Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'

Phosphate limitation intensifies negative effects of ocean acidification on globally important nitrogen fixing cyanobacterium

Growth of the prominent nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium Trichodesmium is often limited by phosphorus availability in the ocean. How nitrogen fixation by phosphorus-limited Trichodesmium may respond to ocean acidification remains poorly understood. Here, we use phosphate-limited chemostat experiments to show that acidification enhanced phosphorus demands and decreased phosphorus-specific nitrogen fixation rates in Trichodesmium. The increased phosphorus requirements were attributed primarily to elevated cellular polyphosphate contents, likely for maintaining cytosolic pH homeostasis in response to acidification. Alongside the accumulation of polyphosphate, decreased NADP(H):NAD(H) ratios and impaired chlorophyll synthesis and energy production were observed under acidified conditions. Consequently, the negative effects of acidification were amplified compared to those demonstrated previously under phosphorus sufficiency. Estimating the potential implications of this finding, using outputs from the Community Earth System Model, predicts that acidification and dissolved inorganic and organic phosphorus stress could synergistically cause an appreciable decrease in global Trichodesmium nitrogen fixation by 2100.

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Towards modelling cold-water coral reef-scale crumbling: including morphological variability in mechanical surrogate models

The structural complexity of cold-water corals is threatened by ocean acidification. Increased porosity and weakening of structurally critical parts of the reef framework may lead to rapid physical collapse on an ecosystem scale, reducing their potential for biodiversity support. We can use computational models to describe the mechanisms leading to reef-crumbling. How-ever, the implementation of such models into an efficient predictive tool that allows us to determine risk and timescales of reef collapse is missing. Here, we identified possible surrogate models to represent the branching architecture of the cold-water coral species Lophelia pertusa. For length scales greater than 13 cm, a continuum finite element mechanical approach can be used to analyse mechanical competence whereas at smaller length scales, mechanical surrogate models need to explicitly account for the statistical differences in the structure. We showed large morphological variations between L. pertusa colonies and branches, as well as dead and live skeletal structures, which need to be considered for the development of rapid monitoring tools for predicting risk of cold-water coral reefs crumbling. This will allow us to investigate timescales of changes, including the impact of exposure times to acidified waters on reef-crumbling.

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Environmental change impacts on shell formation in the muricid Nucella lapillus

Environmental change is a significant threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Ocean acidification, global warming and long-term emissions of anthropogenic effluents are all negatively impacting aquatic life. Marine calcifying organisms, in particular, are expected to be severely affected by decreasing seawater pH, resulting in shell dissolution and retardations during the formation and repair of shells. Understanding the underlying biological and environmental factors driving species vulnerabilities to habitat alterations is thus crucial to our ability to faithfully predict impacts on marine ecosystems under an array of environmental change scenarios. So far, existing knowledge about organism responses mainly stems from short to medium term laboratory experiments of single species or over- simplified communities. Although these studies have provided important insights, results may not translate to organism responses in a complex natural system requiring a more holistic experimental approach. In this thesis, I investigated shell formation mechanisms and shape and elemental composition responses in the shell of the important intertidal predatory muricid Nucella lapillus both in situ and across heterogeneous environmental gradients. The aim was to identify potential coping mechanisms of N. lapillus to environmental change and provide a more coherent picture of shell formation responses along large ecological gradients in the spatial and temporal domain. To investigate shell formation mechanisms, I tested for the possibility of shell recycling as a function to reduce calcification costs during times of exceptional demand using a multi-treatment shell labelling experiment. Reports on calcification costs vary largely in the literature. Still, recent discoveries showed that costs might increase as a function of decreasing calcification substrate abundance, suggesting that shell formation becomes increasingly more costly under future environmental change scenarios. However, despite the anticipated costs, no evidence was found that would indicate the use of functional dissolution as a means to recycle shell material for a more cost-efficient shell formation in N. lapillus. To investigate shell formation responses, I combined morphometric and shell thickness analyses with novel statistical methods to identify natural shape and thickness response of N. lapillus to large scale variability in temperature, salinity, wind speed and the carbonate system across a wide geographic range (from Portugal to Iceland) and through time (over 130 years). I found that along geographical gradients, the state of the carbonate system and, more specifically, the substrate inhibitor ratio ([HCO3−][H+]−1) (SIR) was the main predictor for shape variations in N. lapillus. Populations in regions with a lower SIR tend to form narrower shells with a higher spire to body whorl ratio. In contrast, populations in regions with a higher SIR form wider shells with a much lower spire to body whorl ratio. The results suggest a widespread phenotypic response of N. lapillus to continuing ocean acidification could be expected, affecting its phenotypic response patterns to predator or wave exposure regimes with profound implications for North Atlantic rocky shore communities. On the contrary, investigations of shell shape and thickness changes over the last 130 years from adjacent sampling regions on the Southern North Sea coast revealed that contrary to global predictions, N. lapillus built continuously thicker shells while maintaining a consistent shell shape throughout the last century. Systematic modelling efforts suggested that the observed shell thickening resulted from higher annual temperatures, longer yearly calcification windows, nearshore eutrophication, and enhanced prey abundance, which mitigated the impact of other climate change factors. An investigation into the trace elemental composition of common pollutant metals in the same archival N. lapillus specimens revealed that shell Cu/Ca and Zn/Ca concentration ratios remained remarkably constant throughout the last 130 years despite substantial shifts in the environmental concentration. However, Pb/Ca concentration ratios showed a definite trend closely aligned with leaded petrol emissions in Europe over the same period. Discussing physiological and environmental drivers for the observed shell bound heavy metal patterns, I argue that, unlike for Pb, constraints on environmental dissolved Cu species abundance and biologically mediated control on internal Zn levels were likely responsible for a decoupling of shell-bound to total ambient Cu and Zn concentrations. The results highlight the complexity of internal and external pathways that govern the uptake of heavy metals into the molluscan shell and suggest that the shell of N. lapillus could be a suitable archive for a targeted investigation of Pb pollution in the intertidal zone.

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Co-occurring anthropogenic stressors reduce the timeframe of environmental viability for the world’s coral reefs

Anthropogenic disturbances are posing unprecedented challenges to the persistence of ecosystems worldwide. The speed at which these disturbances reach an ecosystem’s tolerance thresholds will determine the time available for adaptation and conservation. Here, we aim to calculate the year after which a given environmental stressor permanently exceeds the bounds of an ecosystem’s tolerance. Ecosystem thresholds are here defined as limits in a given stressor beyond which ecosystems have showed considerable changes in community assembly and functioning, becoming remnants of what they once were, but not necessarily leading to species extirpation or extinction. Using the world’s coral reefs as a case example, we show that the projected effects of marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, storms, land-based pollution, and local human stressors are being underestimated considerably by looking at disturbances independently. Given the spatial complementarity in which numerous disturbances impact the world’s coral reefs, we show that the timelines of environmental suitability are halved when all disturbances are analyzed simultaneously, as opposed to independently. Under business-as-usual scenarios, the median year after which environmental conditions become unsuitable for the world’s remaining coral reefs was, at worse, 2050 for any one disturbance alone (28 years left); but when analyzed concurrently, this date was shortened to 2035 (13 years left). When analyzed together, disturbances reduced the date of environmental suitability because areas that may remain suitable under one disturbance could become unsuitable by any of several other variables. The significance of co-occurring disturbances at reducing timeframes of environmental suitability was evident even under optimistic scenarios. The best-case scenario, characterized by strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and optimistic human development, resulted in 41% of global coral reefs with unsuitable conditions by 2100 under any one disturbance independently; yet when analyzed in combination up to 64% of the world’s coral reefs could face unsuitable environmental conditions by one disturbance or another. Under the worst-case scenario, nearly all coral reef ecosystems worldwide (approximately 99%) will permanently face unsuitable conditions by 2055 in at least one of the disturbances analyzed. Prior studies have indicated the projected dire effects of climate change on coral reefs by mid-century; by analyzing a multitude of projected disturbances, our study reveals a much more severe prognosis for the world’s coral reefs as they have significantly less time to adapt while highlighting the urgent need to tackle available solutions to human disturbances.

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Tipping points of marine phytoplankton to multiple environmental stressors

Globally, anthropogenic climate change is threatening marine species. However, whether and how global marine phytoplankton, which represent the base of marine food webs, will exceed their tipping points under multiple climate factors remain unclear. Here, by establishing machine learning models, we identified the tipping points of global marine phytoplankton production and resistance under eight environmental stressors. Phytoplankton production and resistance are affected by multiple factors and the temperature and partial pressure of carbon dioxide dominate the risks for reaching their tipping points. If the current emission scenario continues, 50% (40–61% at 90% confidence) and 41% (2–80% at 90% confidence) of tropical areas would reach the tipping points of ongoing phytoplankton production and resistance decline, respectively, in 2100. Compared with single- or few-factor studies, machine learning (for example, ensemble machine learning) provides a powerful and realistic solution for policy-makers facing large-scale ecological responses to global climate changes under multiple environmental stressors.

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Interactive effects of CO2, temperature, irradiance, and nutrient limitation on the growth and physiology of the marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus (Cyanophyceae)

The marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus was grown in a continuous culture system to study the interactive effects of temperature, irradiance, nutrient limitation, and the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) on its growth and physiological characteristics. Cells were grown on a 14:10 h light:dark cycle at all combinations of low and high irradiance (50 and 300 μmol photons ⋅ m−2 ⋅ s−1, respectively), low and high pCO2 (400 and 1000 ppmv, respectively), nutrient limitation (nitrate-limited and nutrient-replete conditions), and temperatures of 20–45°C in 5°C increments. The maximum growth rate was ~4.5 · d−1 at 30–35°C. Under nutrient-replete conditions, growth rates at most temperatures and irradiances were about 8% slower at a pCO2 of 1000 ppmv versus 400 ppmv. The single exception was 45°C and high irradiance. Under those conditions, growth rates were ~45% higher at 1000 ppmv. Cellular carbon:nitrogen ratios were independent of temperature at a fixed relative growth rate but higher at high irradiance than at low irradiance. Initial slopes of photosynthesis–irradiance curves were higher at all temperatures under nutrient-replete versus nitrate-limited conditions; they were similar at all temperatures under high and low irradiance, except at 20°C, when they were suppressed at high irradiance. A model of phytoplankton growth in which cellular carbon was allocated to structure, storage, or the light or dark reactions of photosynthesis accounted for the general patterns of cell composition and growth rate. Allocation of carbon to the light reactions of photosynthesis was consistently higher at low versus high light and under nutrient-replete versus nitrate-limited conditions.

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Pelagic calcifiers face increased mortality and habitat loss with warming and ocean acidification

Global change is impacting the oceans in an unprecedented way, and multiple lines of evidence suggest that species distributions are changing in space and time. There is increasing evidence that multiple environmental stressors act together to constrain species habitat more than expected from warming alone. Here, we conducted a comprehensive study of how temperature and aragonite saturation state act together to limit Limacina helicina, globally distributed pteropods that are ecologically important pelagic calcifiers and an indicator species for ocean change. We co-validated three different approaches to evaluate the impact of ocean warming and acidification (OWA) on the survival and distribution of this species in the California Current Ecosystem. First, we used colocated physical, chemical, and biological data from three large-scale west coast cruises and regional time series; second, we conducted multifactorial experimental incubations to evaluate how OWA impacts pteropod survival; and third, we validated the relationships we found against global distributions of pteropods and carbonate chemistry. OWA experimental work revealed mortality increases under OWA, while regional habitat suitability indices and global distributions of L. helicina suggest that a multi-stressor framework is essential for understanding pteropod distributions. In California Current Ecosystem habitats, where pteropods are living close to their thermal maximum already, additional warming and acidification through unabated fossil fuel emissions (RCP 8.5) are expected to dramatically reduce habitat suitability.

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Impacts of ocean warming and acidification on the energy budget of three commercially important fish species

Using experimental data of three commercially important marine fish species (Diplodus sargus, Diplodus cervinus and Solea senegalensis), a model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory was parametrized. The model was used to produce projections of growth and reproduction for these species, under different scenarios of ocean warming and acidification.

A mechanistic model based on Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was developed to predict the combined effects of ocean warming, acidification and decreased food availability on growth and reproduction of three commercially important marine fish species: white seabream (Diplodus sargus), zebra seabream (Diplodus cervinus) and Senegalese sole (Solea senegalensis). Model simulations used a parameter set for each species, estimated by the Add-my-Pet method using data from laboratory experiments complemented with bibliographic sources. An acidification stress factor was added as a modifier of the somatic maintenance costs and estimated for each species to quantify the effect of a decrease in pH from 8.0 to 7.4 (white seabream) or 7.7 (zebra seabream and Senegalese sole). The model was used to project total length of individuals along their usual lifespan and number of eggs produced by an adult individual within one year, under different climate change scenarios for the end of the 21st century. For the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SSP5-8.5, ocean warming led to higher growth rates during the first years of development, as well as an increase of 32-34% in egg production, for the three species. Ocean acidification contributed to reduced growth for white seabream and Senegalese sole and a small increase for zebra seabream, as well as a decrease in egg production of 48-52% and 14-33% for white seabream and Senegalese sole, respectively, and an increase of 4-5% for zebra seabream. The combined effect of ocean warming and acidification is strongly dependent on the decrease of food availability, which leads to significant reduction in growth and egg production. This is the first study to assess the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification using DEB models on fish, therefore, further research is needed for a better understanding of these climate change-related effects among different taxonomic groups and species.

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Climate change will fragment Florida stone crab communities

Many marine species have been shown to be threatened by both ocean acidification and ocean warming which are reducing survival, altering behavior, and posing limits on physiology, especially during earlier life stages. The commercially important Florida stone crab, Menippe mercenaria, is one species that is affected by reduced seawater pH and elevated seawater temperatures. In this study, we determined the impacts of reduced pH and elevated temperature on the distribution of the stone crab larvae along the West Florida Shelf. To understand the dispersion of the larvae, we coupled the multi-scale ocean model SLIM with a larval dispersal model. We then conducted a connectivity study and evaluated the impacts of climate stressors by looking at four different scenarios which included models that represented the dispersion of stone crab larvae under: 1) present day conditions as modelled by SLIM for the temperature and NEMO-PISCES for the pH, 2) SSP1-2.6 scenario (-0.037 reduction in pH and +0.5°C compared to present-day conditions), 3) SSP2-4.5 scenario(-0.15 reduction in pH and +1.5°C) and 4) SSP5-8.5 scenario (-0.375 reduction in pH and +3.5°C). Our results show a clear impact of these climate change stressors on larval dispersal and on the subsequent stone crab distribution. Our results indicate that future climate change could result in stone crabs moving north or into deeper waters. We also observed an increase in the number of larvae settling in deeper waters (defined as the non-fishing zone in this study with depths exceeding 30 m) that are not typically part of the commercial fishing zone. The distance travelled by larvae, however, is likely to decrease, resulting in an increase of self-recruitment and decrease of the size of the sub-populations. A shift of the spawning period, to earlier in the spring, is also likely to occur. Our results suggest that habitats in the non-fishing zone cannot serve as a significant source of larvae for the habitats in the fishing zone (defined as water depth< 30 m) since there is very little exchange (< 5% of all exchanges) between the two zones. These results indicate that the stone crab populations in Florida may be susceptible to community fragmentation and that the management of the fishery should consider the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios.

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Role of coral symbiont in coral resilience under future ocean conditions

Anthropogenic climate change is leading to severe consequences for coral reefs because it disrupts the mutualistic partnership between the coral host and their dinoflagellate endosymbionts (Family: Symbiodiniaceae). Ocean acidification (OA) and ocean warming lead to reduced coral growth, causes coral bleaching, and increases coral mortality. One mechanism of long-term acclimatization to thermal stress by corals is to acquire more thermally tolerant symbiont lineages or increase the proportion of thermally tolerant lineages in the symbiont community. Using a combination of field and long-term mesocosm experiments this research investigated the main drivers of Symbiodiniaceae community composition in some of the main corals in Hawai‘i. The first chapter elucidates the baseline symbiont community composition of 600 colonies of Montipora capitata sampled from 30 reefs across the range of environmental conditions that occur in Kāne‘ohe Bay. Symbiodiniaceae community differed markedly across sites, with M. capitata in the most open-ocean (northern) site hosting few or none of the genus Durusdinium, whereas individuals at other sites had a mix of Durusdinium and Cladocopium. The second chapter then investigates how the symbiont composition of those same individually marked colonies responded to the 2019 bleaching event. The relative proportion of the heat-tolerant symbiont Durusdinium increased in most parts of the bay, but despite this significant increase in abundance, the overall algal symbiont community composition was largely unchanged. Rather than bleaching stress, symbiont community composition was driven by environmentally designated regions across the bay, and remained differentiated and similar to pre-bleaching composition. Among measured variables, depth and variability in temperature were the most significant drivers of Symbiodiniaceae community composition among sites, regardless of bleaching intensity or change in relative proportion of Durusdinium. The final chapter investigates the role of specificity in the symbiont community composition for eight of the main Hawaiian corals sampled from six different locations around O‘ahu. Corals were then maintained for ~2.5 years under temperature and acidification conditions predicted by the end of the century in a mesocosm experiment to determine the response of their symbiont communities to climate change and test for environmental memory. Symbiodiniaceae communities were highly specific in each of the eight coral species-, and site-specific differences in community composition were lost by the end of the experiment in the common garden ambient treatment. Future ocean conditions lead to an increase in stress resilient symbionts (e.g., Durusdinium) in some species, whereas others became more vulnerable to the infection of opportunistic symbionts (e.g., Symbiodinium or Breviolum). Temperature was found to be the main driver of change, whereas there was no significant effect of acidification on symbiont community composition. Provenance of corals mattered, because corals from some locations responded differently than conspecifics from other locations confirming an environmental memory effect. Together these results highlight the complexity in predicting coral response to future ocean conditions. Algal symbiont community composition of corals changes in response to their environment, and that this response is dependent on both the coral species and their site of origin, highlighting the role of symbiont specificity and environmental memory in shaping coral resilience.

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Coupled carbonate chemistry – harmful algae bloom models for studying effects of ocean acidification on Prorocentrum minimum blooms in a eutrophic estuary

Eutrophic estuaries have suffered from a proliferation of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and acceleration of ocean acidification (OA) over the past few decades. Despite laboratory experiments indicating pH effects on algal growth, little is understood about how acidification affects HABs in estuaries that typically feature strong horizontal and vertical gradients in pH and other carbonate chemistry parameters. Here, coupled hydrodynamic–carbonate chemistry–HAB models were developed to gain a better understanding of OA effects on a high biomass HAB in a eutrophic estuary and to project how the global anthropogenic CO2 increase might affect these HABs in the future climate. Prorocentrum minimum in Chesapeake bay, USA, one of the most common HAB species in estuarine waters, was used as an example for studying the OA effects on HABs. Laboratory data on P. minimum grown under different pH conditions were applied in the development of an empirical formula relating growth rate to pH. Hindcast simulation using the coupled hydrodynamic-carbonate chemistry–HAB models showed that the P. minimum blooms were enhanced in the upper bay where pH was low. On the other hand, pH effects on P. minimum growth in the mid and lower bay with higher pH were minimal, but model simulations show surface seaward estuarine flow exported the higher biomass in the upper bay downstream. Future model projections with higher atmospheric pCO2 show that the bay-wide averaged P. minimum concentration during the bloom periods increases by 2.9% in 2050 and 6.2% in 2100 as pH decreases and 0.2 or 0.4, respectively. Overall the model results suggest OA will cause a moderate amplification of P. minimum blooms in Chesapeake bay. The coupled modeling framework developed here can be applied to study the effects of OA on other HAB species in estuarine and coastal environments.

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The Foraminiferal response to climate stressors project: tracking the community response of planktonic Foraminifera to historical climate change

Planktonic Foraminifera are ubiquitous marine protozoa inhabiting the upper ocean. During life, they secrete calcareous shells, which accumulate in marine sediments, providing a geological record of past spatial and temporal changes in their community structure. As a result, they provide the opportunity to analyze both current and historical patterns of species distribution and community turnover in this plankton group on a global scale. The FORCIS project aims to unlock this potential by synthesizing a comprehensive global database of abundance and diversity observations of living planktonic Foraminifera in the upper ocean over more than 100 years starting from 1910. The database will allow for unravelling the impact of multiple global-change stressors acting on planktonic Foraminifera in historical times, using an approach that combines statistical analysis of temporal diversity changes in response to environmental changes with numerical modeling of species response based on their ecological traits.

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Ocean acidification effects on aquaculture of a high resilient calcifier species: a bioeconomic approach

Highlights

  • Farming of high resilience calcifier species was assessed under Ocean Acidification conditions.
  • A bioeconomic model with biologic, environmental, product-appearance and market attributes was used.
  • Biologic performance and shell integrity features were assumed as pH-dependant functions.
  • A negative market price adjustment due to shell spoils because low pH conditions was included.
  • The reduction in the sale price due to damaged shell had the highest negative effect on the culture performance.

Abstract

Although Ocean Acidification OA has been identified as a potential threat to calcifying species, recent research has described a wide variety of possible responses (from vulnerability to high resilience) of these species to OA,. Hence, possible OA effects may be more complex, species-specific, and life-stage related than previously thought. Therefore, research of OA effects on aquaculture should address these complexities even when farming high resilience species. This work used bioeconomic modeling to assess the possible effects of OA on bivalve aquaculture incorporating biological, appearance, and market complexities into the culture analysis. A single batch of cultured mussels was modeled from stocking to harvest. The applied bioeconomic model assumed biological (i.e. growth and mortality rates) and shell integrity features (i.e. physical appearance) as pH functions. Bioeconomic parameters were calibrated based on literature regarding the farming of Mytilus galloprovincialis. The model included a negative market price adjustment due to shell spoils developed because of low pH conditions. The bioeconomic performance effects of the pH-driven features on the farming were assessed in a one by one (i.e. individual changes occurring alone) and jointly based analyses (i.e. all the pH-driven changes occurring together). Two IPCC scenarios were used to forecast future diminishing pH trajectories. Results showed that the reduction in the sale price due to damaged shell surface had the highest negative effect on the culture quasi-profits (35% and 70%). When the assumed pH-driven changes were assessed occurring together the quasi-profits diminished up to 49% and 84% in the analyzed OA scenarios. Nevertheless, in all the assessed scenarios positive quasi-profits were achieved. Finally, some proactive measures to diminish the possible effects of OA on bivalves farming are discussed.

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Assessing the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii

Seagrass beds serve as important carbon sinks, and it is thought that increasing the quantity and quality of such sinks could help to slow the rate of global climate change. Therefore, it will be important to (1) gain a better understanding of seagrass bed metabolism and (2) document how these high-productivity ecosystems are impacted by climate change-associated factors, such as ocean acidification (OA) and ocean warming (OW). A mesocosm-based approach was taken herein in which a tropical, Western Pacific seagrass species Thalassia hemprichii was cultured under either control or OA-simulating conditions; the temperature was gradually increased from 25 to 31 °C for both CO2 enrichment treatments, and it was hypothesized that this species would respond positively to OA and elevated temperature. After 12 weeks of exposure, OA (~1200 ppm) led to (1) increases in underground biomass and root C:N ratios and (2) decreases in root nitrogen content. Rising temperatures (25 to 31 °C) increased the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv:Fm), productivity, leaf growth rate, decomposition rate, and carbon sequestration, but decreased the rate of shoot density increase and the carbon content of the leaves; this indicates that warming alone does not increase the short-term carbon sink capacity of this seagrass species. Under high CO2 and the highest temperature employed (31 °C), this seagrass demonstrated its highest productivity, Fv:Fm, leaf growth rate, and carbon sequestration. Collectively, then, it appears that high CO2 levels offset the negative effects of high temperature on this seagrass species. Whether this pattern is maintained at temperatures that actually induce marked seagrass stress (likely beginning at 33–34 °C in Southern Taiwan) should be the focus of future research.

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Cessation of hardground accretion by the cold-water coralline algae Clathromorphum compactum and Clathromorphum nereostratum predicted within two centuries

Ocean acidification and warming are expected to disproportionately affect high-latitude calcifying species, such as crustose coralline algae. Clathromorphum nereostratum and Clathromorphum compactum are the primary builders of carbonate-hardgrounds in the Aleutians Islands of Alaska and North Atlantic shelf, respectively, providing habitat and settlement substrates for a large number of species. We exposed wild-collected specimens to 12 pCO2/T treatments (344–3322 μatm; 6.38–12.40°C) for 4 months in a factorially crossed, replicated laboratory experiment. Impacts of pCO2/T on algal calcification were quantified from linear extension and buoyant weight. Here we show that, despite belonging to the same genus, Cnereostratum exhibited greater sensitivity to thermal stress, while Ccompactum exhibited greater sensitivity to pH stress. Furthermore, multivariate models of algal calcification derived from the experiment indicate that both Cnereostratum and Ccompactum will commence net dissolution as early as 2120 and 2200 AD, respectively. Our results therefore indicate that near-term climate change may lead to substantial degradation of these species and loss of the critical hardground habitats that they form.

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Individual-based modeling of shelled pteropods

Highlights

  • First shelled pteropod individual-based model (IBM) based on Limacinidae species.
  • Shelled pteropod IBM reproduces the abundance signal measured at temperate latitudes.
  • The pteropod IBM provides the life-stage composition, and life-stage progression of populations.
  • IBM might be used for quantifying ongoing and future effects of climate change.

Abstract

Shelled pteropods are cosmopolitan, free-swimming organisms of biogeochemical and commercial importance. They are widely used as sentinel species for the overall response of marine ecosystems to environmental stressors associated with climate change and changes in ocean chemistry. However, currently we are unable to project the effects of climate change on shelled pteropods at the population level, due to the missing spatio-temporal characterization of the response of pteropods to environmental stressors, and the limited information on the pteropod life history and life-cycle. In this study, we implement a shelled pteropod Individual-Based Model (IBM), i.e. we simulate a pteropod population as a set of discrete individuals over several generations, life-stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults) and as a function of temperature, food availability, and aragonite saturation state. The model is able to provide an abundance signal that is consistent with the abundance signal measured in the temperate region. In addition, the modeled life-stage progression matches the reported size spectrum across the year, with two major spawning periods in spring and fall, and maturation in March and September. Furthermore, our IBM correctly predicts the abundance maxima of younger, smaller and potentially more susceptible life-stages in spring and winter. Thus, our model provides a tool for advancing our understanding of the response of pteropod populations to future environmental changes.

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A competitive advantage of middle-sized diatoms from increasing seawater CO2

Diatoms, one of the most important phytoplankton groups, fulfill their carbon demand from seawater mainly by obtaining passively diffused carbon dioxide (CO2) and/or actively consuming intracellular energy to acquire bicarbonate (HCO3). An anthropogenically induced increase in seawater CO2 reduces the HCO3 requirement of diatoms, potentially saving intracellular energy and benefitting their growth. This effect is commonly speculated to be most remarkable in larger diatoms that are subject to a stronger limitation of CO2 supply because of their smaller surface-to-volume ratios. However, we constructed a theoretical model for diatoms and revealed a unimodal relationship between the simulated growth rate response (GRR, the ratio of growth rates under elevated and ambient CO2) and cell size, with the GRR peaking at a cell diameter of ∼7 μm. The simulated GRR of the smallest diatoms was low because the CO2 supply was nearly sufficient at the ambient level, while the decline of GRR from a cell diameter of 7 μm was simulated because the contribution of seawater CO2 to the total carbon demand greatly decreased and diatoms became less sensitive to CO2 increase. A collection of historical data in CO2 enrichment experiments of diatoms also showed a roughly unimodal relationship between maximal GRR and cell size. Our model further revealed that the “optimal” cell size corresponding to peak GRR enlarged with the magnitude of CO2 increase but diminished with elevating cellular carbon demand, leading to projection of the smallest optimal cell size in the equatorial Pacific upwelling zone. Last, we need to emphasize that the size-dependent effects of increasing CO2 on diatoms are multifaceted, while our model only considers the inorganic carbon supply from seawater and optimal allocation of intracellular energy. Our study proposes a competitive advantage of middle-sized diatoms and can be useful in projecting changes in the diatom community in the future acidified high-CO2 ocean.

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Multiscale mechanical consequences of ocean acidification for cold-water corals

Ocean acidification is a threat to deep-sea corals and could lead to dramatic and rapid loss of the reef framework habitat they build. Weakening of structurally critical parts of the coral reef framework can lead to physical habitat collapse on an ecosystem scale, reducing the potential for biodiversity support. The mechanism underpinning crumbling and collapse of corals can be described via a combination of laboratory-scale experiments and mathematical and computational models. We synthesise data from electron back-scatter diffraction, micro-computed tomography, and micromechanical experiments, supplemented by molecular dynamics and continuum micromechanics simulations to predict failure of coral structures under increasing porosity and dissolution. Results reveal remarkable mechanical properties of the building material of cold-water coral skeletons of 462 MPa compressive strength and 45–67 GPa stiffness. This is 10 times stronger than concrete, twice as strong as ultrahigh performance fibre reinforced concrete, or nacre. Contrary to what would be expected, CWCs retain the strength of their skeletal building material despite a loss of its stiffness even when synthesised under future oceanic conditions. As this is on the material length-scale, it is independent of increasing porosity from exposure to corrosive water or bioerosion. Our models then illustrate how small increases in porosity lead to significantly increased risk of crumbling coral habitat. This new understanding, combined with projections of how seawater chemistry will change over the coming decades, will help support future conservation and management efforts of these vulnerable marine ecosystems by identifying which ecosystems are at risk and when they will be at risk, allowing assessment of the impact upon associated biodiversity.

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Influence of climate on seawater quality and green mussel production

This study aimed to investigate the relationships between atmospheric parameters, seawater quality and green mussel production which were cultured in pond, estuary and coastal areas. Seawater and mussel samples were collected from mussel farms in the inner Gulf of Thailand from January to December 2019. Climate data were obtained from the Thai Meteorological Department. The correlations between selected atmospheric and seawater parameters were developed using linear and non-linear models. The influence of seawater quality on mussel production was evaluated using principal component analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression. The effects of atmospheric variation on green mussel productivity were simulated. The results showed that high air temperature and rainfall caused an increase in seawater temperature and a decrease in salinity, respectively. It was observed that the most influential factors affecting mussel production were nutrients and dissolved oxygen in ponds, temperature and salinity in estuaries, and nutrients and pH in coastal areas. The simulation indicated that mussel production can deteriorate when air temperature reaches 34°C and rainfall is higher than 200 mm per month. Our results suggest that under climate change events, locations with less riverine influence can provide higher mussel productivity. These results can be used as a guideline for farmers during a climate change event.

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Ocean futures for the world’s largest yellowfin tuna population under the combined effects of ocean warming and acidification

The impacts of climate change are expected to have profound effects on the fisheries of the Pacific Ocean, including its tuna fisheries, the largest globally. This study examined the combined effects of climate change on the yellowfin tuna population using the ecosystem model SEAPODYM. Yellowfin tuna fisheries in the Pacific contribute significantly to the economies and food security of Pacific Island Countries and Territories and Oceania. We use an ensemble of earth climate models to project yellowfin populations under a high greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC RCP8.5) scenario, which includes, the combined effects of a warming ocean, increasing acidification and changing ocean chemistry. Our results suggest that the acidification impact will be smaller in comparison to the ocean warming impact, even in the most extreme ensemble member scenario explored, but will have additional influences on yellowfin tuna population dynamics. An eastward shift in the distribution of yellowfin tuna was observed in the projections in the model ensemble in the absence of explicitly accounting for changes in acidification. The extent of this shift did not substantially differ when the three-acidification induced larval mortality scenarios were included in the ensemble; however, acidification was projected to weaken the magnitude of the increase in abundance in the eastern Pacific. Together with intensive fishing, these potential changes are likely to challenge the global fishing industry as well as the economies and food systems of many small Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The modelling framework applied in this study provides a tool for evaluating such effects and informing policy development.

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