Tropical coral reefs exhibit high variability in coral metabolism, driven by complex interactions among physical, chemical, and biological processes. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of coral metabolism and their drivers is critical, as such variability may underpin corals’ adaptive capacity to withstand a warming and acidifying ocean. Here, we use a coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical–physiological model to investigate spatial and diel variations in coral metabolic processes (photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification) across Moorea’s north shore reef system under three prevailing wave regimes. We find that photosynthesis varies little across the reef, whereas respiration and calcification show pronounced spatial heterogeneity. These spatial patterns closely mirror the ones in seawater carbonate chemistry and depend strongly on wave-driven flow. Hydrodynamics regulate diffusive exchanges between coral tissues and surrounding seawater, and eventually generate distinct internal chemical environments (in the coelenteron and calcifying fluid) across the reef. Landward reef regions exhibit the greatest spatial and diel variability in coral metabolism. Low-wave, slow-flow conditions amplify metabolic fluctuations throughout the reef, but more strongly in the landward regions. Overall, our results highlight how interactions among transport processes, carbonate chemistry, and coral physiology produce strong day-night fluctuations and spatially heterogeneous but structured metabolic patterns across the reef, which vary systematically with wave conditions.
Continue reading ‘Hydrodynamic control of coral metabolism: a coupled modeling approach linking flow, physiology, and reef-scale biogeochemistry’Posts Tagged 'individualmodeling'
Hydrodynamic control of coral metabolism: a coupled modeling approach linking flow, physiology, and reef-scale biogeochemistry
Published 2 June 2026 Science Leave a CommentTags: biogeochemistry, biological response, chemistry, community composition, corals, individualmodeling, modeling, otherprocess, physiology, South Pacific
Impacts of ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on abalone growth and reproduction: a dynamic energy budget model approach across SSP scenarios
Published 18 May 2026 Science ClosedTags: biological response, field, individualmodeling, laboratory, modeling, mollusks, morphology, performance, physiology, reproduction
Ocean acidification and warming (OAW) are expected to alter physiology, growth and reproduction of marine ectotherms, yet their combined effects on life-history traits remain unresolved, particularly under poorly defined future food conditions. Using a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model, we investigated how interacting changes in temperature, seawater pH, and food quality may shape somatic growth and reproductive phenology of the European abalone Haliotis tuberculata across four contrasting coastal environments and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios. OAW effects were modeled as increased metabolic maintenance costs, while reduced food quality, driven by OAW, lowered assimilation efficiency, aligning with experimentally-supported limited compensatory feeding.,Our results reveal that warming and food quality strongly drive somatic growth, whit ocean acidification playing a minor role within the modeled range. Food quality remained the primary determinant of maximum body size, while warming amplified growth across all locations, with the largest proportional increases in cooler northern bays. Individuals in the warmest areas remained the largest across scenarios within the model framework. Reproductive timing also shifted consistently, with first spawning occurring markedly earlier under end-of-century conditions, advancing consistently with scenario intensity. Food quality modulated reproductive investment but had weaker effects on the timing of first spawning., These findings highlight that food quality critically mediates organismal responses to OAW and can offset temperature-driven gains in growth and reproduction. By combining expected nutritional constraints with SSP scenarios, our DEB-based approach provide mechanistic insights into the future responses of benthic marine invertebrates to climate change, highlighting the value of these scenario-based projections for better management strategies.
Continue reading ‘Impacts of ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on abalone growth and reproduction: a dynamic energy budget model approach across SSP scenarios’Intracellular acid-base regulation mediates a trade-off between shell and somatic growth in a clam under ocean acidification
Published 9 April 2026 Science ClosedTags: biological response, growth, individualmodeling, laboratory, mesocosms, modeling, molecular biology, mollusks, North Pacific, physiology
Highlights
- Clams actively regulate intracellular pH against ocean acidification via CAc
- RNAi confirms CAc’s essential role in H+ efflux, measured by in vivo SIET.
- A CAc-sAC-NKA network forms a conserved regulatory pathway for acid-base balance.
- DEB model shows this pH defense sustains shell linear growth despite metabolic costs.
SUMMARY
Ocean acidification (OA) is predicted to threaten marine bivalves, casting them as passive victims of changing carbonate chemistry. Contributing to a revised understanding, we identified a conserved mechanism for acid-base regulation that supports intracellular resilience. Using the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum as a model, this study demonstrated that intracellular pH (pHi) homeostasis under elevated pCO2 was maintained through cytosolic carbonic anhydrase (CAc)-mediated H+ efflux. A causal link was established by combining in vivo scanning ion-selective electrode technique (SIET) with RNA interference (RNAi), where RpCAc knockdown suppressed H+ efflux and compromised pHi. A coordinated regulatory network involving CAc, soluble adenylyl cyclase (sAC), and Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA) was synergistically upregulated, suggesting an evolved adaptive pathway. Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) modeling, calibrated with experimental data, revealed that this cellular compensation carries a high energetic cost, leading to a significant reallocation of resources: shell growth was maintained, but somatic growth was severely suppressed. These results elucidate a conserved cytoprotective mechanism that enables short-term tolerance of OA at a substantial somatic cost, redefining resilience to include energetic trade-offs.
Continue reading ‘Intracellular acid-base regulation mediates a trade-off between shell and somatic growth in a clam under ocean acidification’Colony formation sustains the global competitiveness of nitrogen-fixing Trichodesmium under ocean acidification
Published 5 March 2026 Science ClosedTags: biological response, growth, individualmodeling, modeling, nitrogen fixation, photosynthesis, physiology, prokaryotes
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions drive ocean acidification. Trichodesmium, a key marine nitrogen-fixing cyanobacterium, displays contrasting growth responses to ocean acidification across morphotypes: negative in filamentous free trichomes but neutral or positive in colonies. However, lacking mechanistic understanding for these discrepancies has impaired our ability to predict Trichodesmium’s ecophysiological response. Here, we develop ecophysiological models to underpin mechanisms behind these divergent responses. For free trichomes, ocean acidification reduces nitrogen-fixing enzyme activity and photosynthetic energy production. In colonies, however, it alleviates copper and ammonia toxicity within the microenvironment—likely synergizing with enhanced iron acquisition—thereby outweighing minor benefit from relieved inorganic carbon limitation in the colony center. Projections suggest that globally, ocean acidification will reduce nitrogen fixation of trichomes by 16 ± 6% but increase that of colonies by 19 ± 24% within this century. By resolving morphotype-specific mechanisms, our study clarifies Trichodesmium’s adaptive strategies for sustaining its competitiveness and biogeochemical impacts in the changing ocean.
Continue reading ‘Colony formation sustains the global competitiveness of nitrogen-fixing Trichodesmium under ocean acidification’Understanding coral health from reactor engineering perspective: multiphysics modeling of coral–environment interactions
Published 30 January 2026 Science ClosedTags: biological response, corals, individualmodeling, modeling, photosynthesis, physiology, respiration
Coral, as a bioreactor, has to continuously interact with surrounding environment to maintain a healthy state. A multi-physics reaction engineering model has been developed to capture this interaction. The coral interior is modeled as interconnected reaction units respectively for photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification, whose reaction kinetics are influenced by environmental fluctuations. Coupling between coral and environment is realized by bi-directional mass transfer at the coral-seawater interface, with consideration of the unique flow fields induced by ciliary beating. By resorting to this comprehensive model, we discover that ciliary beating demonstrates distinctively different diurnal and nocturnal functions. During daytime, beating can help reduce photosynthetic oxygen accumulation to prevent hyperoxia-induced mortality, while enhancing carbon dioxide uptake efficiency to promote nutrient production. At night, however, beating promotes oxygen acquisition for adequate respiration, while expelling carbon dioxide to inhibit symbiotic destruction under acidic stress. The model further enables mechanistic analysis of the detrimental impact of climate change on coral health, where the influences from two key factors (i.e., temperature and CO2 level) can be decoupled. It’s interesting to find out that the elevated temperature plays a dominant role during daytime, while at night the coral is dominantly influenced by rising CO2 level.
Continue reading ‘Understanding coral health from reactor engineering perspective: multiphysics modeling of coral–environment interactions’Colony formation sustains the global competitiveness of N2-fixing Trichodesmium under ocean acidification
Published 10 November 2025 Science ClosedTags: biological response, growth, individualmodeling, modeling, nitrogen fixation, photosynthesis, primary production, prokaryotes
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions drive ocean acidification (OA). Trichodesmium, a key marine N2 fixer, displays contrasting growth responses to OA across morphotypes, with negative responses in free trichomes but neutral or positive in colonies. However, the lack of mechanistic understanding for these discrepancies has impaired our ability to predict the ecophysiological response of Trichodesmium in the changing ocean. Here, we developed ecophysiological models of Trichodesmium and underpin mechanisms behind contrasting responses to OA by distinct morphological adaptations. For free trichomes, our diurnal model corroborated previous findings that OA impairs nitrogenase efficiency and photosynthetic energy production. In colonies, however, OA alleviated copper and ammonia toxicity within the microenvironment, potentially with increased iron acquisition synergies, outweighing the minor effects of inorganic carbon limitation relief in the colony center. Projections suggest that globally, OA will reduce N2 fixation of trichomes by 16±6% but increase that of colonies by 19±24% within this century. By resolving morphotype-specific mechanisms, our study clarifies Trichodesmium’s adaptive strategies, which may enable it to sustain its competitiveness and biogeochemical impacts in the changing ocean.
Continue reading ‘Colony formation sustains the global competitiveness of N2-fixing Trichodesmium under ocean acidification’Internal hydrodynamics within the skeleton of Acropora pulchra coral
Published 11 February 2025 Science ClosedTags: biological response, corals, dissolution, individualmodeling, modeling
Highlights
- Consistent flow patterns are observed in Acropora coral CT scans-based simulations
- Implications of these patterns for coral growth are discussed in detail
- A prediction of coral skeleton dissolution under ocean acidification is presented
Summary
Many marine life forms, like Acropora coral, develop abiotic components to host and support the growth of living organisms. Using numerical models based on real coral samples reconstructed from micro-computed tomography (CT) scan images, we simulated internal flows inside the skeletons of Acropora pulchra coral under the influence of ambient ocean currents. The results showed that the coral’s skeletal structure, with specially connected pore space, leads to the flow and material transport within and through the skeleton to assist the coral growth and stability. However, under intensified ocean acidification, the skeletal internal flow may induce the dissolution of aragonite inside the skeleton and weaken the whole coral structure.
Continue reading ‘Internal hydrodynamics within the skeleton of Acropora pulchra coral’Ocean acidification may contribute to recruitment failure for Bering Sea red king crab
Published 29 January 2025 Science ClosedTags: biological response, crustaceans, fisheries, individualmodeling, modeling, North Pacific, reproduction
We used semi-parametric Bayesian regression to determine whether ocean acidification or climate warming could explain declining productivity for southeast Bering Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtchaticus). Negative effects of acidification explained ~21% of recruitment variability over 1980-2023, and ~45% since 2000. Ocean warming had a negligible effect in our analysis. Model-estimated annual mean bottom pH in the region has fallen from ~8.03 in 1980 to ~7.89 in 2023, approaching levels that reduce juvenile survival in laboratory studies. Improved model validation and better understanding of potential threshold effects on red king crab are needed to better understand the possible population-level acidification effect that we demonstrate.
Continue reading ‘Ocean acidification may contribute to recruitment failure for Bering Sea red king crab’Meta-analysis of larval bivalve growth in response to ocean acidification and its application to sea scallop larval dispersal in the Mid-Atlantic Bight
Published 21 January 2025 Science ClosedTags: biological response, growth, individualmodeling, modeling, mollusks, reproduction, review
Ocean acidification, caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and coastal physical, biological, and chemical processes, is an ongoing threat to carbonate-utilizing organisms living in productive coastal shelves. Bivalves exposed to acidification have shown reduced growth, reproduction, and metabolic processes, with larval stages exhibiting the greatest susceptibility. Here, we compile results from published studies on larval bivalve growth responses to acidification to estimate a relationship between larval growth and seawater aragonite saturation state. We then apply this relationship to a larval dispersal individual-based model for Atlantic sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus), an economically vital species in the Mid-Atlantic Bight that is historically under-studied in acidification research. To date, there have been no published studies on sea scallop larval response to ocean acidification. Model simulations allowed the identification of potential impacts of acidification on scallop success in the region. Results show that larval sea scallops that are sensitive to ocean acidification had a 17% lower settlement success rate and over 50% reduction in larval passage between major Mid Atlantic Bight fisheries habitats than those that are not sensitive to acidification. Additionally, temperature and ocean acidification interact as drivers of larval success, with aragonite saturation states > 3.0 compensating for temperature-induced mortality (> 19 ˚C) in some cases. This balance between drivers influences larval settlement success across spatial and interannual scales in the Mid Atlantic Bight.
Continue reading ‘Meta-analysis of larval bivalve growth in response to ocean acidification and its application to sea scallop larval dispersal in the Mid-Atlantic Bight’Acidification and nutrient management are projected to cause reductions in shell and tissue weights of oysters in a coastal plain estuary
Published 27 November 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, individualmodeling, modeling, mollusks, morphology, North Atlantic
Coastal acidification, warming, and nutrient management actions all alter water quality conditions that marine species experience, with potential impacts to their physiological processes. Decreases in calcite saturation state (ΩCa) and food availability, combined with warming water temperatures, pose a threat to calcifying organisms; however, the magnitude of future changes in estuarine systems is challenging to predict and is not well known. This study aims to determine how and where oysters will be affected by future acidification, warming, and nutrient reductions, and the relative effects of these stressors. To address these goals, an oyster bioenergetics model for Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) was embedded in a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model implemented for two tributaries in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Model simulations were forced with projected future conditions (mid-21st century atmospheric CO2, atmospheric temperature, and managed nutrient reductions) and compared with a realistic present-day reference run. Together, all three stressors are projected to reduce ΩCa and growth of oyster shell and tissue. Increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature are both projected to cause widespread reductions in ΩCa. The resulting reductions in oyster shell and tissue growth will be most severe along the tributary shoals. Future warming during peak oyster growing seasons is projected to have the strongest negative influence on tissue and shell growth, due to summer water temperatures reducing filtration rates, enhancing shell dissolution and oyster respiration rates, and increasing organic matter remineralization rates, thus reducing food availability. Nutrient reductions will exacerbate deficits in oyster food availability, contributing to further reductions in growth. Quantifying the effects of these stressors provides insight on the areas in the lower bay where oysters will be most vulnerable to mid 21st-century conditions.
Continue reading ‘Acidification and nutrient management are projected to cause reductions in shell and tissue weights of oysters in a coastal plain estuary’Projected impacts of climate change and watershed management on carbonate chemistry and oyster growth in a coastal plain estuary
Published 15 August 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, chemistry, individualmodeling, modeling, mollusks, morphology, North Atlantic
Coastal acidification, warming, and nutrient management actions all alter water quality conditions that marine species experience, with potential impacts to their physiological processes. Decreases in calcite saturation state (ΩCa) and food availability, combined with warming water temperatures, pose a threat to calcifying organisms; however, the magnitude of future changes in estuarine systems is challenging to predict and not well known. This study aims to determine how and where oysters will be affected by future acidification, warming, and nutrient reductions, and the relative effects of these stressors. To address these goals, an oyster bioenergetics model for Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica) was embedded in a 3-D coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemistry model implemented for tributaries in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Model simulations were forced with projected future conditions (mid-21st century atmospheric CO2, atmospheric temperature, and managed nutrient reductions) and compared with a realistic present-day reference run. Together, all three stressors are projected to reduce ΩCa and growth of oyster shell and tissue. Increased atmospheric CO2 and temperature are both projected to cause widespread reductions in ΩCa. The resulting reductions in oyster shell and tissue growth will be most severe along the tributary shoals. Future warming during peak oyster growing seasons is projected to have the strongest negative influence on tissue and shell growth, due to summer water temperatures reducing filtration rates, enhancing respiration and shell dissolution rates, and increasing organic matter remineralization rates, thus reducing food availability. Nutrient reductions will exacerbate deficits in oyster food availability, contributing to further reductions in growth. Quantifying the effects of these stressors provides insight on the areas in the lower bay where oysters will be most vulnerable to mid 21stcentury conditions.
Continue reading ‘Projected impacts of climate change and watershed management on carbonate chemistry and oyster growth in a coastal plain estuary’Modelling the multiple action pathways of projected climate change on the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early life stages
Published 23 July 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, chemistry, fish, growth, individualmodeling, modeling, mortality, North Pacific
Highlights
- We used projections of oceanographic conditions and an individual-based model (IBM) to study the impacts of climate on the early life stages of Pacific cod in the eastern Bering Sea from 2021 to 2100.
- Besides temperature and prey density, we also examined the impacts of ocean acidification on some biological aspects of cod larvae.
- We found that a high CO2 emission scenario (RCP8.5) may increase starvation events and decrease cod survival, while the moderate CO2 emission scenario (RCP4.5) may not produce significant impacts.
- We identified a retention area in the southeastern Bering Sea that may provide a refuge for larval cod under future environmental conditions.
- Our IBM can be used for other gadids in the same region to study the impacts of projected climate conditions on early life stages.
Abstract
Understanding how future ocean conditions will impact early life stages and population recruitment of fishes is critical for adapting fisheries communities to climate change. In this study, we incorporated projected changes in physical and biological ecosystem dynamics from an oceanographic model into a mechanistic individual-based model for larval and juvenile stages of the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea. We particularly investigated the impacts of ocean currents, temperature, prey density, and pCO2 on the hatching success, growth, survival, and spatial distribution of this species during 2021–2100. We evaluated two CO2 emission scenarios: RCP8.5 (high CO2 emissions, low mitigation efforts) and RCP4.5 (medium CO2 emissions and mitigation efforts). We found that the increase in temperature and decrease in prey density were the main drivers of faster growth rates and lower survival through increased starvation by the end of the century. Conversely, pCO2 had negligible impacts, which suggests that this species might be resilient to ocean acidification. The largest effects were observed under the high CO2 emission scenario, while the RCP4.5 projections displayed minimal impacts. We also identified an area with favourable conditions in the southeastern Bering Sea that will likely persist in future decades. This study provides relevant information on the future impacts of climate change on Pacific cod, and our results can be used to implement and inform climate-ready management for this important stock in Alaska.
Continue reading ‘Modelling the multiple action pathways of projected climate change on the Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) early life stages’Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change
Published 7 March 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, chemistry, field, individualmodeling, modeling, mollusks, North Pacific, otherprocess
Highlights
- The salinity and temperature primarily dictate the distribution of C. sikamea.
- C. sikamea exhibits a south-to-north future migration pattern due to rising sea temperatures.
- By 2100s, C. sikamea’s northern boundary is expected to surpass 33–34°N.
- C. sikamea’s habitat suitability may decline by 2050s but recover gradually by 2100s.
Abstract
Global climate change has led to ocean warming, acidification, hypoxia, and alterations in the biogeochemical circulation, thereby influencing the distribution, abundance, and population patterns of marine organisms. Particularly, oysters, which tend to attach to rocks in intertidal zones, may be more vulnerable to climate change. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), is renowned for its nutritional content, breeding benefits, and ecosystem restoration abilities. Previous research has demonstrated that the geographical range of C. sikamea in China has gradually shifted. In this study, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to predict the suitability for C. sikamea under different climate scenarios. We utilized first-hand data collected by our research team over the past 14 years, which consisted of 3030 C. sikamea samples from seven provinces in China. The contribution rate of the environmental variables and the jackknife test revealed that salinity (13–21PSS) and temperature (24.6–25.5 °C) are the primary factors influencing the distribution of C. sikamea. The future distribution shows a south-to-north migration pattern triggered by increased sea temperature, resulting in increased suitability at higher latitudes. The migratory effect is more dramatic under the high-emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5)) compared to medium-(RCP4.5/RCP6.0) and low-emission scenarios (RCP2.6) and becomes increasingly evident over time. Model predictions indicated that C. sikamea could maintain its suitability under all climate scenarios until the 2050s. However, by the 2100s, the suitability is expected to shift northward beyond the 33–34°N boundary under RCP2.6, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, extending to the northern coast of Jiangsu. The suitability of C. sikamea within its habitat may experience a significant decline by the 2050s, followed by a gradual recovery over the next 50 years. The potential northward migration of C. sikamea presents new prospects for oyster aquaculture and artificial reefs establishment in China. However, this migration will inevitably lead to significant impacts on the invaded ecosystems and overall biodiversity.
Continue reading ‘Potential distribution of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) along coastal China under global climate change’Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification
Published 9 February 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, individualmodeling, laboratory, modeling, morphology, multiple factors, phanerogams, photosynthesis, physiology, South Pacific, temperature
Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7–26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.
Continue reading ‘Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification’Modeled foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in benthic foraminifera helps reconstruct calcifying fluid composition
Published 5 February 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, calcification, individualmodeling, modeling, physiology, protists
Foraminifera are unicellular organisms that inhabit the oceans. They play an important role in the global carbon cycle and record valuable paleoclimate information through the uptake of trace elements such as strontium into their calcitic shells. Understanding how foraminifera control their internal fluid composition to make calcite is important for predicting their response to ocean acidification and for reliably interpreting the chemical and isotopic compositions of their shells. Here, we model foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in the benthic foraminifera Cibicides wuellerstorfi and Cibicidoides mundulus based on insights from inorganic calcite experiments. The numerical model reconciles inter-ocean and taxonomic differences in benthic foraminifer strontium partitioning relationships and enables us to reconstruct the composition of the calcifying fluid. We find that strontium partitioning and mineral growth rates of foraminiferal calcite are not strongly affected by changes in external seawater pH (within 7.8–8.1) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, within 2100–2300 μmol/kg) due to a regulated calcite saturation state at the site of shell formation.
Continue reading ‘Modeled foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in benthic foraminifera helps reconstruct calcifying fluid composition’Sometimes (often?) responses to multiple stressors can be predicted from single-stressor effects: a case study using an agent-based population model of croaker in the Gulf of Mexico
Published 18 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, BRcommunity, communitymodeling, fish, individualmodeling, modeling, morphology, mortality, multiple factors, North Atlantic, otherprocess, oxygen, performance, reproduction, temperature
Abstract
Objective
Rapid changes in the world’s oceans make assessment of fish population responses to multiple stressors, especially on scales relevant to management, increasingly important. I used an existing agent-based, spatially explicit model of Atlantic Croaker Micropogonias undulatus in the northern Gulf of Mexico to examine how temperature, hypoxia, and ocean acidification, singly and in combinations, affect long-term population dynamics.
Methods
I performed a factorial simulation experiment with each stressor at three levels and analyzed various treatment combinations to assess the additivity and multiplicity of interactions. The response variables were long-term equilibrium (final year) values of spawning stock biomass (SSB), recruitment, weight at age, and two measures of stock productivity (recruits per SSB and maximum recruitment) derived from the spawner–recruit relationship fitted to model output. I used the single-stressor effects from the experiment to predict how the response variables would change when all three stressors were changed. Single-stressor effects were combined as the sum of the fractional changes (additive scale) and the product of ratios of changes (multiplicative scale) and compared to the responses in simulations with all stressors imposed.
Result
Analyzing the factorial design for two-way and three-way interactions showed that there were many interactions on the additive scale but very few on the multiplicative scale. Thus, the responses to multiple stressors were well predicted from single stressor effects when combined as multiplicative effects.
Conclusion
I discuss how the lack of strong interactions could be due to model assumptions, the structure of the model, or oversimplified representation of stressor effects. Alternatively, the model and analysis may be sufficiently realistic and weak interactions on the multiplicative scale may be common. This would reduce a complicated multi-factor situation to a series of more tractable single-factor effects. A critical next step is to determine how we can a priori identify situations of low interactions (i.e., predictable from single-stressor effects) without having to already know the multi-stressor response.
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Continue reading ‘Sometimes (often?) responses to multiple stressors can be predicted from single-stressor effects: a case study using an agent-based population model of croaker in the Gulf of Mexico’Using meta-analysis to explore the roles of global upwelling exposure and experimental design in bivalve responses to low pH
Published 16 August 2023 Science ClosedTags: biological response, individualmodeling, modeling, mollusks, physiology, respiration, review
Highlights
- Meta-analysis was used to assess bivalve responses to low pH.
- Strong upwelling regions may yield bivalves that are less sensitive to low pH.
- Upwelling explains up to 49 % variability of bivalve metabolic responses to low pH.
- Larger carbonate chemistry deltas in experiments yield stronger responses.
Abstract
Low pH conditions, associated with ocean acidification, represent threats to many commercially and ecologically important organisms, including bivalves. However, there are knowledge gaps regarding factors explaining observed differences in biological responses to low pH in laboratory experiments. Specific sources of local adaptation such as upwelling exposure and the role of experimental design, such as carbonate chemistry parameter changes, should be considered. Linking upwelling exposure, as an individual oceanographic phenomenon, to responses measured in laboratory experiments may further our understanding of local adaptation to global change. Here, meta-analysis is used to test the hypotheses that upwelling exposure and experimental design affect outcomes of individual, laboratory-based studies that assess bivalve metabolic (clearance and respiration rate) responses to low pH. Results show that while bivalves generally decrease metabolic activity in response to low pH, upwelling exposure and experimental design can significantly impact outcomes. Bivalves from downwelling or weak upwelling areas decrease metabolic activity in response to low pH, but bivalves from strong upwelling areas increase or do not change metabolic activity in response to low pH. Furthermore, experimental temperature, exposure time and magnitude of the change in carbonate chemistry parameters all significantly affect outcomes. These results suggest that bivalves from strong upwelling areas may be less sensitive to low pH. This furthers our understanding of local adaptation to global change by demonstrating that upwelling alone can explain up to 49 % of the variability associated with bivalve metabolic responses to low pH. Furthermore, when interpreting outcomes of individual, laboratory experiments, scientists should be aware that higher temperatures, shorter exposure times and larger changes in carbonate chemistry parameters may increase the chance of suppressed metabolic activity.
Continue reading ‘Using meta-analysis to explore the roles of global upwelling exposure and experimental design in bivalve responses to low pH’Model development to assess carbon fluxes during shell formation in blue mussels
Published 28 July 2023 Newsletters and reports , Science ClosedTags: biogeochemistry, biological response, calcification, individualmodeling, modeling, morphology
In order to quantify the amount of carbonate, precipitated as calcium-carbonate in the shells of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) in a temperate climate, an existing Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the blue mussel was adapted by separating shell growth from soft tissue growth. Hereby, two parameters were added to the original DEB-model, a calcification cost [J/mgCaCO3] and an energy allocation fraction [-], which resulted in the energy allocated for structural growth being divided between shell and meat growth. As values for these new parameters were lacking, they were calibrated by fitting the model to field data. Calibration results showed that an Energy allocation fraction of 0.5 and a calcification cost of 0.9 J/mgCaCO3, resulted in the best fit when fitted on 2017 and 2018 field data separately. These values however, show the best fit for data obtained within the first couple of years of the shellfish life, and do not take later years into account. Also it could be discussed that some parameters vary throughout the lifespan of the species. The results were compared to a regular DEB model, where the shell output was calculated through a simple allometric relationship. It is sometimes assumed that the carbon storage in shell material as calcium carbonate could be regarded as a form of carbon sequestration, with a positive impact on the atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, studies on the physical-chemical processes related to shell formation have shown that from an oceanographic perspective, shell formation should be regarded as a source of atmospheric CO2 rather than a sink. The removal of carbonates, through the biocalcification process, reduces the buffer capacity (alkalinity) of the water to store CO2. As a result CO2 is released from the water to the atmosphere when shell material is formed. The actual amount of CO2 that escapes from the water to the atmosphere as a result of biocalcification depends strongly on local water characteristics. In this study, the effect of calcification by mussels on the CO2 flux to the atmosphere is studied using an adapted DEB model where energy costs of calcification are modelled explicitly. The model was subsequently run under two future climate scenarios, (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.3) with elevated temperature and decreased pH, and the total released CO2 as a result of shell formation was calculated with the SeaCarb model. This showed growth of mussels, under future climate conditions to be slower, and with that the cumulative shell mass and carbonate precipitated to CaCO3 to decrease. Yet the amount of CO2 released, due to biocalcification, increased. This is due to the fact that the amount of CO2 released/gr of CaCO3 precipitated will be higher, as a result of the decreased buffering capacity of seawater under future climatic environmental conditions.
In summary the conclusions of the project were:
- Biocalcification (shell formation) of marine organisms, such as bivalves, cannot be regarded as a process resulting in negative CO2 emission to the atmosphere;
- The actual amount of CO2 that, due to biocalcification, is released from the water to the atmosphere depends on the physicochemical characteristics of the water, which are influenced by (future) climate conditions;
- Our first model calculations suggest that at future climate conditions mussel’s grow rate will be somewhat reduced. While the amount of CO2 that due to biocalcification, escapes to the atmosphere during its life-time will slightly increase. Making the ratio of g CO2 release/g CaCO3 precipitated slightly higher;
- Our model calculations should be considered an exercise rather than a definite prediction of how mussels will respond to future climate scenarios. Additional information/experimentation is strongly needed to validate the model settings, and to test the validity of the above mentioned outcome of the model.
The roles of carbonate, borate, and bicarbonate ions in affecting zooplankton hatching success under ocean acidification
Published 27 June 2023 Science ClosedTags: biogeochemistry, biological response, individualmodeling, modeling, multiple factors, physiology, reproduction, respiration, review, temperature, zooplankton
Two ocean acidification studies about egg hatching success (HS) in geographically important marine copepods, Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus, were reanalyzed with improved statistical procedures. The new results at low and moderate levels of seawater acidification showed no HS inhibition at normal habitat temperatures but statistically significant inhibition at warmer and colder temperatures. These HS results were compared with seawater carbonate system and borate concentrations from precise seawater measurements. The temperature dependent differences in HS could not be directly explained by changes in the seawater concentrations of either H+, bicarbonate (HCO3−), or CO2* (CO2* being the sum of unhydrated CO2 and H2CO3). In contrast, HS differences did match trends in seawater carbonate (CO32−) concentrations. A numerical model was developed which evaluates the concentrations of O2 or CO2*, HCO3−, and CO32− at the cellular level across an egg and embryo by considering both gas diffusion with the seawater and respiration by the embryo. Again, temperature-dependent trends in HS could not be explained changes in intracellular CO2* or HCO3− concentrations, but HS did trend with the changes in intracellular CO32− concentrations. Carbonate ions form strong coordination complexes with metals, so acidification-driven decreases in external seawater carbonate concentrations, which are amplified at warmer temperatures, could release injurious metals, thus driving the HS inhibition at warmer temperatures. Increases in cytoplasmic carbonate concentrations at warmer temperatures caused by seawater acidification could complex with biochemically-needed nutrient-type metals within the cells, also causing the increased HS inhibition at warmer temperatures. Furthermore, boron is essential in chemically signaling within and between cells. Seawater borate concentrations were closely correlated with HS inhibition via Michaelis-Menton equations, suggesting that acidification-driven decreases in seawater borate concentrations may also inhibit HS. Finally, the acidification-driven increases in CO2 diffusion into cells dramatically increased intracellular bicarbonate concentrations. At mild levels of seawater acidification, an organism might compensate by exporting bicarbonate from the cells to the haemolymph and then to the seawater. Although the energetic cost, as percentage of ATP production, might be high, increased respiration rates at warmer temperatures might better allow the organism to survive. However, as temperature is lowered, the cellular respiration rate declines more rapidly with respect to temperature than does the gas diffusion coefficient. Consequently, bicarbonate accumulation driven by inward CO2 diffusion might overwhelm the egg’s bicarbonate export capacity at colder temperatures, explaining the colder temperature HS inhibition.
Continue reading ‘The roles of carbonate, borate, and bicarbonate ions in affecting zooplankton hatching success under ocean acidification’Ocean afforestation’s effect on deep-sea biogeochemistry
Published 8 June 2023 Science ClosedTags: biogeochemistry, chemistry, individualmodeling, mitigation, modeling
If climate change is left unchecked it will lead to unprecedented deterioration of human health, economy and ecology. According to the IPCC, in order to avoid severe consequences, global warming will need to be limited to 1.5°C. However, the 1.5°C warming will be exceeded if current trends continue, which is why the need for Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) has become increasingly apparent. Ocean afforestation is currently one of the most promising CDR approaches, with the least competition for space, high carbon sequestration potential and high technical feasibility. Ocean afforestation approaches attempt to sequester carbon by sinking seaweed to deep-sea areas. This research looks at the consequences of the seaweed input to deep-seafloor. An early diagenetic model called RADI is used to predict the fate of the carbon and the effect on biogeochemistry. The model was adapted to include new sources of sedimentary organic matter, such as seaweed (Sargassum, Saccharina, Macrocystis) and Sugarcane bagasse, which are currently considered potential candidates for ocean afforestation purposes. Sargassum, an invasive free-floating species, has a large sequestration potential and is readily available. Sinking Sargassum in pulse, large amounts over short times, leads to high carbon retention in the sediment (up to 25% after two years) but leads to hypoxic conditions in the sediment for at least two years after addition. Continuous Sargassum sinking also leads to carbon sequestration but with a much less invasive impact on the seafloor. The carbon from continuous sinking does not remain in the sediment but is remineralized and flows out to the bottom water as inorganic carbon. Saccharina, an edible coastal species, could be used to grow on free floating organic buoy. Having the additional sequestration benefit from the carbon fixed in the organics. Carbon retention is highest for the pulse addition of this seaweed (33% after two years), compared to a continuous approach (30%) in which the seaweed is added over longer timescales in small amounts. Since this pulse input also leads to hypoxic conditions in the sediment, the continuous approach is more favourable for this approach. Macrocystis, the giant kelp known for forming ecosystems, is a fast-growing coastal species. This species requires harvesting and baling for use in carbon sequestration. Carbon retention is much higher for pulse addition (30%). Sugar cane bagasse is an agricultural residue with high carbon content. Sinking this residue to anoxic basins, has been proven to retain more carbon than in oxygenated bottom waters. This can be confirmed with the results which showed a carbon retention of up to 50% after two years. The effect on the benthic biome is also less intense since the low oxygen conditions already necessitate a specialized microbiome. Sugarcane bagasse is furthermore the only addition capable of increasing bottom water pH. Whereas all seaweed approaches had higher dissolved inorganic carbon than alkalinity flow to the bottom water, resulting in net acidification. This research provides a first look into the effects of ocean afforestation on deep sea biogeochemistry, and illustrates the importance of the composition, quantity and input duration of the seaweed used.
Continue reading ‘Ocean afforestation’s effect on deep-sea biogeochemistry’
