Posts Tagged 'globalmodeling'

Estimates of water-column nutrient concentrations and carbonate system parameters in the global ocean: a novel approach based on neural networks


A neural network-based method (CANYON: CArbonate system and Nutrients concentration from hYdrological properties and Oxygen using a Neural-network) was developed to estimate water-column (i.e., from surface to 8,000 m depth) biogeochemically relevant variables in the Global Ocean. These are the concentrations of three nutrients [nitrate (NO3−), phosphate (PO43−), and silicate (Si(OH)4)] and four carbonate system parameters [total alkalinity (AT), dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), pH (pHT), and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2)], which are estimated from concurrent in situ measurements of temperature, salinity, hydrostatic pressure, and oxygen (O2) together with sampling latitude, longitude, and date. Seven neural-networks were developed using the GLODAPv2 database, which is largely representative of the diversity of open-ocean conditions, hence making CANYON potentially applicable to most oceanic environments. For each variable, CANYON was trained using 80 % randomly chosen data from the whole database (after eight 10° × 10° zones removed providing an “independent data-set” for additional validation), the remaining 20 % data were used for the neural-network test of validation. Overall, CANYON retrieved the variables with high accuracies (RMSE): 1.04 μmol kg−1 (NO3−), 0.074 μmol kg−1 (PO43−), 3.2 μmol kg−1 (Si(OH)4), 0.020 (pHT), 9 μmol kg−1 (AT), 11 μmol kg−1 (CT) and 7.6 % (pCO2) (30 μatm at 400 μatm). This was confirmed for the eight independent zones not included in the training process. CANYON was also applied to the Hawaiian Time Series site to produce a 22 years long simulated time series for the above seven variables. Comparison of modeled and measured data was also very satisfactory (RMSE in the order of magnitude of RMSE from validation test). CANYON is thus a promising method to derive distributions of key biogeochemical variables. It could be used for a variety of global and regional applications ranging from data quality control to the production of datasets of variables required for initialization and validation of biogeochemical models that are difficult to obtain. In particular, combining the increased coverage of the global Biogeochemical-Argo program, where O2 is one of the core variables now very accurately measured, with the CANYON approach offers the fascinating perspective of obtaining large-scale estimates of key biogeochemical variables with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. The Matlab and R codes of the proposed algorithms are provided as Supplementary Material.

Continue reading ‘Estimates of water-column nutrient concentrations and carbonate system parameters in the global ocean: a novel approach based on neural networks’

Response of export production and dissolved oxygen concentrations in oxygen minimum zones to pCO2 and temperature stabilization scenarios in the biogeochemical model HAMOCC 2.0 (update)

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the ocean is an important component of marine biogeochemical cycles and will be greatly altered as climate change persists. In this study a global oceanic carbon cycle model (HAMOCC 2.0) is used to address how mechanisms of oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) expansion respond to changes in CO2 radiative forcing. Atmospheric pCO2 is increased at a rate of 1 % annually and the model is stabilized at 2 ×, 4 ×, 6  ×, and 8 × preindustrial pCO2 levels. With an increase in CO2 radiative forcing, the OMZ in the Pacific Ocean is controlled largely by changes in particulate organic carbon (POC) export, resulting in increased remineralization and thus expanding the OMZs within the tropical Pacific Ocean. A potential decline in primary producers in the future as a result of environmental stress due to ocean warming and acidification could lead to a substantial reduction in POC export production, vertical POC flux, and thus increased DO concentration particularly in the Pacific Ocean at a depth of 600–800 m. In contrast, the vertical expansion of the OMZs within the Atlantic is linked to increases POC flux as well as changes in oxygen solubility with increasing seawater temperature. Changes in total organic carbon and increase sea surface temperature (SST) also lead to the formation of a new OMZ in the western subtropical Pacific Ocean. The development of the new OMZ results in dissolved oxygen concentration of  ≤  50 µmol kg−1 throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean at 4 times preindustrial pCO2. Total ocean volume with dissolved oxygen concentrations of  ≤  50 µmol kg−1 increases by 2.4, 5.0, and 10.5 % for the 2 ×, 4 ×, and 8 × CO2 simulations, respectively.

Continue reading ‘Response of export production and dissolved oxygen concentrations in oxygen minimum zones to pCO2 and temperature stabilization scenarios in the biogeochemical model HAMOCC 2.0 (update)’

Timing of global regression and microbial bloom linked with the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction: implications for driving mechanisms

New high-resolution U-Pb dates indicate a duration of 89 ± 38 kyr for the Permian hiatus and of 14 ± 57 kyr for the overlying Triassic microbial limestone in shallow water settings of the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China. The age and duration of the hiatus coincides with the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) and the extinction interval in the Meishan Global Stratotype Section and Point, and strongly supports a glacio-eustatic regression, which best explains the genesis of the worldwide hiatus straddling the PTB in shallow water records. In adjacent deep marine troughs, rates of sediment accumulation display a six-fold decrease across the PTB compatible with a dryer and cooler climate as indicated by terrestrial plants. Our model of the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction (PTBME) hinges on the synchronicity of the hiatus with the onset of the Siberian Traps volcanism. This early eruptive phase released sulfur-rich volatiles into the stratosphere, thus simultaneously eliciting a short-lived ice age responsible for the global regression and a brief but intense acidification. Abrupt cooling, shrunk habitats on shelves and acidification may all have synergistically triggered the PTBME. Subsequently, the build-up of volcanic CO2 induced a transient cool climate whose early phase saw the deposition of the microbial limestone.

Continue reading ‘Timing of global regression and microbial bloom linked with the Permian-Triassic boundary mass extinction: implications for driving mechanisms’

The geologic history of seawater pH

Although pH is a fundamental property of Earth’s oceans, critical to our understanding of seawater biogeochemistry, its long-timescale geologic history is poorly constrained. We constrain seawater pH through time by accounting for the cycles of the major components of seawater. We infer an increase from early Archean pH values between ~6.5 and 7.0 and Phanerozoic values between ~7.5 and 9.0, which was caused by a gradual decrease in atmospheric pCO2 in response to solar brightening, alongside a decrease in hydrothermal exchange between seawater and the ocean crust. A lower pH in Earth’s early oceans likely affected the kinetics of chemical reactions associated with the origin of life, the energetics of early metabolisms, and climate through the partitioning of CO2 between the oceans and atmosphere.

Continue reading ‘The geologic history of seawater pH’

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Continue reading ‘Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems’

Amplification of global warming through pH-dependence of DMS-production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model

We estimate the additional transient surface warming ΔTs caused by a potential reduction of marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production due to ocean-acidification under the high emission scenario RCP8.5 until the year 2200. Since we use a fully coupled Earth system model, our results include a range of feedbacks, such as the response of marine DMS-production to the additional changes in temperature and sea-ice cover. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of a previous study that employed an off-line model set-up. Assuming a medium (strong) sensitivity of DMS-production to pH, we find an additional transient global warming of 0.30 K (0.47 K) towards the end of the 22nd century when DMS-emission are reduced by 7.3 Tg S yr−1 or 31 % (11.5 Tg S yr−1 or 48 %). The main mechanism behind the additional warming is a reduction of cloud albedo, but a change in short-wave radiative fluxes under clear-sky conditions due to reduced sulfate aerosol load also contributes significantly. We find an approximately linear relationship between reduction of DMS-emissions and changes in top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes as well as changes in surface temperature for the range of DMS-emissions considered here. For example, global average Ts changes by −0.041 K per 1 Tg S yr−1 change in sea-air DMS-fluxes. The additional warming in our model has a pronounced asymmetry between northern and southern high latitudes. It is largest over the Antarctic continent, where the additional temperature increase of 0.56 K (0.89 K) is almost twice the global average. We find that feedbacks are small on the global scale due to opposing regional contributions. The most pronounced feedback is found for the Southern Ocean, where we estimate that the additional climate change enhances sea-air DMS-fluxes by about 9 % (15 %), which counteracts the reduction due to ocean acidification.

Continue reading ‘Amplification of global warming through pH-dependence of DMS-production simulated with a fully coupled Earth system model’

Risk and resilience: variations in magnesium in echinoid skeletal calcite

Echinoids have high-magnesium (Mg) calcite endoskeletons that may be vulnerable to CO2-driven ocean acidification. Amalgamated data for echinoid species from a range of environments and life-history stages allowed characterization of the factors controlling Mg content in their skeletons. Published measurements of Mg in calcite (N = 261), supplemented by new X-ray diffractometry data (N = 382), produced a database including 8 orders, 23 families and 73 species (~7% of the ~1000 known extant species), spanning latitudes 77°S to 72°N, and including 9 skeletal elements or life stages. Mean (± SD) skeletal carbonate mineralogy in the Echinoidea is 7.5 ± 3.23 wt% MgCO3 in calcite (range: 1.5-16.4 wt%, N = 643). Variation in Mg within individuals was small (SD = 0.4-0.9 wt% MgCO3). We found significant differences among skeletal elements: jaw demi-pyramids were the highest in Mg, whereas tests, teeth and spines were intermediate in Mg, but generally higher than larvae. Higher taxa have consistent mineralogical patterns, with orders in particular showing Mg related to first appearance in the fossil record. Latitude was a good proxy for sea-surface temperature (SST), although incorporating SST where available produced a slightly better model. Mg content varied with latitude; higher Mg content in warmer waters may reflect increased metabolic and growth rates. Although the skeletons of some adult urchins may be partially resistant to ocean acidification, larvae and some species may prove to be vulnerable to lowered pH, resulting in ecosystem changes in coastal marine environments.

Continue reading ‘Risk and resilience: variations in magnesium in echinoid skeletal calcite’

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Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

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