Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'

Coccolithophore growth and calcification in a changing ocean

Coccolithophores are the most abundant calcifying phytoplankton in the ocean. These tiny primary producers have an important role in the global carbon cycle, substantially contributing to global ocean calcification, ballasting organic matter to the deep sea, forming part of the marine food web base, and influencing ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Despite these important impacts, coccolithophores are not explicitly simulated in most marine ecosystem models and, therefore, their impacts on carbon cycling are not represented in most Earth system models. Here, we compile field and laboratory data to synthesize overarching, across-species relationships between environmental conditions and coccolithophore growth rates and relative calcification (reported as a ratio of particulate inorganic carbon to particulate organic carbon in coccolithophore biomass, PIC/POC). We apply our relationships in a generalized coccolithophore model, estimating current surface ocean coccolithophore growth rates and relative calcification, and projecting how these may change over the 21st century using output from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble. We find that average increases in sea surface temperature of ∼2-3 °C leads to faster coccolithophore growth rates globally ( >10% increase) and increased calcification at high latitudes. Roughly an ubiquitous doubling of surface ocean pCO2 by the end of the century has the potential to moderately stimulate coccolithophore growth rates, but leads to reduced calcification ( ∼25% decrease). Decreasing nutrient availability (from warming-induced increases in stratification) produces increases in relative calcification, but leads to ∼25% slower growth rates. With all drivers combined, we observe decreases in calcification and growth in most low and mid latitude regions, with possible increases in both of these responses in most high latitude regions. Major limitations of our coccolithophore model stem from a lack of conclusive physiological responses to changes in irradiance (we do not include light limitation in our model), and a lack of physiological data for major coccolithophore species. Species within the Umbellosphaera genus, for example, are dominant in mid to low latitude regions where we predict some of the largest decreases in coccolithophore growth rate and calcification.

Continue reading ‘Coccolithophore growth and calcification in a changing ocean’

Numerical modeling of fish mortality at high CO2 concentrations representing acclimation

A mortality model was developed to predict the impact of high CO2 concentrations on marine fish. To allow for acclimation to a gradual increase of PCO2, the model includes acid–base regulation processes, such as respiration and ion-exchange at the gills. Because the physiological mechanism connecting a decrease in blood pH and mortality is not known, a statistical model was adopted. The mortality calculated for Japanese sillago experiencing a transient change of PCO2 compares moderately well with observations.

Continue reading ‘Numerical modeling of fish mortality at high CO2 concentrations representing acclimation’

Moderate increase in TCO2 enhances photosynthesis of seagrass Zostera japonica, but not Zostera marina: implications for acidification mitigation

Photosynthesis and respiration are vital biological processes that shape the diurnal variability of carbonate chemistry in nearshore waters, presumably ameliorating (daytime) or exacerbating (nighttime) short-term acidification events, which are expected to increase in severity with ocean acidification (OA). Biogenic habitats such as seagrass beds have the capacity to reduce CO2 concentration and potentially provide refugia from OA. Further, some seagrasses have been shown to increase their photosynthetic rate in response to enriched total CO2 (TCO2). Therefore, the ability of seagrass to mitigate OA may increase as concentrations of TCO2 increase. In this study, we exposed native Zostera marina and non-native Zostera japonica seagrasses from Padilla Bay, WA (USA) to various levels of irradiance and TCO2. Our results indicate that the average maximum net photosynthetic rate (Pmax) for Z. japonica as a function of irradiance and TCO2 was 3x greater than Z. marina when standardized to chlorophyll (360 ± 33 μmol TCO2 mg chl−1 h−1 and 113 ± 10 μmol TCO2 mg chl−1 h−1, respectively). Additionally, Z. japonica increased its Pmax ~50% when TCO2 increased from ~1,770 to 2,051 μmol TCO2 kg−1. In contrast, Z. marina did not display an increase in Pmax with higher TCO2, possibly due to the variance of photosynthetic rates at saturating irradiance within TCO2 treatments (coefficient of variation: 30–60%) relative to the range of TCO2 tested. Our results suggest that Z. japonica can affect the OA mitigation potential of seagrass beds, and its contribution may increase relative to Z. marina as oceanic TCO2 rises. Further, we extended our empirical results to incorporate various biomass to water volume ratios in order to conceptualize how these additional attributes affect changes in carbonate chemistry. Estimates show that the change in TCO2 via photosynthetic carbon uptake as modeled in this study can produce positive diurnal changes in pH and aragonite saturation state that are on the same order of magnitude as those estimated for whole seagrass systems. Based on our results, we predict that seagrasses Z. marina and Z. japonica both have the potential to produce short-term changes in carbonate chemistry, thus offsetting anthropogenic acidification when irradiance is saturating.

Continue reading ‘Moderate increase in TCO2 enhances photosynthesis of seagrass Zostera japonica, but not Zostera marina: implications for acidification mitigation’

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain.

We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/SCREI.

Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification towards the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success.

The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with inter-individual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance towards an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Continue reading ‘Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea’

Ocean acidification hampers sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and generation of Ca2+ oscillations of a broadcast spawning bivalve, Tegillarca granosa

Although the effect of ocean acidification on fertilization success of marine organisms is increasingly well documented, the underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. The fertilization success of broadcast spawning invertebrates depends on successful sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and standard generation of Ca2+oscillations. Therefore, the realistic effects of future ocean pCO2 levels on these specific aspects of fertilization of Tegillarca granosa were investigated in the present study through sperm velocity trials, fertilization kinetics model analysis, and intracellular Ca2+assays, respectively. Results obtained indicated that ocean acidification significantly reduced the fertilization success of T. granosa, which could be accountable by (i) decreased sperm velocity hence reducing the probability for sperm-egg collisions; (ii) lowered probability of gamete fusion for each gamete collision event; and (iii) disrupted intracellular Ca2+ oscillations.

Continue reading ‘Ocean acidification hampers sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and generation of Ca2+ oscillations of a broadcast spawning bivalve, Tegillarca granosa’

Spatial patterns of Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae in relation to pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system

Large and productive fisheries occur in regions experiencing or projected to experience ocean acidification. Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) constitute the world’s largest single-species fishery and live in one of the ocean’s highest pCO2 regions. We investigated the relationship of the distribution and abundance of Anchoveta eggs and larvae to natural gradients in pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system. Eggs and larvae, zooplankton, and data on temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a and pCO2 were collected during a cruise off Peru in 2013. pCO2 ranged from 167–1392 µatm and explained variability in egg presence, an index of spawning habitat. Zooplankton abundance explained variability in the abundance of small larvae. Within the main spawning and larva habitats (6–10°S), eggs were found in cool, low-salinity, and both extremely low (less than 200 µatm) and high (more than 900 µatm) pCO2 waters, and larvae were collected in warmer, higher salinity, and moderate (400–600 µatm) pCO2 waters. Our data support the hypothesis that Anchoveta preferentially spawned at high pCO2 and these eggs had lower survival. Enhanced understanding of the influence of pCO2 on Anchoveta spawning and larva mortality, together with pCO2 measurements, may enable predictions of ocean acidification effects on Anchoveta and inform adaptive fisheries management.

Continue reading ‘Spatial patterns of Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae in relation to pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system’

The combined effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the early life history stages of Caribbean coral and its implication for the recovery potential of Florida reefs

The early life history stages of coral are an essential component determining the recovery potential of coral reefs through sexual reproduction and recruitment. The pelagic larval phase is inherent in all coral species regardless of differing reproductive strategies and is the only time in coral life history where large scale movement is possible allowing for the repopulation of reef areas both within and outside the natal reef habitat. In the face of climate change, the larval dispersal and recruitment phase will take place in a warmer more acidic ocean if we continue on the path of unabated fossil fuel emissions. While much research has focused on how increased temperature or ocean acidification affect coral larvae independently, our understanding of how these factors interact to shape larval response is limited, especially in regards to Caribbean coral species.

To gain a better understanding of how the early life history stages of Caribbean coral may be affected by climate change, this dissertation investigates the effects of increased temperature (2.5 °C above historical averages in the Florida Keys) and carbon dioxide levels (900-1000 parts per million CO2) on corals from the Florida Reef tract by investigating the effects on larval metabolism, survivorship, settlement, and post-settlement growth and survival. Additionally, a coupled biophysical model was developed to determine the potential changes in connectivity that may result from the biological effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the larval phase. The larval respiratory response of three Caribbean coral species revealed Orbicella faveolata as the most environmentally responsive with significant increases in respiration after 1 day exposure to increased temperature (68% greater than control conditions) with a counteracting effect of ocean acidification significantly decreasing respiration. The changes in metabolism over time correlated with decreased time to competency under elevated temperature in O. faveolata larvae, resulting in a greater number of settlers (76% greater than control) and a relative increase in local retention and self-recruitment rates as revealed by the biophysical model (5 and 7% greater than control respectively). However, when increased temperature occurred in combination with elevated CO2 levels, respiration was not significantly increased relative to control conditions and development of competency is minimally impacted. This resulted in a smaller increase in settlers (13% greater than control) and no significant changes in connectivity patterns. The post-settlement phase was similarly impacted with counteracting effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on recruit growth.

Overall, this dissertation reveals the potential for adaptation to increased temperature in at least one important coral species (Orbicella faveolata) that is greatly diminished when encountered in combination with ocean acidification. These results encourage the reduction of carbon emissions to give coral species the chance to adapt to elevated temperatures through the recruitment of more resilient individuals without the additional stress of ocean acidification.

Continue reading ‘The combined effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the early life history stages of Caribbean coral and its implication for the recovery potential of Florida reefs’


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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

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