Kelp forests are threatened by ocean warming, yet effects of co-occurring drivers such as CO2 are rarely considered when predicting their performance in the future. In Australia, the kelp Ecklonia radiata forms extensive forests across seawater temperatures of approximately 7–26°C. Cool-edge populations are typically considered more thermally tolerant than their warm-edge counterparts but this ignores the possibility of local adaptation. Moreover, it is unknown whether elevated CO2 can mitigate negative effects of warming. To identify whether elevated CO2 could improve thermal performance of a cool-edge population of E. radiata, we constructed thermal performance curves for growth and photosynthesis, under both current and elevated CO2 (approx. 400 and 1000 µatm). We then modelled annual performance under warming scenarios to highlight thermal susceptibility. Elevated CO2 had minimal effect on growth but increased photosynthesis around the thermal optimum. Thermal optima were approximately 16°C for growth and approximately 18°C for photosynthesis, and modelled performance indicated cool-edge populations may be vulnerable in the future. Our findings demonstrate that elevated CO2 is unlikely to offset negative effects of ocean warming on the kelp E. radiata and highlight the potential susceptibility of cool-edge populations to ocean warming.
Continue reading ‘Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification’Posts Tagged 'modeling'
Cool-edge populations of the kelp Ecklonia radiata under global ocean change scenarios: strong sensitivity to ocean warming but little effect of ocean acidification
Published 9 February 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, individualmodeling, laboratory, modeling, morphology, multiple factors, phanerogams, photosynthesis, physiology, South Pacific, temperature
Modeled foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in benthic foraminifera helps reconstruct calcifying fluid composition
Published 5 February 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, calcification, individualmodeling, modeling, physiology, protists
Foraminifera are unicellular organisms that inhabit the oceans. They play an important role in the global carbon cycle and record valuable paleoclimate information through the uptake of trace elements such as strontium into their calcitic shells. Understanding how foraminifera control their internal fluid composition to make calcite is important for predicting their response to ocean acidification and for reliably interpreting the chemical and isotopic compositions of their shells. Here, we model foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in the benthic foraminifera Cibicides wuellerstorfi and Cibicidoides mundulus based on insights from inorganic calcite experiments. The numerical model reconciles inter-ocean and taxonomic differences in benthic foraminifer strontium partitioning relationships and enables us to reconstruct the composition of the calcifying fluid. We find that strontium partitioning and mineral growth rates of foraminiferal calcite are not strongly affected by changes in external seawater pH (within 7.8–8.1) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC, within 2100–2300 μmol/kg) due to a regulated calcite saturation state at the site of shell formation.
Continue reading ‘Modeled foraminiferal calcification and strontium partitioning in benthic foraminifera helps reconstruct calcifying fluid composition’Changes in global DMS production driven by increased CO2 levels and its impact on radiative forcing
Published 5 February 2024 Science ClosedTags: chemistry, globalmodeling, modeling
Our study highlights the importance of understanding the future changes in dimethyl-sulfide (DMS), the largest natural sulfur source, in the context of ocean acidification driven by elevated CO2 levels. We found a strong negative correlation (R2 = 0.89) between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and sea-surface DMS concentrations based on global observational datasets, not adequately captured by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models (ESMs). Using this relationship, we refined projections of future sea-surface DMS concentrations in CMIP6 ESMs. Our study reveals a decrease in global sea-surface DMS concentrations and the associated aerosol radiative forcing compared to ESMs’ results. These reductions represent ~9.5% and 11.1% of the radiative forcings resulting from aerosol radiation and cloud interactions in 2100 reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Thus, future climate projections should account for the climate implications of changes in DMS production due to ocean acidification.
Continue reading ‘Changes in global DMS production driven by increased CO2 levels and its impact on radiative forcing’Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change
Published 31 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: biological response, BRcommunity, community composition, fish, modeling, North Pacific, otherprocess, performance, regionalmodeling
Highlights
- The suitability of fish habitat is threatened by falling pH, especially in spring.
- Seasonality provides resilience against climate change for estuarine fish and assemblages.
- Centroids respond by shifting northeast in spring and southeast in autumn.
- Support for estuary ecosystem management under climate change is offered.
Abstract
To date, the intricacies and efficacy of how periodic seasonal environmental fluctuations affect fish populations in biogeography in the context of profound climate change remain to be elucidated. Collected monitoring data on fish resources in the temperate estuary provide an excellent opportunity to assess the effects of seasonal environmental fluctuations on populations and functional assemblages under climate change. We first developed a framework for predicting habitat suitability under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for 12 fish populations in the Yangtze estuary by examining the seasonal environmental affinities of temperate estuarine fishes. We then summarized the multidimensional habitat suitability responses (HSRs) of populations and functional assemblages and discussed the possible drivers and mechanisms underlying these changes. The results suggest that the acidity of the Yangtze estuary may decline in the future as the climate warms, endangering the ecosystem that many fish species depend on. Prospective climate change may have an impact on fish population HSRs through redistribution, area changes, and centroid migration of suitable habitats; nevertheless, affinity for environmental factors may be limited to distinguishing patterns of population response in the spring. Fish (5 populations) and functional assemblages (11 assemblages) may exhibit robust adaptations or non-adaptations to climate change when seasons change, given their suitable habitat area. Furthermore, projections indicate that the majority of fish habitat centroids exhibit seasonal responses, migrating northeast in the spring and southeast in the autumn. By decentralizing climate risk to seasonal scales, seasonal resilience in the multidimensional HSRs of several fish populations (5/12) and their functional assemblages (11/16) is revealed for the first time. Efforts to mitigate climate risks and safeguard resources should take these seasonal forecasts and indicative information into account.
Continue reading ‘Seasonal resilience of temperate estuarine fish in response to climate change’Acidification of the global surface ocean: what we have learned from observations
Published 25 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: chemistry, globalmodeling, modeling, review
The chemistry of the global ocean is rapidly changing due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2). This process, commonly referred to as ocean acidification (OA), is negatively impacting many marine species and ecosystems. In this study, we combine observations in the global surface ocean collected by NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory scientists and their national and international colleagues over the last several decades, along with model outputs, to provide a high-resolution, regionally varying view of global surface ocean carbon dioxide fugacity, carbonate ion content, total hydrogen ion content, pH on total scale, and aragonite and calcite saturation states on selected time intervals from 1961 to 2020. We discuss the major roles played by air-sea anthropogenic CO2 uptake, warming, local upwelling processes, and declining buffer capacity in controlling the spatial and temporal variability of these parameters. These changes are occurring rapidly in regions that would normally be considered OA refugia, thus threatening the protection that these regions provide for stocks of sensitive species and increasing the potential for expanding biological impacts.
Continue reading ‘Acidification of the global surface ocean: what we have learned from observations’Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas
Published 25 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: Antarctic, chemistry, modeling, policy, regionalmodeling
Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.
Continue reading ‘Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas’Atmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling
Published 22 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: biogeochemistry, chemistry, fisheries, globalmodeling, modeling
Trawling the seafloor can disturb carbon that took millennia to accumulate, but the fate of that carbon and its impact on climate and ecosystems remains unknown. Using satellite-inferred fishing events and carbon cycle models, we find that 55-60% of trawling-induced aqueous CO2 is released to the atmosphere over 7-9 years. Using recent estimates of bottom trawling’s impact on sedimentary carbon, we found that between 1996-2020 trawling could have released, at the global scale, up to 0.34-0.37 Pg CO2 yr-1 to the atmosphere, and locally altered water pH in some semi-enclosed and heavy trawled seas. Our results suggest that the management of bottom-trawling efforts could be an important climate solution.
Continue reading ‘Atmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling’Sometimes (often?) responses to multiple stressors can be predicted from single-stressor effects: a case study using an agent-based population model of croaker in the Gulf of Mexico
Published 18 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, BRcommunity, communitymodeling, fish, individualmodeling, modeling, morphology, mortality, multiple factors, North Atlantic, otherprocess, oxygen, performance, reproduction, temperature
Abstract
Objective
Rapid changes in the world’s oceans make assessment of fish population responses to multiple stressors, especially on scales relevant to management, increasingly important. I used an existing agent-based, spatially explicit model of Atlantic Croaker Micropogonias undulatus in the northern Gulf of Mexico to examine how temperature, hypoxia, and ocean acidification, singly and in combinations, affect long-term population dynamics.
Methods
I performed a factorial simulation experiment with each stressor at three levels and analyzed various treatment combinations to assess the additivity and multiplicity of interactions. The response variables were long-term equilibrium (final year) values of spawning stock biomass (SSB), recruitment, weight at age, and two measures of stock productivity (recruits per SSB and maximum recruitment) derived from the spawner–recruit relationship fitted to model output. I used the single-stressor effects from the experiment to predict how the response variables would change when all three stressors were changed. Single-stressor effects were combined as the sum of the fractional changes (additive scale) and the product of ratios of changes (multiplicative scale) and compared to the responses in simulations with all stressors imposed.
Result
Analyzing the factorial design for two-way and three-way interactions showed that there were many interactions on the additive scale but very few on the multiplicative scale. Thus, the responses to multiple stressors were well predicted from single stressor effects when combined as multiplicative effects.
Conclusion
I discuss how the lack of strong interactions could be due to model assumptions, the structure of the model, or oversimplified representation of stressor effects. Alternatively, the model and analysis may be sufficiently realistic and weak interactions on the multiplicative scale may be common. This would reduce a complicated multi-factor situation to a series of more tractable single-factor effects. A critical next step is to determine how we can a priori identify situations of low interactions (i.e., predictable from single-stressor effects) without having to already know the multi-stressor response.
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Continue reading ‘Sometimes (often?) responses to multiple stressors can be predicted from single-stressor effects: a case study using an agent-based population model of croaker in the Gulf of Mexico’A global biogeography analysis reveals vulnerability of surface marine zooplankton to anthropogenic stressors
Published 16 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, globalmodeling, modeling, otherprocess, performance, zooplankton
Highlights
- Multiple stress factors for zooplankton overlap in the surface ocean
- Stress brought by surface warming and acidification strongly increased in ∼50 years
- More research on anthropogenic impacts on zooplankton is urgently needed
…
Summary
Anthropogenic impacts on zooplankton at the surface ocean pose an urgent challenge because these keystone species are crucial for oceanic processes. Some anthropogenic stressors for zooplankton have been identified, such as acidification due to climate change, but a multitude of other stressors exist, and the combination of these may lead to unknown impacts. We utilized global biogeochemical models to assess the temporal and spatial distribution of zooplankton stress factors, including changes in sea surface temperature, acidification, prey quantity, food quality, and contaminants. We highlighted regional hotspots where multiple stress factors overlap and revealed that most stress factors are increasing. By linking stress factors to zooplankton distribution, we introduced a zooplankton vulnerability index. We found that the zooplankton vulnerability index has doubled in 50 years, and this suggests that zooplankton populations are increasingly at risk from anthropogenic stressors. Further research is needed to develop strategies for mitigating the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on zooplankton.
Continue reading ‘A global biogeography analysis reveals vulnerability of surface marine zooplankton to anthropogenic stressors’Functional changes across marine habitats due to ocean acidification
Published 15 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, BRcommunity, calcification, chemistry, community composition, communitymodeling, field, growth, Mediterranean, modeling, otherprocess, performance, photosynthesis, reproduction, vents
Global environmental change drives diversity loss and shifts in community structure. A key challenge is to better understand the impacts on ecosystem function and to connect species and trait diversity of assemblages with ecosystem properties that are in turn linked to ecosystem functioning. Here we quantify shifts in species composition and trait diversity associated with ocean acidification (OA) by using field measurements at marine CO2 vent systems spanning four reef habitats across different depths in a temperate coastal ecosystem. We find that both species and trait diversity decreased, and that ecosystem properties (understood as the interplay between species, traits, and ecosystem function) shifted with acidification. Furthermore, shifts in trait categories such as autotrophs, filter feeders, herbivores, and habitat-forming species were habitat-specific, indicating that OA may produce divergent responses across habitats and depths. Combined, these findings reveal the importance of connecting species and trait diversity of marine benthic habitats with key ecosystem properties to anticipate the impacts of global environmental change. Our results also generate new insights on the predicted general and habitat-specific ecological consequences of OA.
Continue reading ‘Functional changes across marine habitats due to ocean acidification’Extinction risk of the world’s chondrichthyan fishes: a global assessment of the interplay between anthropogenic factors and marine protected areas
Published 15 January 2024 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biological response, community composition, fish, fisheries, globalmodeling, modeling, otherprocess, socio-economy
Patterns of Chondrichthyes species richness (CSR) are widely recognized as being influenced by environmental conditions. However, untangling the intricate interplay between anthropogenic impacts and spatial patterns of CSR remains a challenging endeavor. In this study, we evaluate the influence of thirteen human-related variables, encompassing human-induced effects and marine protected areas, on global CSR. Additionally, we explore their effects on threatened species, those declining, those utilized and traded, and those facing direct human-induced threats. Utilizing simple, multiple, and simultaneous regression models, we comprehensively investigated the relationship between human-altered variables and marine protected areas on CSR across oceanic regions. Our findings distinctly reveal a compelling convergence of human-related variables with CSR. Notably, factors such as global ocean acidification, demersal destructive practices (e.g., bottom trawling), pelagic low bycatch techniques (e.g., hook and line), and demersal non-destructive high bycatch methods (e.g., pots, traps) exhibit robust negative associations. Intriguingly, a positive association emerges with the presence of marine protected areas. Furthermore, our study underscores the profound impact of diverse human activities on CSR, significantly heightening their vulnerability to threats and imminent extinction risks. These results accentuate the critical significance of conservation strategies centered on marine protected areas, maximizing the optimized preservation of Chondrichthyes across marine ecosystems. In light of these insights, we stress the paramount role of planners and managers in mitigating direct human impacts on marine ecosystems, which is crucial for ensuring the enduring presence of Chondrichthyes across the oceans.
Continue reading ‘Extinction risk of the world’s chondrichthyan fishes: a global assessment of the interplay between anthropogenic factors and marine protected areas’Spatiotemporal reconstruction of global ocean surface pCO2 based on optimized random forest
Published 27 December 2023 Science ClosedTags: chemistry, field, modeling, North Pacific, regionalmodeling
Highlights
- Conduct comprehensive research on the global ocean surface pCO2 from a holistic perspective
- Analyze ocean surface pCO2 and twelve factors of the ocean using a geographical detector
- Compare multiple machine learning models of pCO2, including MLR, CNN, XGBoost, SVM, RF, and ORF
- Reconstruct the resolution of ocean surface pCO2 to 0.25° × 0.25°
- The ORF model improves the reconstruction accuracy of ocean surface pCO2.
Abstract
The partial pressure of ocean surface CO2 (pCO2) plays an important role in quantifying the carbon budget and assessing ocean acidification. For such a vast and complex ocean system as the global ocean, most current research practices tend to study the ocean into regions. In order to reveal the overall characteristics of the global ocean and avoid mutual influence between zones, a holistic research method was used to detect the correlation of twelve predictive factors, including chlorophyll concentration (Chlor_a), diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (Kd_490), density ocean mixed layer thickness (Mlotst), eastward velocity (East), northward velocity (North), salinity (Sal), temperature (Temp), dissolved iron (Fe), dissolved silicate (Si), nitrate (NO3), potential of hydrogen (pH), phosphate (PO4), at the global ocean scale. Based on measured data from the Global Surface pCO2 (LDEO) database, combined with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ocean Color satellite data and Copernicus Ocean reanalysis data, an improved optimized random forest (ORF) method is proposed for the overall reconstruction of global ocean surface pCO2, and compared with various machine learning methods. The results indicate that the ORF method is the most accurate in overall modeling at the global ocean scale (mean absolute error of 6.27μatm, root mean square error of 15.34μatm, R2 of 0.92). Based on independent observations from the LDEO dataset and time series observation stations, the ORF model was further validated, and the global ocean surface pCO2 distribution map of 0.25° × 0.25° for 2010 to 2019 was reconstructed, which is of significance for the global ocean carbon cycle and carbon assessment.
Continue reading ‘Spatiotemporal reconstruction of global ocean surface pCO2 based on optimized random forest’Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: a case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia
Published 15 December 2023 Science ClosedTags: biological response, communitymodeling, corals, modeling, South Pacific
An understanding of the combined effects of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, such as chemical exposures, is essential for improving ecological risk assessments of vulnerable ecosystems. In the Great Barrier Reef, coral reefs are under increasingly severe duress from increasing ocean temperatures, acidification and cyclone intensities associated with climate change. In addition to these stressors, inshore reef systems, such as the Mackay Whitsunday coastal zone are being impacted by other anthropogenic stressors, including chemical, nutrient and sediment exposures related to more intense rainfall events that increase catchment runoff of contaminated waters. To illustrate an approach for incorporating climate change into ecological risk assessment frameworks, we developed an adverse outcome pathway network to conceptually delineate effects of climate variables and PSII herbicide (diuron) exposures on scleractinian corals. This informed the development of a Bayesian network to quantitatively compare the effects of historical (1975-2005) and future projected climate on inshore hard coral bleaching, mortality, and cover. This Bayesian network demonstrated how risk may be predicted for multiple physical and biological stressors including temperature, ocean acidification, cyclones, sediments, macroalgae competition, and crown of thorns starfish predation, as well as chemical stressors such as nitrogen and herbicides. Climate scenarios included an ensemble of 16 downscaled models encompassing current and future conditions based on multiple emission scenarios for two thirty-year periods. It was found that both climate-related and catchment-related stressors pose a risk to these inshore reef systems, with projected increases in coral bleaching and coral mortality under all future climate scenarios. This modelling exercise can support the identification of risk drivers for the prioritisation of management interventions to build future resilient reefs.
Continue reading ‘Evaluating the effects of climate change and chemical, physical and biological stressors on nearshore coral reefs: a case study in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia’Monitoring, reporting, and verification for ocean alkalinity enhancement
Published 11 December 2023 Science ClosedTags: methods, mitigation, modeling
Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) refers to the multistep process of monitoring the amount of greenhouse gas removed by a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activity and reporting the results of the monitoring to a third party. The third party then verifies the reporting of the results. While MRV is usually conducted in pursuit of certification in a voluntary or regulated CDR market, this chapter focuses on key recommendations for MRV relevant to ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) research. Early stage MRV for OAE research may become the foundation on which markets are built. Therefore, such research carries a special obligation toward comprehensiveness, reproducibility, and transparency. Observational approaches during field trials should aim to quantify the delivery of alkalinity to seawater and monitor for secondary precipitation, biotic calcification, and other ecosystem changes that can feed back on sources or sinks of greenhouse gases where alkalinity is measurably elevated. Observations of resultant shifts in the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and ocean pH can help determine the efficacy of OAE and are amenable to autonomous monitoring. However, because the ocean is turbulent and energetic and CO2 equilibration between the ocean and atmosphere can take several months or longer, added alkalinity will be diluted to perturbation levels undetectable above background variability on timescales relevant for MRV. Therefore, comprehensive quantification of carbon removal via OAE will be impossible through observational methods alone, and numerical simulations will be required. The development of fit-for-purpose models, carefully validated against observational data, will be a critical part of MRV for OAE.
Continue reading ‘Monitoring, reporting, and verification for ocean alkalinity enhancement’Spatiotemporal variation of China’s mariculture potential under climate change
Published 8 December 2023 Science ClosedTags: biological response, fish, fisheries, growth, modeling, mollusks, morphology, North Pacific, regionalmodeling
Being the world’s largest seafood producer, China’s mariculture is critical for ensuring national and global food security, yet greatly threatened by climate change. It is essential to assess the potential opportunities and challenges for Chinese mariculture in light of climate change. Although the impact of climate change on mariculture potential at a global scale has been investigated, studies at sub-national scales of China are scarce, particularly those that take into account multiple environmental stressors and species. Here, we applied a combination of physical and biological models to quantify the spatiotemporal variation in the mariculture potential of seven finfish species and seven bivalve species cultured in China under the emission scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 in the twentyfirst century. Our results demonstrated that the spatiotemporal trends in culture potential was species-specific. Finfish was less affected than bivalves. Four finfish species and seven bivalve species showed a continuously declining trend in culture potential and most species showed a northward shift of the centroid with high growth potential under SSP5-8.5. Under the scenario SSP1-2.6, the culture potential of finfish species mostly showed a stable or increasing trend, while that of bivalve species declined in the mid-twentyfirst century and partially recovered in the late twentyfirst century. Cold-water species exhibited a greater loss of culture potential than warm-water and eurythermal species. In the SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, the cold-water species Oncorhynchus mykiss and Patinopecten yessoensis experienced the most significant loss in culture potential among finfish and bivalve species. Meanwhile, the culture potential for two out of the four warm-water species, specifically Epinephelus spp. and Sciaenops ocellatus, saw an increase. The culture potential for eight eurythermal species remained stable or declined. This study helps to identify mariculture potential for different species and sea areas and can inform the development of climate-resilient mariculture in China.
Continue reading ‘Spatiotemporal variation of China’s mariculture potential under climate change’Riverine dissolved inorganic carbon export from the Southeast Alaskan Drainage Basin with implications for coastal ocean processes
Published 5 December 2023 Science ClosedTags: chemistry, field, modeling, North Pacific, regionalmodeling
Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) represents an important but poorly constrained form of lateral carbon flux to the oceans. With high precipitation rates, large glaciers, and dense temperate rainforest, Southeast Alaska plays a critical role in the transport of carbon to the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Previous estimates of DIC flux across the Southeast Alaska Drainage Basin (SEAKDB) are poorly constrained in space and time. Our goal was to incorporate recent measurements of DIC concentrations with previous measurements from the U.S. Geological Survey in order to model the spatial and temporal patterns of riverine DIC transport from SEAK to the GOA. We aggregated DIC concentration measurements from 1957 to 2020 and associated measurements of mean daily discharge. We then constructed load estimation models to generate concentration predictions across 24 watersheds. By spatially matching measurements of DIC with SEAKDB watersheds, we extrapolated concentration predictions across 2,455 watersheds encompassing approximately 190,000 km2. Models were aggregated according to two factors, the presence of karst and the discharge regime. Finally, monthly flux predictions were generated for each watershed using predicted concentrations and runoff estimates from the Distributed Climate Water Balance Model. Mean annual DIC flux from the SEAKDB was 2.36 Tg C with an average yield of 12.52 g C m−2. Both karst presence and flow regimes modified DIC flux and speciation across coastal marine areas. The high resolution of DIC flux estimates will provide useful inputs for describing seasonal C dynamics, and further refines our understanding of C budgets in the Pacific temperate rainforest and the surrounding marine environment.
Continue reading ‘Riverine dissolved inorganic carbon export from the Southeast Alaskan Drainage Basin with implications for coastal ocean processes’Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming: a case study in the Hinase area, Okayama Prefecture, and Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan (Update)
Published 24 November 2023 Science ClosedTags: biological response, chemistry, field, fisheries, modeling, mollusks, morphology, multiple factors, North Pacific, oxygen, regionalmodeling, reproduction, temperature
Coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation are progressing primarily due to the increase in anthropogenic CO2. Coastal acidification has been reported to have effects that are anticipated to become more severe as acidification progresses, including inhibiting the formation of shells of calcifying organisms such as shellfish, which include Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas), one of the most important aquaculture resources in Japan. Moreover, there is concern regarding the combined impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oysters. However, spatiotemporal variations in acidification and deoxygenation indicators such as pH, the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), and dissolved oxygen have not been observed and projected in oceanic Pacific oyster farms in Japan. To assess the present impacts and project future impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oysters, we performed continuous in situ monitoring, numerical modeling, and microscopic examination of Pacific oyster larvae in the Hinase area of Okayama Prefecture and Shizugawa Bay in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, both of which are famous for their Pacific oyster farms. Our monitoring results first found Ωarag values lower than the critical level of acidification for Pacific oyster larvae in Hinase, although no impact of acidification on larvae was identified by microscopic examination. Our modeling results suggest that Pacific oyster larvae are anticipated to be affected more seriously by the combined impacts of coastal warming and acidification, with lower pH and Ωarag values and a prolonged spawning period, which may shorten the oyster shipping period and lower the quality of oysters.
Continue reading ‘Assessing impacts of coastal warming, acidification, and deoxygenation on Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) farming: a case study in the Hinase area, Okayama Prefecture, and Shizugawa Bay, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan (Update)’The appendicularian Oikopleura dioica can enhance carbon export in a high CO2 ocean
Published 22 November 2023 Science ClosedTags: abundance, biogeochemistry, biological response, BRcommunity, chemistry, communitymodeling, field, mesocosms, modeling, morphology, North Atlantic, otherprocess, photosynthesis, phytoplankton, reproduction, zooplankton
Gelatinous zooplankton are increasingly recognized to play a key role in the ocean’s biological carbon pump. Appendicularians, a class of pelagic tunicates, are among the most abundant gelatinous plankton in the ocean, but it is an open question how their contribution to carbon export might change in the future. Here, we conducted an experiment with large volume in situ mesocosms (~55–60 m3 and 21 m depth) to investigate how ocean acidification (OA) extreme events affect food web structure and carbon export in a natural plankton community, particularly focusing on the keystone species Oikopleura dioica, a globally abundant appendicularian. We found a profound influence of O. dioica on vertical carbon fluxes, particularly during a short but intense bloom period in the high CO2 treatment, during which carbon export was 42%–64% higher than under ambient conditions. This elevated flux was mostly driven by an almost twofold increase in O. dioica biomass under high CO2. This rapid population increase was linked to enhanced fecundity (+20%) that likely resulted from physiological benefits of low pH conditions. The resulting competitive advantage of O. dioica resulted in enhanced grazing on phytoplankton and transfer of this consumed biomass into sinking particles. Using a simple carbon flux model for O. dioica, we estimate that high CO2 doubled the carbon flux of discarded mucous houses and fecal pellets, accounting for up to 39% of total carbon export from the ecosystem during the bloom. Considering the wide geographic distribution of O. dioica, our findings suggest that appendicularians may become an increasingly important vector of carbon export with ongoing OA.
Continue reading ‘The appendicularian Oikopleura dioica can enhance carbon export in a high CO2 ocean’Anthropogenic CO2, air-sea CO2 fluxes and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51°S-68°E)
Published 20 November 2023 Science ClosedTags: biogeochemistry, chemistry, field, Indian, modeling, regionalmodeling
The temporal variation of the carbonate system, air-sea CO2 fluxes and pH is analyzed in the Southern Indian Ocean, south of the Polar Front, based on in-situ data obtained from 1985 to 2021 at a fixed station (50°40’S–68°25’E) and results from a neural network model that reconstructs the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) and fluxes at monthly scale. Anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) was estimated in the water column and detected down to the bottom (1600 m) in 1985 resulting in an aragonite saturation horizon at 600 m that migrated up to 400 m in 2021 due to the accumulation of Cant. In subsurface, the trend of Cant is estimated at +0.53 (±0.01) µmol.kg-1.yr-1 with a detectable increase in recent years. At the surface during austral winter the oceanic fCO2 increased at a rate close or slightly lower than in the atmosphere. To the contrary, in summer, we observed contrasting fCO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) trends depending on the decade and emphasizing the role of biological drivers on air-sea CO2 fluxes and pH inter-annual variability. The region moved from an annual source of 0.8 molC.m-2.yr-1 in 1985 to a sink of -0.5 molC.m-2.yr-1 in 2020. In 1985–2020, the annual pH trend in surface of -0.0165 (± 0.0040).decade-1 was mainly controlled by anthropogenic CO2 but the trend was modulated by natural processes. Using historical data from November 1962 we estimated the long-term trend for fCO2, CT and pH confirming that the progressive acidification was driven by atmospheric CO2 increase. In 59 years this leads to a diminution of 11 % for both aragonite and calcite saturation state. As atmospheric CO2 will desperately continue rising in the future, the pH and carbonate saturation state will decrease at a faster rate than observed in recent years. A projection of future CT concentrations for a high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) indicates that the surface pH in 2100 would decrease to 7.32 in winter. This is up to -0.86 lower than pre-industrial pH and -0.71 lower than pH observed in 2020. The aragonite under-saturation in surface waters would be reached as soon as 2050 (scenario SSP5-8.5) and 20 years later for a stabilization scenario (SSP2-4.5) with potential impacts on phytoplankton species and higher trophic levels in the rich ecosystems of the Kerguelen Island area.
Continue reading ‘Anthropogenic CO2, air-sea CO2 fluxes and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51°S-68°E)’
