitive to potential impacts in each EEZ. We anticipate this index to be a starting point to develop targeted vulnerability indices for specific ecosystem services and regions. Mitigative and adaptive efforts must be multi-scale and tailored to national and local contexts, addressing not only socio-economic differences but also variable climate stressors and their impacts. Uncertainties associated with time series data gaps and indicator aggregation, particularly for island and remote territories, highlight the need for targeted national adaptation.

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Navigating uncertainty in the Pacific Arctic region: toward adaptive fisheries management under climate change and ocean acidification impacts

Fisheries management under climate change in the Pacific Arctic Region faces profound uncertainties, particularly concerning the trajectory of environmental drivers and the biological responses of fish species to ocean acidification (OA), which affect both stock productivity and spatial distributions. Here, we employed the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model to project century-scale changes in abundance, maximum catch potential, and species distributions for key commercial fish under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and two alternative assumptions about OA responses, namely without OA effect and with OA effect parameterized as increases in basal metabolic rate and elevated larval mortality. Fishing mortality was treated as a management control variable, and the minimax regret criterion was applied to select the fishing mortality strategy that minimizes the worst-case loss in landed value relative to the scenario-specific optimal strategy across all climate and OA response scenarios. Results indicate strong regional heterogeneity: southern LMEs (East Bering Sea, West Bering Sea, and Aleutians) experienced persistent declines in abundance and maximum catch potential, with negative responses to OA further amplifying reductions, whereas the northern LME (Northern Bering–Chukchi Seas) exhibited substantial gains. These poleward shifts were accompanied by increased spatial aggregation, highlighting that species are not only shifting northward but also becoming more spatially concentrated within suitable habitats. Assessments that ignore OA effects risk overestimating long-term yields and exposing fisheries to productivity and revenue losses. Precautionary reductions in fishing mortality consistently minimized long-term regret across most species and LMEs. These findings highlight the critical interplay between climate change, OA effects, and management decisions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive fisheries management in the rapidly changing Pacific Arctic Region.

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Connecting international ocean, climate and biodiversity governance to protect deep-sea life

Deep-ocean biodiversity plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle and Earth’s climate system. Despite this critical function, international biodiversity and climate change governance frameworks have rarely considered deep-sea life to any considerable extent historically. Recent developments create opportunities to close this gap, including through the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ Agreement), the Paris Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). We review the history and developments of these conventions to date regarding how they address the interface between climate, biodiversity, and the deep ocean, and use this historical overview to identify specific opportunities and mechanisms that can be used to sustain and protect life in the deep ocean more effectively and coherently going forward. Practical suggestions include incorporating climate and carbon considerations in the creation of marine protected areas and other area-based management tools under the BBNJ Agreement, establishing cross-cutting mechanisms that can align efforts under the UNFCCC, CBD, and the BBNJ Agreement, and, under the Paris Agreement, incorporating deep-ocean actions in nationally determined contributions, reconsidering what counts as mitigation or adaptation to encourage consideration of carbon conservation actions, and ensuring that climate change mitigation efforts do not harm deep-ocean biodiversity.

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The climate observing system – ocean acidification

The ocean has absorbed approximately one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since the industrial era, moderating atmospheric warming while driving significant changes in marine carbonate chemistry. Collectively referred to as ocean acidification (OA), these changes include declining seawater pH, reduced carbonate ion availability, and decreasing calcium carbonate saturation states, with consequences for marine ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and ocean services. Detecting and quantifying OA is challenging because anthropogenic trends are superimposed on substantial natural variability across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, no single variable, platform, or observing approach can adequately characterize OA.

This chapter reviews the principal components of the contemporary OA observing system and the methodologies used to quantify changes in marine carbonate chemistry. It introduces the marine carbonate system and the analytical methods used to measure key OA variables, including pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). The chapter examines the role of sustained time-series stations in detecting long-term trends and distinguishing anthropogenic change from natural variability, highlighting evidence for widespread acidification across open-ocean, coastal, polar, and marginal seas. The complementary contributions of surface underway observations, repeat hydrography programs, and autonomous observing platforms are reviewed, including major international initiatives such as SOCONET, SOCAT, GO-SHIP, GLODAP, and Biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo). Particular emphasis is placed on how these observing elements provide complementary information across spatial and temporal scales and together form an integrated OA observing system.

Finally, the chapter discusses uncertainty assessment, trend attribution, data integration, and the role of international coordination mechanisms, including GOOS, GCOS, IOCCP, and GOA-ON. It further examines how OA observations support climate assessments, model evaluation, ecosystem-risk assessments, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14.3.1 reporting, and emerging monitoring, reporting, and verification needs associated with marine carbon dioxide removal.

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Inside the Extinction Envelope: a systemic review and meta-analysis of paleoclimate extinction markers with comments on the necessary array of last-threshold interventions

Every element of the causal chain that produced the five largest mass extinctions of the last half-billion years is presently active in the Earth system. The rate of the modern perturbation exceeds every peer-reviewed paleoclimate reference case. A six-intervention portfolio, deployed together at wartime industrial scale beginning now, is the physically necessary and sufficient response. The window in which that portfolio remains fully effective closes between 2028 and 2040. The anthropogenic-versus-feedback tipping point is expected between 2035 and 2040; corrected for the at-least-order-of-magnitude higher rate of contemporary carbon release, loss of agency — the point at which coordinated intervention can no longer arrest the cascade — arrives 200 to 400 years after feedback engagement under sustained portfolio deployment, and collapses onto the tipping point itself under any scenario in which the portfolio is not deployed within the 2028–2040 window.

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Microplastics in a warming ocean with coupled climate change interactions and implications for marine ecosystem functioning

Highlights

  • Climate driven processes intensify microplastic fragmentation and redistribution.
  • Microplastics disrupt carbon cycling and climate sensitive ocean processes.
  • Warming acidification and ice melt amplify microplastic impacts on marine biota.
  • Polar ice acts as a major reservoir and emerging source of legacy microplastics.
  • Integrating microplastics into climate policy is critical for ocean resilience.

Abstract

Microplastics (MPs) pollution and climate change are now recognized as two pervasive and interacting stressors reshaping marine ecosystems, yet their combined effects remain insufficiently integrated within marine pollution research. This review synthesizes current global evidence on how climate-driven processes modulate the sources, transport, fate, and ecological impacts of MPs, and how MPs in turn influence climate-linked ocean processes. A systematic literature review was conducted following PRISMA principles, drawing on peer-reviewed studies retrieved from major scientific databases without temporal restriction. A total of 205 publications included for qualitative synthesis. The results demonstrate that ocean warming, acidification, sea-ice melt, extreme weather events, and altered circulation patterns intensify MP fragmentation, redistribution, and bioavailability across marine environments. Warming accelerates polymer degradation and enhances biological interactions, acidification alters surface chemistry and toxicity, and polar ice melt releases large reservoirs of legacy MPs into vulnerable ecosystems. Evidence further shows that MPs disrupt key climate-related processes, including primary productivity, nutrient cycling, and the biological carbon pump, thereby creating feedbacks that may weaken oceanic climate regulation. Combined exposure to MPs and climate stressors amplifies physiological stress, reduces growth and reproductive performance, and compromises resilience across multiple trophic levels. These findings highlight that MPs are not passive contaminants but active modifiers of climate-sensitive marine systems. Integrating MP dynamics into climate research, monitoring frameworks, and policy instruments is therefore essential. Addressing plastic pollution alongside climate mitigation and adaptation strategies will be critical to safeguarding marine ecosystem functioning under future global change.

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A solution mitigating ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) in coastal marine ecosystems

Globally, oceans are becoming increasingly acidic and hypoxic due to anthropogenic carbon emissions increasing atmospheric CO2, much of which is absorbed by the ocean. Recent research demonstrates that wastewater discharges, particularly in densely populated regions with large wastewater treatment plants, exacerbate ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH). Excess nutrients contained in treated wastewater amplify OAH processes, negatively impacting marine life. In the United States, state and federal agencies have the authority to manage nutrient levels in treated sewage in order to protect marine ecosystems. This study includes a compilation of data on OAH and wastewater inputs across key areas—biological thresholds, wastewater plant data, treatment technology options, and policy recommendations—to provide guidance to regulators in reducing excess nutrients that contribute to OAH. A series of steps provided to coastal managers focuses on wastewater discharge as a concrete example of how to translate an emerging scientific understanding into a concrete policy and regulatory recommendation. Wastewater discharges that cause or contribute to OAH conditions in ocean-receiving waters have infrequently been regulated to reduce or eliminate impacts despite the efficacy of increasingly common treatment technologies. With a focus on the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), this study recommends implementing more stringent wastewater treatment plant regulations by moving to technology-based standards to limit nitrogen concentrations in treated sewage discharged off the coast. If implemented, these limitations would minimize wastewater contributions to OAH and reduce its harmful impacts, safeguarding coastal ecosystems and economies. The nutrient management framework outlined here can be replicated nationally using the Clean Water Act framework, or internationally using a similar regulatory framework. Sewage effluent discharges and overflows to the ocean occur in all coastal states and territories, and mitigating these nutrient contributions is a management issue for all coastal managers. In this study, we present a nutrient management framework that can be integrated into regional and national strategies to help coastal regions mitigate OAH impacts on marine ecosystems.

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The future of aquatic food systems: climate change adaptation and resilience strategies – a narrative review

Across the world’s oceans, lakes, and rivers, climate change is reshaping fisheries and aquaculture systems on which billions of people depend for food and millions rely for their livelihoods. This narrative review summarizes peer-reviewed and selected literature published between 2008 and 2026 on climate impacts, adaptation options, and critical knowledge gaps in marine and freshwater fisheries, with a particular focus on tropical and African inland fisheries. This review shows that warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and altered hydrology are disrupting fish physiology; shifting the distribution of marine species poleward by over 70 km per decade, at rates that vary greatly by taxon, depth, and area; and destroying critical habitats. Although this rapid poleward shift is well documented in open marine environments, it contrasts sharply with landlocked or fragmented freshwater systems, where horizontal migration is physically constrained, a contrast central to the concept of climate entrapment developed in this review. In scenarios characterized by high emissions, tropical fisheries may see a reduction of up to 40% in their maximum catch potential, a statistic relevant to specific tropical Exclusive Economic Zones based on bioclimate-envelope forecasts, which should not be interpreted as a global or universal result. This figure is a model-derived projection under a bioclimate-envelope framework rather than an observed trend, and the realized outcome will depend on future emission pathways. These biophysical changes compound already serious pressures, overfishing, habitat loss, and pollution, and the burden falls heaviest on those least responsible: small-scale fishers, women, and indigenous communities. We introduce the concept of climate entrapment to describe the distinct vulnerability of freshwater fisheries: trapped by fragmented habitats and hydrological barriers, fish stocks cannot migrate to more secure waters as conditions deteriorate. While there are promising adaptation strategies, major gaps remain in understanding what works, for whom, and under what conditions. We conclude with priority recommendations for research, policy, and practice.

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Coastal and marine ecosystems under climate change ecological and socio-environmental impacts

Coastal and marine systems are some of the most biologically productive and economically important systems on Earth, yet they are being compromised at an accelerating pace by climate change. Ocean warming, marine heatwaves, sea-level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation along with increasing extreme events are interacting to change the structure, function and resilience of ecosystems among coral reefs, mangroves seagrass meadows and salt marshes. Although effort has been devoted to understanding individual ecosystem effects of climatic change, we know less about comparative mechanistic synthesis and cross-ecosystem vulnerability trajectories. This synthesis explores recent understanding of the biophysical determinants of ecosystem decline, with particular reference to thresholds, regime shifts and feedbacks that limit capacity to adapt. We explore different sensitivities among these biogenic coastal systems, and explain why coral reefs are confronted with sharp thermal and carbonate chemistry thresholds, while mangroves and tidal wetlands have threshold-based resilience contingent on sediment supply and geomorphologic setting. Beyond ecological effects, we compile social–environmental responses including fishery reduction, coastal defense loss and blue carbon release, and rising human vulnerability especially in small island and developing coastal regions. The review also examines ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions, considering their co-benefits and implementation challenges in a high-emission world. By synthesizing climate drivers, ecosystem thresholds, and social–ecological tipping points within a unified conceptual framework, this review integrates mechanisms of change and alternative stable-state transitions to improve understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience under accelerating climate change.

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Uncovering hidden and cumulative impacts of construction life cycle processes on planetary boundaries through Forgotten Effects Theory

This study applies the Forgotten Effects Theory (FET), a fuzzy-logic-based modelling framework, to analyse how construction life cycle processes generate direct and indirect pressures on multiple planetary boundaries. The approach captures multistage and nonlinear causal relationships derived from expert-based incidence matrices. Results show that mineral extraction, material distribution, and waste disposal strongly influence ocean acidification; construction operations and building use affect biosphere integrity; material production drives land-use change; and demolition contributes to climate change. The analysis revealed substantial hidden effects: the influence of mineral extraction on ocean acidification increased from 0.4 to 0.9 when material production was included as a mediator; the relationship between building use and biosphere integrity increased from 0 to 0.8 through indirect pathways; and the influence of demolition on climate change increased from 0 to 0.8 through waste-disposal mediation. A ±10% sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the main incidence hierarchy, with changes below 0.05 for the most relevant coefficients. These findings demonstrate that indirect (“forgotten”) effects can be as influential as direct impacts, significantly intensifying pressures across planetary boundaries. The construction sector is therefore characterised as a cumulative and interconnected system in which impacts propagate and reinforce each other across life cycle stages. These results highlight the limitations of silo-based environmental assessments and underscore the need for integrated, life cycle-oriented sustainability strategies. Policies prioritising upstream interventions, material efficiency and reduced demolition can generate broader systemic benefits. The study demonstrates the potential of FET as a transparent and reproducible modelling approach for linking local construction decisions with global environmental processes, supporting more integrated circular economy strategies and contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals 11, 12 and 13.

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Chapter 22 – Environmental ethics and the case of ocean acidification

Ocean acidification (OA) is a paradigm case of an encroaching long-term environmental problem that is mainly caused by CO2-emissions and will have diverse and often uncertain impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. SDG 14 (‘Life below water’) demands to halt or slow down OA. Since occurrence of OA is remote to our daily terrestrial life, it has not been in the focus of moral attention so far. This chapter emerged from the BIOACID research programme at Kiel University. It examines five sources of normativity in environmental ethics, addresses problems of uncertainty and framing, and interprets the metaphor of ‘ocean health’ with recurrence to an updated version of Aldo Leopold’s principle. The chapter argues that basic non-anthropocentric approaches, such as biocentrism, ecocentrism, and holism, face severe problems with respect to marine environments and can’t serve as solid groundings for an ocean ethics. The chapter proposes that a deep anthropocentric environmental ethics can provide an appropriate grounding for ambitious marine stewardship policies, including ocean acidification. Finally, the chapter proposes to define a critical threshold for OA which should not be passed.

22.1 Introduction

This chapter addresses ocean acidification (OA) from an environmental ethics perspective. Ocean acidification is seen as a paradigm case for post-normal science. At its core, the chapter adopts and substantiates several ethical building blocks from a discourse-pragmatic approach, as (a) common heritage of humankind, (b) strong sustainability, (c) Aldo Leopold’s principle, and (d) ecosystem services, with a special eye on cultural services. The idea to attribute inherent moral value to marine organisms and ecological systems is seen critically.

This chapter emerged from the research programme BIOACID (Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification) being conducted at Kiel University. Within the final period of the BIOACID research programme, a work package on environmental ethics was included to address the underlying normative issues. This project resulted in a monograph: Frederike Böhm and Konrad Ott, Impacts of Ocean Acidification: An Analysis from an Environmental Ethics Perspective (Böhm & Ott, 2019).1 The following chapter presents the essential lines of reasoning of this book and adds new thoughts. It is organized as follows: Section 22.2 gives a brief overview of the scientific dimension. Section 22.3 presents a post-normal-science framing of OA. Section 22.4 deals with interrelated sources of normativity which stem from environmental ethics. Section 22.5 addresses the problem of defining a planetary boundary for OA.

…

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Chapter 21 – How can we curb ocean acidification in a time of multiple competing crises?

Since the 1972 Stockholm Conference, many global environmental agreements have been struck for climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development goals. Still, the planets environment has continued to decline, including on the ocean. One result has been ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of 30–40 per cent of all carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. On its face, this ocean CO2 uptake sounds positive. However, with a continuous increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, this also means an increase in the ocean, which alters its chemistry in ways that may disrupt oceanic biodiversity through making waters more acidic. When coupling this with other major global crisis, we see that we have only adopted global environmental agreements that protect humans from our own nature-induced change – and not ensured that we take our ethical obligation to nature itself by protecting it from human use. This chapter looks at the risk perception literature and considers how the science–policy interface can be exploited to convey the importance of ocean acidification, and whether the anthropogenic lens is what will always be necessary to ensure action to protect something from ourselves.

21.1 Introduction

Around the end of the eighteenth century, with the design of the steam engine by James Watt, the geological age of the Anthropocene started (Crutzen 2006). This has led to unprecedented changes in the natural environment, the most serious of which is climate change. We have tried to change our paths since then though. In fact, more than 50 years have now passed since the 1972 Stockholm Conference (Rockström et al. 2021) – the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. This was when global leaders for the first time made the environment and the triple planetary crisis of climate, nature, and pollution a focus issue. At that time, in 1972, they warned – and this still holds true today – that ‘Through ignorance or indifference we can do massive and irreversible harm to the earthly environment on which our life and well-being depend’ (United Nations 1973).

Since then, state leaders have created the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) entered into force both a climate and biodiversity agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)) with many iterations; signed the UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 with corresponding targets, as part of the realization of Agenda 2030; and in 2022 and 2023, state leaders also signed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) and the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ). Still, we have continued to saturate Earth’s capacity to support future generations (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2018). The planet is more polluted than earlier, there are fewer fish in the ocean, the temperature is increasing, methane levels are at their highest in 800,000 years, polar regions are melting, plastics are ubiquitous, and the ocean is more acidic than ever (Barnes & Kaiser 2009; Hönisch et al. 2012; Worm & Branch 2012; MacLeod et al. 2021; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2022).

In fact, six of nine planetary boundaries that are needed for humans to be able to develop and thrive for generations to come have been breached already (Richardson et al. 2023). Then, in 2025, the ocean acidification boundary was crossed (Findlay et al. 2025). This is a boundary that is also specifically mentioned in the SDGs, with target 3 of SDG14 Life below water specifying the need to ‘Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific cooperation at all levels’. It was in fact the only by-product of climate change and greenhouse gas emission that was singled out to be included under this goal (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs 2022). Still, there is a lack of concrete knowledge of how breaching this boundary will impact either non-human populations or the corresponding human population that depends on these (Buckley et al. 2017).

In light of this, the current chapter considers ocean acidification within the planetary boundaries framework and assesses the lack of responses that led to, and may further exacerbate, the breaching of this boundary. We argue that this in part can be explained by the human-centric perspective of global environmental governance, where effective governance is linked to risk perception within a human context. In terms of ocean acidification, we argue that humans still have a low personal risk perception, coupled with a lack of knowledge (or interest) about it, which directly hinders its agenda setting and implementation of effective governance. We conclude with considering whether the increased saliency of biodiversity challenges, as brought to the surface with the signing of the GBF in 2022, can bring more attention to the role of stressors such as ocean acidification on sustainability and the consequences the breach of this planetary boundary can have on not only humans but also non-human populations.

…

Continue reading ‘Chapter 21 – How can we curb ocean acidification in a time of multiple competing crises?’

Chapter 20 – Introduction to the ocean acidification boundary

The oceans mirror many of the environmental problems described in the planetary boundaries framework and reported widely in the media, such as overfishing and deep-sea mining (biosphere integrity), plastic islands or microplastics (novel entities), shipping (atmospheric aerosol loading), or dead zones lacking oxygen (biogeochemical flows). Less present in the media is the problem of ocean acidification addressed by the planetary boundary. Like the atmosphere, the oceans are sinks for CO2 produced by the burning of fossil fuels.

CO2 absorption changes the chemistry of the oceans, lowering their pH. The resulting acidification also leads to fewer of the calcium carbonate shells produced by numerous creatures sinking carbon to the ocean floor before they dissolve back into the water. The boundary’s control variable relates to this by describing the ‘carbonate ion concentration in surface seawater’ and, more specifically, the ‘average global surface ocean saturation state with respect to aragonite’ (Richardson et al. 2023). Aragonite is one of the most abundant forms of calcium carbonate. The boundary is at more than 80 per cent of the pre-industrial aragonite concentration, defined as 3.44. In 2023, the level was 81 per cent, meaning the ocean boundary was, at that time, still one of the few that had not been crossed. Thus, Pelejero et al. (2010: 332) describe ocean acidification as the ‘“evil twin” of global warming’ – it is a moot question, though, as to which is of the two is more evil. This also means that reducing greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the pressure on ocean acidification.

Acidification of the oceans and declining concentrations of calcium carbonate are becoming a problem for marine life. Many creatures depend on the presence of these calcium compounds in the water to build their shells or skeletons. Lower pH not only erodes the existing structures of these creatures, but they also find less calcium to rebuild them. These include plankton, corals, crustaceans, and molluscs, which are vital to marine biodiversity, marine food chains, and, ultimately, human food security (Rockström et al. 2009). So, the control variable of the ocean boundary is the global average saturation state of calcium carbonate in surface water. The framework sets the preindustrial Holocene base value at 3.44 and the boundary value at 2.75. Since 2009, the actual values have fluctuated between 2.8 and 2.9 (Richardson et al. 2023). In 2025, the ocean acidification boundary was first recognized as having been crossed (Findlay et al. 2025).

Both chapters on ocean acidification take the problem structure of the ocean acidification boundary as the starting point of their ethical reflections. Konrad Ott describes it as post-normal, that is, a situation when problem-solving has to cope with uncertain facts, disputed values, high-stakes, and urgent decisions (Funtowicz & Ravetz 1993). Ott explores the issue of ocean acidification from an environmental ethics perspective. He discusses different ways of justifying why ocean acidification is an ethical problem and what follows from this. In doing so, he aims to show how well the most common environmental ethical approaches can address the issue. They mostly differ in their scope of the moral community, that is, to whom we have direct moral obligations: to humans only, or also to individual animals, species, or ecosystems? Depending on the answer one gives, the reasons for protecting oceans will change. Ultimately, Ott intends to specify the normative building blocks of deep anthropocentrism as his preferred approach to the issue.

Rachel Haug Fossbakk, too, addresses the issue of decision-making relating to uncertainty and risk perception. She argues that the human response to ocean acidification is inadequate. This is despite the fact that there is already enough knowledge to act. Her hypothesis is that action requires an adequate perception of risk, which many people do not have when it comes to ocean acidification. She concludes by asking who has a responsibility to act, and on what ethical basis. Rachel Haug Fossbakk then advocates an ecocentric perspective by which she understands a situation ‘where humans are part of nature and need to live sustainably as part of it on the same term as other species’.

Continue reading ‘Chapter 20 – Introduction to the ocean acidification boundary’

ISO 18191:2026 – Water quality — Determination of pHT in seawater — Method using the purple indicator of m-cresol

This document specifies a spectrophotometric determination of the pHT of seawater on the total hydrogen ion concentration pH scale. The total hydrogen ion concentration, [H+]T, is expressed as moles per kilogram of seawater. The method is suitable for assaying oceanic levels of pHT from 7.4 to 8.2 for normal seawater of practical salinity ranging from 20 to 40.

Continue reading ‘ISO 18191:2026 – Water quality — Determination of pHT in seawater — Method using the purple indicator of m-cresol’

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