Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'

Quantifying sensitivity and adaptive capacity of shellfish in the Northern California Current Ecosystem to increasing prevalence of ocean acidification and hypoxia

The severity of carbonate chemistry changes from ocean acidification is predicted to increase greatly in the coming decades, with serious consequences for marine species-­ especially those reliant on calcium carbonate for structure and function (Fabry et al. 2008). The Northern California Current Ecosystem off the coast of US West Coast experiences seasonal variations in upwelling and downwelling patterns creating natural episodes of hypoxia and calcite/aragonite undersaturation, exacerbating global trends of increasing ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) (Chan et al. 2008) (Gruber et al. 2012). The goal of these experiments was to identify thresholds of tolerance and attempt to quantify a point at which variance in responses to stress collapses. This study focuses on two species: Cancer magister (Dungeness crab) and Haliotis rufescens (red abalone). These species were selected for this study based on their economic and ecological value, as well as their taxonomic differences. Respirometry was used as a proxy for metabolic activity at four different scenarios mimicking preindustrial, upwelling, contemporary upwelling, and distant future conditions by manipulating dissolved oxygen and inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. Both species showed a decrease in mean respiration rate as OAH stressors increase, including an effect in contemporary upwelling conditions. These results suggest that current exposure to ocean acidification (OA) and hypoxia do not confer resilience to these stressors for either taxa. In teasing apart the effects of OAH as multiple stressors, it was found that Dungeness crab response was more strongly driven by concentration of dissolved oxygen, while red abalone data suggested a strong interactive effect between OA and hypoxia. Not only did these two different taxa exhibit different responses to a multiple stressors, but the fact that the Dungeness crab were secondarily impacted by acidification could suggest that current management concerns may need to be focus more strongly on deoxygenation.

Continue reading ‘Quantifying sensitivity and adaptive capacity of shellfish in the Northern California Current Ecosystem to increasing prevalence of ocean acidification and hypoxia’

Bioeconomic analysis of the impact of ocean acidification associated with low recruitment of Isostichopus badionotus and implications for adaptive fishery management in the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The impact that ocean acidification (OA) could generate in the fisheries of Isostichopus badionotus at the north of the Yucatan Peninsulta, Mexico, was analysed by reducing the value of a parameter of the Beverton-Holt recruitment function, in accordance with the acidification scenarios of the Intergovermental Panel Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The behaviour of the stock and the resulting fishery were analysed in a bioeconomic model structured by age, taking into account different market prices and fishing efforts. The results were compared in decision matrices that used the MiniMax and MaxMin criteria to determine the management strategy that best reduced the impact of  acidification. The largest stock reduction occurred during the first years of exploitation (B10>B15/BO) and all the variables that were considered did stabilize with time, reaching bioeconomic equilibrium. The worst scenario for not considering acidification occurred with low market prices, while the increase in price decreased the exploitation rate. The recruitment reduction determined the maximum effort that should have been applied; under such conditions it is recommended to operate an effort of 137 boats, considering the best market price.

Continue reading ‘Bioeconomic analysis of the impact of ocean acidification associated with low recruitment of Isostichopus badionotus and implications for adaptive fishery management in the north of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico’

Ocean acidification does not limit squid metabolism via blood oxygen supply

Ocean acidification is hypothesized to limit the performance of squid owing to their exceptional oxygen demand and pH sensitivity of blood–oxygen binding, which may reduce oxygen supply in acidified waters. The critical oxygen partial pressure (Pcrit), the PO2 below which oxygen supply cannot match basal demand, is a commonly reported index of hypoxia tolerance. Any CO2-induced reduction in oxygen supply should be apparent as an increase in Pcrit. In this study, we assessed the effects of CO2 (46–143 Pa; 455–1410 μatm) on the metabolic rate and Pcrit of two squid species – Dosidicus gigas and Doryteuthis pealeii – through manipulative experiments. We also developed a model, with inputs for hemocyanin pH sensitivity, blood PCO2 and buffering capacity, that simulates blood oxygen supply under varying seawater CO2 partial pressures. We compare model outputs with measured Pcrit in squid. Using blood–O2 parameters from the literature for model inputs, we estimated that, in the absence of blood acid–base regulation, an increase in seawater PCO2 to 100 Pa (≈1000 μatm) would result in a maximum drop in arterial hemocyanin–O2 saturation by 1.6% at normoxia and a Pcrit increase of ≈0.5 kPa. Our live-animal experiments support this supposition, as CO2 had no effect on measured metabolic rate or Pcrit in either squid species.

Continue reading ‘Ocean acidification does not limit squid metabolism via blood oxygen supply’

Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery

Ocean acidification has the potential to significantly impact both aquaculture and wild-caught mollusk fisheries around the world. In this work, we build upon a previously published integrated assessment model of the US Atlantic Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery to determine the possible future of the fishery under a suite of climate, economic, biological, and management scenarios. We developed a 4x4x4x4 hypercube scenario framework that resulted in 256 possible combinations of future scenarios. The study highlights the potential impacts of ocean acidification and management for a subset of future climate scenarios, with a high CO2 emissions case (RCP8.5) and lower CO2 emissions and climate mitigation case (RCP4.5). Under RCP4.5 and the highest impact and management scenario, ocean acidification has the potential to reduce sea scallop biomass by approximately 13% by the end of century; however, the lesser impact scenarios cause very little change. Under RCP8.5, sea scallop biomass may decline by more than 50% by the end of century, leading to subsequent declines in industry landings and revenue. Management-set catch limits improve the outcomes of the fishery under both climate scenarios, and the addition of a 10% area closure increases future biomass by more than 25% under the highest ocean acidification impacts. However, increased management still does not stop the projected long-term decline of the fishery under ocean acidification scenarios. Given our incomplete understanding of acidification impacts on P. magellanicus, these declines, along with the high value of the industry, suggest population-level effects of acidification should be a clear research priority. Projections described in this manuscript illustrate both the potential impacts of ocean acidification under a business-as-usual and a moderately strong climate-policy scenario. We also illustrate the importance of fisheries management targets in improving the long-term outcome of the P. magellanicus fishery under potential global change.

Continue reading ‘Projected impacts of future climate change, ocean acidification, and management on the US Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery’

Quantitative interpretation of vertical profiles of calcium and pH in the coral coelenteron


• In this study, pH and Ca2+ microsensors were reported together with a theoretical analysis by a reaction-diffusion model to study the dynamics of pH and Ca2+ in the coelenteron of the reef corals Turbinaria reniformis and Acropora millepora.
• Our study showed that Ca2+ concentrations linearly decreased from the mouth to the base of the coelenteron due to calcification.
• The estimated H+ gradient between the coelenteron cavity and the calcification site was >10 times higher than previously predicted between outside seawater and the calcification site.
• Our numerical simulation reveals that OA reduces the internal pH at the base of the coelenteron, and this pH decline is greatly amplified in corals with a deeper coelenteron.


Scleratinian corals (hard corals) and their symbiotic algae are the ecological engineers of biodiverse and geological important coral reef habitats. The complex, linked physiological processes that enable the holobiont (coral + algae) to calcify and generate reef structures are consequently of great interest. However, the mechanism of calcification is difficult to study for several reasons including the small spatial scales of the processes and the close coupling between the symbiont and host. In this study, we explore the utility of pH and Ca2+ microelectrodes for constraining the rates and spatial distribution of photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification. The work focuses on vertical profiles of pH and Ca2+ through the coelenteron cavity, a semi-isolated compartment of modified seawater amenable to quantitative interpretation. In two studied species, Turbinaria reniformis and Acropora millepora, Ca2+ concentrations decreased in a roughly linear manner from the mouth to the base of the coelenteron, indicating the primary physiological process affecting Ca2+ concentration is removal for calcification below the coelenteron. In contrast, the H+ concentration remained relatively constant over much of the coelenteron cavity before it increased sharply toward the base of the coelenteron, indicative of proton-pumping from the calcification fluid below. The estimated H+ gradient between the coelenteron cavity and the calcification site was >10 times higher than previously predicted. Consequently, the energy required to export protons from the calcifying fluid was estimated to be ~3 times higher than previously calculated. A one-dimensional reaction-diffusion model was used to interpret the pH profile considering the effects of photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification. This model provided a good fit to the observed pH profile and helped to constrain the rates and spatial distribution of these processes. Our modeling results also suggested that adult corals with deeper polyps may be more sensitive to ocean acidification (OA) because of enhanced difficulty to transport H+ out of the coelenteron and into the surrounding seawater.

Continue reading ‘Quantitative interpretation of vertical profiles of calcium and pH in the coral coelenteron’

Inorganic carbon and pH dependency of Trichodesmium’s photosynthetic rates

We established the relationship between photosynthetic carbon fixation rates and pH, CO2 and HCO3 concentrations in the diazotroph Trichodesmium erythraeum IMS101. Inorganic 14C-assimilation was measured in TRIS-buffered ASW medium where the absolute and relative concentrations of CO2, pH and HCO3 were manipulated. First, we varied the total dissolved inorganic carbon concentration (TIC) (< 0 to ~ 5 mM) at constant pH, so ratios of CO2 and HCO3 remained relatively constant. Second, we varied pH (~ 8.54 to 7.52) at constant TIC, so CO2 increased whilst HCO3 declined. We found that 14C-assimilation could be described by the same function of CO2 for both approaches but showed different dependencies on HCO3 when pH was varied at constant TIC than when TIC was varied at constant pH. A numerical model of Trichodesmium’s CCM showed carboxylation rates are modulated by HCO3 and pH. The decrease in Ci assimilation at low CO2, when TIC was varied, is due to HCO3 uptake limitation of the carboxylation rate. Conversely, when pH was varied, Ci assimilation declined due to a high-pH mediated increase in HCO3 and CO2 leakage rates, potentially coupled to other processes (uncharacterised within the CCM model) that restrict Ci assimilation rates under high-pH conditions.

Continue reading ‘Inorganic carbon and pH dependency of Trichodesmium’s photosynthetic rates’

Probabilistic risk assessment of the effect of acidified seawater on development stages of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis)

Growing evidence indicates that ocean acidification has a significant impact on calcifying marine organisms. However, there is a lack of exposure risk assessments for aquatic organisms under future environmentally relevant ocean acidification scenarios. The objective of this study was to investigate the probabilistic effects of acidified seawater on the life-stage response dynamics of fertilization, larvae growth, and larvae mortality of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis). We incorporated the regulation of primary body cavity (PBC) pH in response to seawater pH into the assessment by constructing an explicit model to assess effective life-stage response dynamics to seawater or PBC pH levels. The likelihood of exposure to ocean acidification was also evaluated by addressing the uncertainties of the risk characterization. For unsuccessful fertilization, the estimated 50% effect level of seawater acidification (EC50 SW ) was 0.55 ± 0.014 (mean ± SE) pH units. This life stage was more sensitive than growth inhibition and mortality, for which the EC50 values were 1.13 and 1.03 pH units, respectively. The estimated 50% effect levels of PBC pH (EC50 PBC ) were 0.99 ± 0.05 and 0.88 ± 0.006 pH units for growth inhibition and mortality, respectively. We also predicted the probability distributions for seawater and PBC pH levels in 2100. The level of unsuccessful fertilization had 50 and 90% probability risks of 5.07–24.51 (95% CI) and 0–6.95%, respectively. We conclude that this probabilistic risk analysis model is parsimonious enough to quantify the multiple vulnerabilities of the green sea urchin while addressing the systemic effects of ocean acidification. This study found a high potential risk of acidification affecting the fertilization of the green sea urchin, whereas there was no evidence for adverse effects on growth and mortality resulting from exposure to the predicted acidified environment.

Continue reading ‘Probabilistic risk assessment of the effect of acidified seawater on development stages of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis)’

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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book