Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'

Reduced nitrogenase efficiency dominates response of the globally important nitrogen fixer Trichodesmium to ocean acidification

The response of the prominent marine dinitrogen (N2)-fixing cyanobacteria Trichodesmium to ocean acidification (OA) is critical to understanding future oceanic biogeochemical cycles. Recent studies have reported conflicting findings on the effect of OA on growth and N2fixation of Trichodesmium. Here, we quantitatively analyzed experimental data on how Trichodesmium reallocated intracellular iron and energy among key cellular processes in response to OA, and integrated the findings to construct an optimality-based cellular model. The model results indicate that Trichodesmium growth rate decreases under OA primarily due to reduced nitrogenase efficiency. The downregulation of the carbon dioxide (CO2)-concentrating mechanism under OA has little impact on Trichodesmium, and the energy demand of anti-stress responses to OA has a moderate negative effect. We predict that if anthropogenic CO2 emissions continue to rise, OA could reduce global N2 fixation potential of Trichodesmium by 27% in this century, with the largest decrease in iron-limiting regions.

Continue reading ‘Reduced nitrogenase efficiency dominates response of the globally important nitrogen fixer Trichodesmium to ocean acidification’

Studentized bootstrap model-averaged tail area intervals

In many scientific studies, the underlying data-generating process is unknown and multiple statistical models are considered to describe it. For example, in a factorial experiment we might consider models involving just main effects, as well as those that include interactions. Model-averaging is a commonly-used statistical technique to allow for model uncertainty in parameter estimation. In the frequentist setting, the model-averaged estimate of a parameter is a weighted mean of the estimates from the individual models, with the weights typically being based on an information criterion, cross-validation, or bootstrapping. One approach to building a model-averaged confidence interval is to use a Wald interval, based on the model-averaged estimate and its standard error. This has been the default method in many application areas, particularly those in the life sciences. The MA-Wald interval, however, assumes that the studentized model-averaged estimate has a normal distribution, which can be far from true in practice due to the random, data-driven model weights. Recently, the model-averaged tail area Wald interval (MATA-Wald) has been proposed as an alternative to the MA-Wald interval, which only assumes that the studentized estimate from each model has a N(0, 1) or t-distribution, when that model is true. This alternative to the MA-Wald interval has been shown to have better coverage in simulation studies. However, when we have a response variable that is skewed, even these relaxed assumptions may not be valid, and use of these intervals might therefore result in poor coverage. We propose a new interval (MATA-SBoot) which uses a parametric bootstrap approach to estimate the distribution of the studentized estimate for each model, when that model is true. This method only requires that the studentized estimate from each model is approximately pivotal, an assumption that will often be true in practice, even for skewed data. We illustrate use of this new interval in the analysis of a three-factor marine global change experiment in which the response variable is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. We also perform a simulation study, based on the example, to compare the lower and upper error rates of this interval with those for existing methods. The results suggest that the MATA-SBoot interval can provide better error rates than existing intervals when we have skewed data, particularly for the upper error rate when the sample size is small.

Continue reading ‘Studentized bootstrap model-averaged tail area intervals’

Linking social preferences and ocean acidification impacts in mussel aquaculture

Ocean Acidification (OA) has become one of the most studied global stressors in marine science during the last fifteen years. Despite the variety of studies on the biological effects of OA with marine commercial species, estimations of these impacts over consumers’ preferences have not been studied in detail, compromising our ability to undertake an assessment of market and economic impacts resulting from OA at local scales. Here, we use a novel and interdisciplinary approach to fill this gap. We experimentally test the impact of OA on commercially relevant physical and nutritional attributes of mussels, and then we use economic discrete choice models to assess the marginal effects of these impacts over consumers’ preferences and wellbeing. Results showed that attributes, which were significantly affected by OA, are also those preferred by consumers. Consumers are willing to pay on average 52% less for mussels with evidences of OA and are willing to increase the price they pay to avoid negative changes in attributes due to OA. The interdisciplinary approach developed here, complements research conducted on OA by effectively informing how OA economic impacts can be analyzed under the lens of marginal changes in market price and consumer’ welfare. Thereby, linking global phenomena to consumers’ wellbeing, and shifting the focus of OA impacts to assess the effects of local vulnerabilities in a wider context of people and businesses.

Continue reading ‘Linking social preferences and ocean acidification impacts in mussel aquaculture’

Particulate inorganic to organic carbon production as a predictor for coccolithophorid sensitivity to ongoing ocean acidification

Ocean acidification (OA) can induce shifts in plankton community composition, with coccolithophores being mostly negatively impacted. This is likely to change particulate inorganic and organic carbon (PIC and POC, respectively) production, with impacts on the biological carbon pump. Hence, assessing and, most importantly, understanding species‐specific sensitivities of coccolithophores is paramount. In a multispecies comparison, spanning more than two orders of magnitude in terms of POC and PIC production rates, among Calcidiscus leptoporus, Coccolithus pelagicus subsp. braarudii, Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, and Scyphosphaera apsteinii, we found that cellular PIC : POC was a good predictor for a species’ OA sensitivity. This is likely related to the need for cellular pH homeostasis, which is challenged by the process of calcification producing protons internally, especially when seawater pH decreases in an OA scenario. With higher PIC : POC, species and strains being more sensitive to OA coccolithophores may shift toward less calcified varieties in the future.

Continue reading ‘Particulate inorganic to organic carbon production as a predictor for coccolithophorid sensitivity to ongoing ocean acidification’

Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification

• Ocean warming and acidification (OAW) will drastically decrease cod fishing opportunities in the Baltic.

• Ecological-economic modeling shows high losses in catch, and profits due to OAW.

• There is a high risk of cod stock collapse under mid-term climate change.

• Improved management could temporarily counteract OAW stressors.

• Adaptation includes a reduction in fishing mortality, and increased mesh size.

Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Continue reading ‘Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification’

Saxitoxin and tetrodotoxin bioavailability increases in future oceans

Increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are largely absorbed by the world’s oceans, decreasing surface water pH. In combination with increasing ocean temperatures, these changes have been identified as a major sustainability threat to future marine life. Interactions between marine organisms are known to depend on biomolecules, but the influence of oceanic pH on their bioavailability and functionality remains unexplored. Here we show that global change significantly impacts two ecological keystone molecules in the ocean, the paralytic toxins saxitoxin (STX) and tetrodotoxin (TTX). Increasing temperatures and declining pH increase the abundance of the toxic forms of these two neurotoxins in the water. Our geospatial global model highlights where this increased toxicity could intensify the devastating impact of harmful algal blooms on ecosystems in the future, for example through an increased incidence of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). We also use these results to calculate future saxitoxin toxicity levels in Alaskan clams, Saxidomus gigantea, showing critical exceedance of limits save for consumption. Our findings for TTX and STX exemplarily highlight potential consequences of changing pH and temperature on chemicals dissolved in the sea. This reveals major implications not only for ecotoxicology, but also for chemical signals mediating species interactions such as foraging, reproduction, or predation in the ocean with unexplored consequences for ecosystem stability and ecosystem services.

Continue reading ‘Saxitoxin and tetrodotoxin bioavailability increases in future oceans’

Seawater temperature and buffering capacity modulate coral calcifying pH

Scleractinian corals promote the precipitation of their carbonate skeleton by elevating the pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentration of their calcifying fluid above that of seawater. The fact corals actively regulate their calcifying fluid chemistry implies the potential for acclimation to ocean acidification. However, the extent to which corals can adjust their regulation mechanism in the face of decreasing ocean pH has not been rigorously tested. Here I present a numerical model simulating pH and DIC up-regulation by corals, and use it to determine the relative importance of physiological regulation versus seawater conditions in controlling coral calcifying fluid chemistry. I show that external seawater temperature and buffering capacity exert the first-order control on the extent of pH elevation in the calcifying fluid and explain most of the observed inter- and intra-species variability. Conversely, physiological regulation, represented by the interplay between enzymatic proton pumping, carbon influx and the exchange of calcifying fluid with external seawater, contributes to some variability but remain relatively constant as seawater conditions change. The model quantitatively reproduces variations of calcifying fluid pH in natural Porites colonies, and predicts an average 0.16 unit decrease in Porites calcifying fluid pH, i.e., ~43% increase in H+ concentration, by the end of this century as a combined result of projected ocean warming and acidification, highlighting the susceptibility of coral calcification to future changes in ocean conditions. In addition, my findings support the development of coral-based seawater pH proxies, but suggest the influences of physicochemical and biological factors other than seawater pH must be considered.

Continue reading ‘Seawater temperature and buffering capacity modulate coral calcifying pH’

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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book