Coastal upwelling ecosystems around the world are defined by wind-generated currents that bring deep, nutrient-rich waters to the surface ocean where they fuel exceptionally productive food webs. These ecosystems are also now understood to share a common vulnerability to ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH). In the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), reports of marine life die-offs by fishers and resource managers triggered research that led to an understanding of the risks posed by hypoxia. Similarly, unprecedented losses from shellfish hatcheries led to novel insights into the coastal expression of ocean acidification. Partnership for Interdisciplinary Studies of Coastal Oceans (PISCO) scientists and other researchers in the CCLME responded to the rise of OAH with new ocean observations and experiments. This work revealed insights into the expression of OAH as coupled environmental stressors, their temporal and spatial variability, and impacts on species, ecological communities, and fisheries. Sustained investigations also deepened the understanding of connections between climate change and the intensification of hypoxia, and are beginning to inform the ecological and eco-evolutionary processes that can structure responses to the progression of ocean acidification and other pathways of global change. Moreover, because the severity of the die-offs and hatchery failures and the subsequent scientific understanding combined to galvanize public attention, these scientific advances have fostered policy advances. Across the CCLME, policymakers are now translating the evolving scientific understanding of OAH into new management actions.
Posts Tagged 'socio-economy'
The dynamics and impact of ocean acidification and hypoxia: insights from sustained investigations in the Northern California Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Published 24 September 2019 Science ClosedTags: fisheries, North Pacific, oxygen, policy, review, socio-economy
Building tools to model the effects of ocean acidification and how it scales from physiology to fisheries
Published 23 September 2019 Science ClosedTags: communitymodeling, fisheries, modeling, socio-economy
Ocean acidification is a direct consequence of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by anthropogenic fossil fuel burning and is one of multiple climate-related stressors in marine environments. Understanding of how these stressors will interact to affect marine life and fisheries is limited. In this thesis, I used integrated modelling approaches to scale the effects of biophysical drivers from physiology to population dynamics and fisheries. I focused on ocean acidification and how it interacts with other main drivers such as temperature and oxygen. I used a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model (DBEM) to project the effects of global environmental change on fisheries under two contrasting scenarios of climate change—the low optimistic climate change scenario in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5˚ C, and the high climate change scenario on par with our current ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory. First, I developed an ex-vessel fish price database and explored methods using various ocean acidification assumptions. Ex-vessel fish prices are essential for fisheries economic analyses, while model development of ocean acidification effects are important to better understand the uncertainties surrounding acidification and the sensitivity of the model to these uncertainties. These tools and methods were then used to project the impacts of ocean acidification, in the context of climate change, on global invertebrate fisheries—the species group most sensitive to acidification. My results showed that areas with greater acidification have greater negative responses to climate change, e.g. polar regions. However, ocean warming will likely be a greater driver in species distributions and may overshadow direct effects of acidification. While greater climate change will generally have negative consequences on fisheries, Arctic regions may see increased fisheries catch potential as species shift poleward. Canada’s Arctic remains one of the most pristine marine regions left in the world and climate-driven increases in fisheries potential will have major implications for biodiversity and local indigenous reliance on marine resources. In the face of global environmental change, my thesis provides databases, modelling approaches, scenario development, and assessments of global change necessary for adaptation and mitigation of climate-related effects on marine fisheries.
Co-culture in marine farms: macroalgae can act as chemical refuge for shell-forming molluscs under an ocean acidification scenario
Published 16 September 2019 Science ClosedTags: algae, fisheries, mollusks, photosynthesis, review, socio-economy
With ongoing climate change, aquaculture faces environmental challenges similar to those of natural ecosystems. These include increasing stress for calcifying species, e.g. macroalgae and shellfish. In this context, ocean acidification (OA) has the potential to affect important socioeconomic activities, including shellfish aquaculture, due to changes in the seawater carbonate system. However, coastal environments are characterised by strong diurnal pH fluctuations associated with the metabolic activity of macroalgae; that is, photosynthesis and respiration. This suggests that calcifying organisms that inhabit these ecosystems are adapted to this fluctuating pH environment. Macrophyte-dominated environments may have the potential to act as an OA buffering system in the form of a photosynthetic footprint, by reducing excess of CO2 and increasing the seawater pH and Ωarg. This can support calcification and other threatened physiological processes of calcifying organisms under a reduced pH environment. Because this footprint is supportive beyond the macroalgal canopy spatial area, this chemical refuge mechanism can be applied to support shellfish aquaculture, e.g. mussels. However, this approach should be tested in commercial shellfish farms to determine critical aspects of implementation. This includes critical factors such as target species and productivity rates. The degree of OA buffering capacity caused by the metabolic activity of macroalgae might depend on community structure and hydrodynamic conditions, creating site-specific responses. This concept might aid the development of future adaptive strategies, supporting marine ecological planning for the mussel aquaculture industry in Chile.
Evaluating present and future potential of arctic fisheries in Canada
Published 15 August 2019 Science ClosedTags: Arctic, fish, fisheries, modeling, regionalmodeling, socio-economy
Highlights
• Climate change will increase access to Arctic marine fish stocks in Canada.
• Projections show positive increases in fisheries catch and value potential with climate change.
• Range shifts driven by ocean warming will lead to increased catch potential.
• Ocean acidification may reduce projected increase in catch potential.
• Ecological, economic, social and cultural impacts of exploitation must be considered.
Abstract
The Arctic remains one of the most pristine marine regions in the world, however climate change and increasing favourable conditions is triggering increasing exploration and development of commercial fisheries. Canada’s Arctic marine capture fisheries are currently small relative to fisheries in other regions in Canada but small scale, predominantly Inuit fisheries are more wide spread. In this study, catch data was first used to estimate the current state of Arctic marine fisheries. Next, an integrated modelling approach was used to estimate the current and future fisheries potentials under high and low climate change scenarios. Comparisons of the current (2004–2015) annual reported tonnage and modelled estimates (±standard deviation) suggest that annual sustainable fisheries catch potential could be much greater at 4.07 (±2.86) million tonnes than the current catch of 189 (±6.26) thousand tonnes. Under a high climate change scenario, future (2091–2100) fisheries potential was projected to increase to 6.95 (±5.07) million tonnes of catch, while under low climate change scenario catch potential was similar to estimates of current catch potential. However, the greatest source of variance in catch potential estimates came from parameter uncertainty, followed by scenario and model uncertainty. These results contribute to understanding Canada’s Arctic marine ecosystems in the face of a rapidly changing environment, yet proper steps must be taken to ensure cultural preservation for Inuit communities as well as ecological, economic, and social sustainability.
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The Great Barrier Reef: vulnerabilities and solutions in the face of ocean acidification
Published 16 July 2019 Science ClosedTags: corals, policy, review, socio-economy, South Pacific
As living carbonate-based structures, coral reefs are highly vulnerable to ocean acidification. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest continuous coral reef system in the world. Its economic, social, and icon assets are valued at AU$56 billion (Deloitte Access Economics, 2017), owing to its vast biodiversity and services related to commercial and recreational fisheries, shoreline protection, and reef-related tourism and recreation. Ocean acidification poses a significant risk to these ecological and socioeconomic services, threatening not only the structural foundation of the GBR but the livelihoods of reef-dependent sectors of society. To assess the vulnerabilities of the GBR to ocean acidification, we review the characteristics of the GBR and the current valuation and factors affecting potential losses across three major areas of socioeconomic concern: fisheries, shoreline protection, and reef-related tourism and recreation. We then discuss potential solutions, both conventional and unconventional, for mitigating ocean acidification impacts on the GBR and propose a suite of actions that would help assess and increase the region’s preparedness for the effects of ocean acidification.
Building the knowledge-to-action pipeline in North America: connecting ocean acidification research and actionable decision support
Published 3 July 2019 Science ClosedTags: education, policy, review, socio-economy
Ocean acidification (OA) describes the progressive decrease in the pH of seawater and other cascading chemical changes resulting from oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon. These changes can have important implications for marine ecosystems, creating risk for commercial industries, subsistence communities, cultural practices, and recreation. Characterizing the extent of acidification and predicting the ramifications for marine and freshwater resources and ecosystem services are critical to national and international climate mitigation discussions and to local communities that rely on these resources. Based on critical grassroots connections between scientists, stakeholders and decision makers, “Knowledge-to-Action” networks for ocean acidification issues have formed at local, regional and international scales to take action. Here, we review three examples of North American groups elevating the issue of ocean acidification at these three levels. They each focus on developing practicable, implementable steps to mitigate causes, to adapt to unavoidable change, and to build resilience to changing ocean conditions in the marine environment and coastal communities. While these first steps represent critical efforts in protecting ecosystems and economies from the risks posed by ocean acidification, some challenges remain. Sensitivity and risk to OA varies by region, species and ecosystems; priorities for action can vary between multiple and conflicting partners; evidence-based strategies for OA risk mitigation are still in the early stages; and gaps remain between scientific research and actionable decision-maker support products. However, the scaled networks profiled here have proven to be adept at identifying and addressing these barriers to action. In the future, it will be critical to expand funding for food web impact studies and development of decision support tools, and to maintain the connections between scientists and marine resource users to build resilience to ocean acidification impacts.
People and the changing nature of coral reefs
Published 6 June 2019 Science ClosedTags: policy, review, socio-economy
Highlights
• Large numbers of people in tropical regions are highly dependent on the goods and services produced by coral reef ecosystems.
• Coral reef ecosystems are under severe threat from both local and global threats, which are degrading the ecosystem services that they provide to humanity.
• Past studies have assumed that the loss of ecosystem services will lead to a proportionate impact on people.
• We argue that this is unlikely to be the case in the short-term due to the high level of adaptability illustrated by communities associated with coral reefs. Eventually, however, stress will reach levels that exhaust the capacity of people and communities to adapt.
• Data sets and analysis are sparse, however, we call for a greater focus on understanding the flexibility and adaptability of people associated with coral reefs, especially in a time of rapid global change.
Abstract
Coral reefs are biodiverse and productive ecosystems but are threatened by local and global stresses. The resulting loss of coral reefs is threatening coastal food and livelihoods. Climate projections suggest that coral reefs will continue to undergo major changes even if the goals of the Paris Agreement (Dec 2015) are successfully implemented. Ecological changes include modified food webs, shifts in community structure, reduced habitat complexity, decreased fecundity and recruitment, changes to fisheries productivity/opportunity, and a shift in the carbonate budget of some ecosystems toward dissolution and erosion of calcium carbonate stocks. Broad estimates of the long-term (present value) of services provided by the ocean’s ecological assets exist and are useful in highlighting the value of reefs yet must be contextualised by how people respond under ecosystem change. The dynamic nature of the relationship between people, economies, and the environment complicates estimation of human consequences and economic outcomes of changing environmental and ecological capital. Challenges have increased given lack of baseline data and our inability to predict (with any precision) how people respond to changing coral reef conditions, especially given the variability, flexibility, and creativity shown by human communities and economies under change. Here, we explore how the changes to the three-dimensional structure of coral reefs affect benefits for people, specifically coastal protection, fisheries habitat, and tourism. Based on a review of available data and literature, we make a series of key recommendations that are required to better understanding of how global change will affect people dependent on coral reefs. These include: (1) baseline studies and frameworks for understanding human responses to climate change within complex social and ecological setting such as coral reefs, (2) better tools for exploring environmental benefits, markets, and financial systems faced by change, and (3) the integration of these insights into more effective policy making.
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Ecological and socioeconomic strategies to sustain Caribbean coral reefs in a high-CO2 world
Published 20 May 2019 Science ClosedTags: corals, North Atlantic, policy, socio-economy
The Caribbean and Western Atlantic region hosts one of the world’s most diverse geopolitical regions and a unique marine biota distinct from tropical seas in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. While this region varies in human population density, GDP and wealth, coral reefs, and their associated ecosystem services, are central to people’s livelihoods. Unfortunately, the region’s reefs have experienced extensive degradation over the last several decades. This degradation has been attributed to a combination of disease, overfishing, and multiple pressures from other human activities. Furthermore, the Caribbean region has experienced rapid ocean warming and acidification as a result of climate change that will continue and accelerate throughout the 21st century. It is evident that these changes will pose increasing threats to Caribbean reefs unless imminent actions are taken at the local, regional and global scale. Active management is required to sustain Caribbean reefs and increase their resilience to recover from acute stress events. Here, we propose local and regional solutions to halt and reverse Caribbean coral reef degradation under ongoing ocean warming and acidification. Because the Caribbean has already experienced high coral reef degradation, we suggest that this region may be suitable for more aggressive interventions than might be suitable for other regions. Solutions with direct ecological benefits highlighted here build on existing knowledge of factors that can contribute to reef restoration and increased resilience in the Caribbean: (1) management of water quality, (2) reduction of unsustainable fishing practices, (3) application of ecological engineering, and (4) implementing marine spatial planning. Complementary socioeconomic and governance solutions include: (1) increasing communication and leveraging resources through the establishment of a regional reef secretariat, (2) incorporating reef health and sustainability goals into the blue economy plans for the region, and (3) initiating a reef labelling program to incentivize corporate partnerships for reef restoration and protection to sustain overall reef health in the region.
Arctic ocean acidification assessment 2018: summary for policy-makers
Published 8 May 2019 Science ClosedTags: Arctic, policy, review, socio-economy
Some of the fastest rates of acidification are occurring in the Arctic, due mainly to the higher capacity of colder water to absorb CO2, but also due to dilution by river run-off and ice melt, and the inflow of naturally low pH waters from the Pacific. Changes are already evident in the Arctic Ocean’s marine carbonate system – which, among other things, has been shown to influence growth, reproduction and ultimately survival in some organisms. These changes may cause significant ecological shifts in the coming decades. These shifts could, in turn, have significant socioeconomic consequences, not only for Arctic communities, but more widely. These concerns were referenced in the Fairbanks Declaration of 11 May 2017, when ministers representing the eight Arctic states, and representatives of the six Permanent Participant organizations, noted “with concern the vulnerability of Arctic marine ecosystems to the impacts of ocean acidification”, and called for continuing study and awareness raising regarding those impacts and their consequences.
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Global aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability
Published 2 May 2019 Science ClosedTags: review, socio-economy
To meet the demand for food from a growing global population, aquaculture production is under great pressure to increase as capture fisheries have stagnated. However, aquaculture has raised a range of environmental concerns, and further increases in aquaculture production will face widespread environmental challenges. The effects of climate change will pose a further threat to global aquaculture production. Aquaculture is often at risk from a combination of climatic variables, including cyclone, drought, flood, global warming, ocean acidification, rainfall variation, salinity, and sea level rise. For aquaculture growth to be sustainable its environmental impacts must reduce significantly. Adaptation to climate change is also needed to produce more fish without environmental impacts. Some adaptation strategies including integrated aquaculture, recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), and the expansion of seafood farming could increase aquaculture productivity, environmental sustainability, and climate change adaptability.
Ocean acidification impacts on coastal ecosystem services due to habitat degradation
Published 30 April 2019 Science ClosedTags: BRcommunity, review, socio-economy, vents
The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is changing seawater chemistry in a process known as ocean acidification. The chemistry of this rapid change in surface waters is well understood and readily detectable in oceanic observations, yet there is uncertainty about the effects of ocean acidification on society since it is difficult to scale-up from laboratory and mesocosm tests. Here, we provide a synthesis of the likely effects of ocean acidification on ecosystem properties, functions and services based on observations along natural gradients in pCO2. Studies at CO2 seeps worldwide show that biogenic habitats are particularly sensitive to ocean acidification and that their degradation results in less coastal protection and less habitat provisioning for fisheries. The risks to marine goods and services amplify with increasing acidification causing shifts to macroalgal dominance, habitat degradation and a loss of biodiversity at seep sites in the tropics, the sub-tropics and on temperate coasts. Based on this empirical evidence, we expect ocean acidification to have serious consequences for the millions of people who are dependent on coastal protection, fisheries and aquaculture. If humanity is able to make cuts in fossil fuel emissions, this will reduce costs to society and avoid the changes in coastal ecosystems seen in areas with projected pCO2 levels. A binding international agreement for the oceans should build on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal to ‘minimise and address the impacts of ocean acidification’.
Expert assessment of risks posed by climate change and anthropogenic activities to ecosystem services in the deep North Atlantic
Published 29 April 2019 Science ClosedTags: socio-economy
Sustainable development of the ocean is a central policy objective in Europe through the Blue Growth Strategy and globally through parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity. Achieving sustainable exploitation of deep sea resources is challenged due to the huge uncertainty around the many risks posed by human activities on these remote ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We used a Delphi approach, an iterative expert-based survey process, to assess risks to ecosystem services in the North Atlantic Ocean from climate change (water temperature and ocean acidification), the blue economy (fishing, pollution, oil and gas activities, deep seabed mining, maritime and coastal tourism and blue biotechnology), and their cumulative effects. Ecosystem services from the deep sea, identified through the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment framework, were presented in an expert survey to assess the impacts of human drivers on these services. The results from this initial survey were analyzed and then presented in a second survey. The final results, based on 55 expert responses, indicated that pollution and temperature change each pose a high risk to more than 28% of deep-sea ecosystem services, whilst ocean acidification, and fisheries both pose a high risk to more than 19% of the deep-sea ecosystem services. Services considered to be most at risk of being impacted by anthropogenic activities were biodiversity and habitat as supporting services, biodiversity as a cultural service, and fish and shellfish as provisioning services. Tourism and blue biotechnology were not seen to cause serious risk to any of the ecosystem services. The negative impacts from temperature change, ocean acidification, fishing, pollution, and oil and gas activities were deemed to be largely more probable than their positive impacts. These results expand our knowledge of how a broad set of deep-sea ecosystem services are impacted by human activities. Furthermore, the study provides input in relation to future priorities regarding research in the Atlantic deep sea.
Direct and indirect impacts of marine acidification on the ecosystem services provided by coralligenous reefs and seagrass systems
Published 22 April 2019 Science ClosedTags: biological response, communitymodeling, corals, modeling, phanerogams, socio-economy
Increasing emissions of CO2 and the resultant ocean acidification (OA) will have large implications for the marine ecosystems sustained by habitat-forming species and their related ecosystem services (ES), with potentially significant impacts on human well-being. Here, we provide an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of OA on ES. The changes in the functioning of coralligenous reefs and Posidonia oceanica meadows promoted by OA were investigated by i) synthesizing current knowledge into conceptual models. The models were then used to, ii) assessing the impacts of exposure of the selected taxa at the acidification level associated with two CO2 emission scenarios and iii) using the conceptual model outputs to project the cascading impacts from individuals to functions to ES.
The results highlight that the combination of the direct and indirect effects of acidification will alter many functions of both coralligenous and P.oceanica systems, triggering habitat modifications and the loss of highly valuable ES.
While the exact timing of the expected changes will depend on the severity of the emission scenarios, significant and hardly reversible changes can be expected as quickly as a few decades under the business-as-usual scenario, and many ecosystem services are at risk even under much more conservative scenarios.
Evolution of the human impact on oceans: tipping points of socio-ecological coviability
Published 20 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: review, socio-economy
Since an important degree of the carbon dioxide (CO2) that mankind emits in the atmosphere ends up in the ocean as a result of gas exchange through the air-sea interface, the ocean acidifies itself (because of the reaction CO2 produces when it contacts water). Ocean acidification is one of the perturbing anthropogenic effects (because of human activity), not only for maritime ecosystems but also for Man himself as he will have to adapt. He will have to deal with variations in fisheries and other costal touristic activities (reduction of corals, and so on). However, the anthropogenic CO2 penetration in the ocean is not uniform, and the cold Polar Regions will be affected by the change faster than the warm tropical regions. The study that we are conducting addresses several points of the quantification, in time and space, of anthropogenic CO2 penetration in the ocean. One of them has permitted the identification of breaking points. We demonstrate that four tipping points can be located in order to quantify risks of ocean acidification, which may have as a result the dissolution of calcium carbonates that are indispensable to marine ecosystems (shells, corals, and so on).
Socio-economic tools to mitigate the impacts of ocean acidification on economies and communities reliant on coral reefs–a framework for prioritization
Published 19 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: corals, policy, review, socio-economy
Coral reef preservation is a challenge for the whole of humanity, not just for the estimated three billion people that directly depend upon coral reefs for their livelihoods and food security. Ocean acidification combined with rising sea surface temperatures, and an array of other anthropogenic influences such as pollution, sedimentation, over fishing, and coral mining represent the key threats currently facing coral reef survival. Here we summarise a list of agreements, policies, and socio-economic tools and instruments that can be used by global, national and local decision-makers to address ocean acidification and associated threats, as identified during an expert workshop in October 2017. We then discuss these tools and instruments at a global level and identify the key tasks for raising decision makers’ awareness. Finally, we suggest ways of prioritizing between different actions or tools for mitigation and adaptation.
Ocean acidification impacts in select Pacific Basin coral reef ecosystems
Published 12 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: corals, North Pacific, review, socio-economy, South Pacific
In the vast tropical Pacific Basin islands, corals reef ecosystems are one of the defining marine habitats, critical for maintaining biodiversity and supporting highly productive fisheries. These reefs are also vital for tourism and armoring exposed shorelines against erosion and other storm-related effects. Since the 1980’s, there has been growing evidence that these Pacific Basin coral reef ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the combined effects of both climatic and non-climatic stressors. Observations of widespread bleaching in the region has been linked to acute temperature stress, and the heightened recurrence intervals and intensity of storms has been correlated to recent climate-change induced impacts. Ocean acidification is another ubiquitous stressor with dramatic consequences to biological systems. In this paper we describe what sets this region apart from other coral reef regions around the world, and highlight some examples of the diverse response to ocean acidification threats and associated socio-economic impacts.
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Ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs: from sciences to solutions
Published 12 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: corals, review, socio-economy
Coral reefs distinctly illustrate the close relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem services. They are rich marine ecosystems, hosting extensive biological diversity, and yet that diversity and the ecosystem services provided are among the most endangered because of global changes. By reducing and altering coral reef biodiversity, global changes are endangering the lives of hundreds of millions of people. It was therefore appropriate that the ongoing workshop series ”Bridging the gap between Ocean Acidification and Economic Valuation” dedicated, during the International Year of Coral Reefs, its 4edition in search of solutions inspired by the most recent data of the Natural, Economic and Social Sciences. This article summarizes the ecological and human importance of coral reefs, the reasons for their sensitivity to global changes, and presents the major conclusions of the workshop as well as policy options.
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Dealing with the effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs in the Indian Ocean and Asia
Published 11 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: Indian, review, socio-economy, South Pacific
Shallow coral reefs provide food, income, well-being and coastal protection to countries around the Indian Ocean and Asia. These reefs are under threat due to many anthropogenic stressors including pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, sea surface warming and habitat destruction. Ocean acidification interacts with these factors to exacerbate stress on coral reefs. Effective solutions in tackling the impact of ocean acidification require a thorough understanding of the current adaptive capacity of each nation to deal with the consequences. Here, we aim to help the decision-making process for policy makers in dealing with these future challenges at the regional and national levels. We recommend that a series of evaluations be made to understand the current status of each nation in this region in dealing with ocean acidification impacts by assessing the climate policy, education, policy coherence, related research activities, adaptive capacity of reef-dependent economic sectors and local management. Indonesia and Thailand, are selected as case studies. We also highlight general recommendations on mitigation and adaptation to ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs and propose well-designed research program would be necessary for developing a more targeted policy agenda in this region.
Ecological-economic sustainability of the Baltic cod fisheries under ocean warming and acidification
Published 11 March 2019 Science ClosedTags: Baltic, biological response, fish, individualmodeling, modeling, multiple factors, regionalmodeling, socio-economy, temperature
Highlights
• Ocean warming and acidification (OAW) will drastically decrease cod fishing opportunities in the Baltic.
• Ecological-economic modeling shows high losses in catch, and profits due to OAW.
• There is a high risk of cod stock collapse under mid-term climate change.
• Improved management could temporarily counteract OAW stressors.
• Adaptation includes a reduction in fishing mortality, and increased mesh size.
Abstract
Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.
Coral reefs of the Red Sea — challenges and potential solutions
Published 14 January 2019 Science ClosedTags: policy, Red Sea, review, socio-economy
The Red Sea is a unique body of water, hosting some of the most productive and diverse coral reefs. Human populations along coasts of the Red Sea were initially sparse due to the hot and arid climate surrounding it, but this is changing with improved desalination techniques, accessible energy, and increased economic interest in coastal areas. In addition to increasing pressure on reefs from coastal development, global drivers, primarily ocean acidification and seawater warming, are threatening coral reefs of the region. While reefs in southern sections of the Red Sea live near or above their maximum temperature tolerance and have experienced bleaching events in the recent past, coral reefs in northern sections are considered a coral reef refugia from global warming and acidification, at least for the coming decades. Such differential sensitivities along the latitudinal gradient of the Red Sea require differential solutions and management. In an effort to identify the appropriate solutions to conserve and maintain resilience of these reefs along a latitudinal gradient, we used a SWOT analysis (strengths/weaknesses/opportunities/threats) to frame the present situation and to propose policy solutions as useful planning procedures. We highlight the need for immediate action to secure the northern sections of the Red Sea as a coral reef climate change refuge by management and removal of local stressors. There is a need to strengthen the scientific knowledge base for proper management and to encourage regional collaboration on environmental issues. Based on scientific data, solutions such as marine protected areas, fishing regulation, and reef restoration approaches were ranked for five distinct latitudinal sections in the Red Sea and levels of interventions are recommended.
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