Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'

Numerical modeling of fish mortality at high CO2 concentrations representing acclimation

A mortality model was developed to predict the impact of high CO2 concentrations on marine fish. To allow for acclimation to a gradual increase of PCO2, the model includes acid–base regulation processes, such as respiration and ion-exchange at the gills. Because the physiological mechanism connecting a decrease in blood pH and mortality is not known, a statistical model was adopted. The mortality calculated for Japanese sillago experiencing a transient change of PCO2 compares moderately well with observations.

Continue reading ‘Numerical modeling of fish mortality at high CO2 concentrations representing acclimation’

Moderate increase in TCO2 enhances photosynthesis of seagrass Zostera japonica, but not Zostera marina: implications for acidification mitigation

Photosynthesis and respiration are vital biological processes that shape the diurnal variability of carbonate chemistry in nearshore waters, presumably ameliorating (daytime) or exacerbating (nighttime) short-term acidification events, which are expected to increase in severity with ocean acidification (OA). Biogenic habitats such as seagrass beds have the capacity to reduce CO2 concentration and potentially provide refugia from OA. Further, some seagrasses have been shown to increase their photosynthetic rate in response to enriched total CO2 (TCO2). Therefore, the ability of seagrass to mitigate OA may increase as concentrations of TCO2 increase. In this study, we exposed native Zostera marina and non-native Zostera japonica seagrasses from Padilla Bay, WA (USA) to various levels of irradiance and TCO2. Our results indicate that the average maximum net photosynthetic rate (Pmax) for Z. japonica as a function of irradiance and TCO2 was 3x greater than Z. marina when standardized to chlorophyll (360 ± 33 μmol TCO2 mg chl−1 h−1 and 113 ± 10 μmol TCO2 mg chl−1 h−1, respectively). Additionally, Z. japonica increased its Pmax ~50% when TCO2 increased from ~1,770 to 2,051 μmol TCO2 kg−1. In contrast, Z. marina did not display an increase in Pmax with higher TCO2, possibly due to the variance of photosynthetic rates at saturating irradiance within TCO2 treatments (coefficient of variation: 30–60%) relative to the range of TCO2 tested. Our results suggest that Z. japonica can affect the OA mitigation potential of seagrass beds, and its contribution may increase relative to Z. marina as oceanic TCO2 rises. Further, we extended our empirical results to incorporate various biomass to water volume ratios in order to conceptualize how these additional attributes affect changes in carbonate chemistry. Estimates show that the change in TCO2 via photosynthetic carbon uptake as modeled in this study can produce positive diurnal changes in pH and aragonite saturation state that are on the same order of magnitude as those estimated for whole seagrass systems. Based on our results, we predict that seagrasses Z. marina and Z. japonica both have the potential to produce short-term changes in carbonate chemistry, thus offsetting anthropogenic acidification when irradiance is saturating.

Continue reading ‘Moderate increase in TCO2 enhances photosynthesis of seagrass Zostera japonica, but not Zostera marina: implications for acidification mitigation’

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain.

We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under

Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification towards the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success.

The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with inter-individual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance towards an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Continue reading ‘Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea’

Ocean acidification hampers sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and generation of Ca2+ oscillations of a broadcast spawning bivalve, Tegillarca granosa

Although the effect of ocean acidification on fertilization success of marine organisms is increasingly well documented, the underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. The fertilization success of broadcast spawning invertebrates depends on successful sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and standard generation of Ca2+oscillations. Therefore, the realistic effects of future ocean pCO2 levels on these specific aspects of fertilization of Tegillarca granosa were investigated in the present study through sperm velocity trials, fertilization kinetics model analysis, and intracellular Ca2+assays, respectively. Results obtained indicated that ocean acidification significantly reduced the fertilization success of T. granosa, which could be accountable by (i) decreased sperm velocity hence reducing the probability for sperm-egg collisions; (ii) lowered probability of gamete fusion for each gamete collision event; and (iii) disrupted intracellular Ca2+ oscillations.

Continue reading ‘Ocean acidification hampers sperm-egg collisions, gamete fusion, and generation of Ca2+ oscillations of a broadcast spawning bivalve, Tegillarca granosa’

Spatial patterns of Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae in relation to pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system

Large and productive fisheries occur in regions experiencing or projected to experience ocean acidification. Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) constitute the world’s largest single-species fishery and live in one of the ocean’s highest pCO2 regions. We investigated the relationship of the distribution and abundance of Anchoveta eggs and larvae to natural gradients in pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system. Eggs and larvae, zooplankton, and data on temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a and pCO2 were collected during a cruise off Peru in 2013. pCO2 ranged from 167–1392 µatm and explained variability in egg presence, an index of spawning habitat. Zooplankton abundance explained variability in the abundance of small larvae. Within the main spawning and larva habitats (6–10°S), eggs were found in cool, low-salinity, and both extremely low (less than 200 µatm) and high (more than 900 µatm) pCO2 waters, and larvae were collected in warmer, higher salinity, and moderate (400–600 µatm) pCO2 waters. Our data support the hypothesis that Anchoveta preferentially spawned at high pCO2 and these eggs had lower survival. Enhanced understanding of the influence of pCO2 on Anchoveta spawning and larva mortality, together with pCO2 measurements, may enable predictions of ocean acidification effects on Anchoveta and inform adaptive fisheries management.

Continue reading ‘Spatial patterns of Anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) eggs and larvae in relation to pCO2 in the Peruvian upwelling system’

The combined effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the early life history stages of Caribbean coral and its implication for the recovery potential of Florida reefs

The early life history stages of coral are an essential component determining the recovery potential of coral reefs through sexual reproduction and recruitment. The pelagic larval phase is inherent in all coral species regardless of differing reproductive strategies and is the only time in coral life history where large scale movement is possible allowing for the repopulation of reef areas both within and outside the natal reef habitat. In the face of climate change, the larval dispersal and recruitment phase will take place in a warmer more acidic ocean if we continue on the path of unabated fossil fuel emissions. While much research has focused on how increased temperature or ocean acidification affect coral larvae independently, our understanding of how these factors interact to shape larval response is limited, especially in regards to Caribbean coral species.

To gain a better understanding of how the early life history stages of Caribbean coral may be affected by climate change, this dissertation investigates the effects of increased temperature (2.5 °C above historical averages in the Florida Keys) and carbon dioxide levels (900-1000 parts per million CO2) on corals from the Florida Reef tract by investigating the effects on larval metabolism, survivorship, settlement, and post-settlement growth and survival. Additionally, a coupled biophysical model was developed to determine the potential changes in connectivity that may result from the biological effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the larval phase. The larval respiratory response of three Caribbean coral species revealed Orbicella faveolata as the most environmentally responsive with significant increases in respiration after 1 day exposure to increased temperature (68% greater than control conditions) with a counteracting effect of ocean acidification significantly decreasing respiration. The changes in metabolism over time correlated with decreased time to competency under elevated temperature in O. faveolata larvae, resulting in a greater number of settlers (76% greater than control) and a relative increase in local retention and self-recruitment rates as revealed by the biophysical model (5 and 7% greater than control respectively). However, when increased temperature occurred in combination with elevated CO2 levels, respiration was not significantly increased relative to control conditions and development of competency is minimally impacted. This resulted in a smaller increase in settlers (13% greater than control) and no significant changes in connectivity patterns. The post-settlement phase was similarly impacted with counteracting effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on recruit growth.

Overall, this dissertation reveals the potential for adaptation to increased temperature in at least one important coral species (Orbicella faveolata) that is greatly diminished when encountered in combination with ocean acidification. These results encourage the reduction of carbon emissions to give coral species the chance to adapt to elevated temperatures through the recruitment of more resilient individuals without the additional stress of ocean acidification.

Continue reading ‘The combined effects of increased temperature and ocean acidification on the early life history stages of Caribbean coral and its implication for the recovery potential of Florida reefs’

Climate change and tropical sponges: The effect of elevated pCO₂ and temperature on the sponge holobiont

As atmospheric CO₂ concentrations rise, associated ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) are predicted to cause declines in reef-building corals globally, shifting reefs from coral-dominated systems to those dominated by less sensitive species. Sponges are important structural and functional components of coral reef ecosystems, but despite increasing field-based evidence that sponges may be ‘winners’ in response to environmental degradation, our understanding of how they respond to the combined effects of OW and OA is limited. This PhD thesis explores the response of four abundant Great Barrier Reef species – the phototrophic Carteriospongia foliascens and Cymbastela coralliophila and the heterotrophic Stylissa flabelliformis and Rhopaloeides odorabile to OW and OA levels predicted for 2100, under two CO₂ Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The overall aim of this research is to bridge gaps in our understanding of how these important coral reef organisms will respond to projected climate change, to begin to explore whether a sponge dominated state is a possible future trajectory for coral reefs.

To determine the tolerance of adult sponges to climate change, these four species were exposed to OW and OA in the Australian Institute of Marine Science’s (AIMS) National Sea Simulator (SeaSim) in a 3-month experimental study. The first data chapter explores the physiological responses of these sponges to OW and OA to gain a broad understanding of sponge holobiont survival and functioning under these conditions. In this chapter I also address the hypothesis that phototrophic and heterotrophic sponges will exhibit differential responses to climate change. In the second and third data chapters I explore the cellular lipid and fatty acid composition of sponges, and how these biochemical constituents vary with OW and OA. Lipids and fatty acids are not only vital energy stores, they form the major components of cell membranes, and the structure and composition of these biochemical constituents ultimately determines the integrity and physiological competency of a cell. Therefore through these analyses I aimed to determine how OW and OA affects the metabolic balance of sponges, and to understand mechanisms underpinning observed systemic sponge responses. Finally, to provide greater insight into the population level impacts of climate change on tropical sponges, in the last data chapter I explore the response of the phototrophic species Carteriospongia foliascens to OW/OA throughout its developmental stages.

I found that while sponges can generally tolerate climate change scenarios predicted under the RCP6.0 conditions for 2100 (30ºC/ pH 7.8), environmental projections for the end of this century under the RCP8.5 (31.5ºC/ pH 7.6) will have significant implications for their survival. Temperature effects were much stronger than OA effects for all species; however, phototrophic and heterotrophic species responded differently to OA. Elevated pCO₂ exacerbated temperature stress in heterotrophic sponges but somewhat ameliorated thermal stress in phototrophic species. Furthermore, sponges with siliceous spiculated skeletons resisted the RCP 8.5 conditions for longer than the aspiculate species. Biochemical analysis revealed that spiculated species also have greater cell membrane support features, which is likely to contribute to the observed stress tolerance. I also found that the additional energy available to phototrophic sponges under OA conditions may be used for investment into cell membrane support, providing protection against thermal stress. Finally, larval survival and settlement success of C. foliascens was unaffected by OW and OA treatments, and juvenile sponges exhibited greater tolerance than their adult counterparts, again with evidence that OA reduces OW stress for some of these life stages.

Based on the species studied here, this thesis confirms that sponges are better able to deal with OW and OA levels predicted for 2100 under RCP6.0, compared to many corals for which survival in a high CO₂ world requires OW to remain below 1.5°C. This suggests sponges may be future ‘winners’ on coral reefs under global climate change. However, if CO₂ atm concentrations reach levels predicted under RCP8.5, the prognosis for sponge survival by the end of this century changes as inter-species sponge tolerances to OW and OA differ. Under this projection it is likely we will also start to see a shift in sponge populations to those dominated by phototrophic sponges with siliceous spiculated skeletons. Overall, this thesis gives a holistic view of OW and OA impacts on tropical sponges and provides the basis from which to explore the potential for a sponge-coral regime shift in a high CO₂ world.

Continue reading ‘Climate change and tropical sponges: The effect of elevated pCO₂ and temperature on the sponge holobiont’

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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book