Posts Tagged 'globalmodeling'

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More frequent abrupt marine environmental changes expected

Published 16 February 2024 Science Closed
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Abstract

We quantify an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in ocean environmental conditions under human-induced climate forcing using Earth system model output through a novel analysis method that compares the temporal evolution of the forcings applied with the development of local ocean state changes for temperature, oxygen concentration, and carbonate ion concentration. Through a multi-centennial Earth system model experiment, we show that such an increase is not fully reversible after excess greenhouse gas emissions go back to zero. The increase in occurrence of regional abrupt changes in marine environmental conditions has not yet been accounted for adequately in climate impact analyses that usually associate ecosystem shifts large-scale variability or extreme events. Estimates for remaining greenhouse gas emission targets need thus to be more conservative.

Key Points

  • There is an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in key ocean state variables under human-induced climate forcing
  • The occurrence of abrupt changes in the upper ocean peaks around the maximum of the rate of change in human-induced forcing
  • A multi-centennial legacy is expected for abrupt shifts in environmental conditions, long after a stop of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
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Changes in global DMS production driven by increased CO2 levels and its impact on radiative forcing

Published 5 February 2024 Science Closed
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Our study highlights the importance of understanding the future changes in dimethyl-sulfide (DMS), the largest natural sulfur source, in the context of ocean acidification driven by elevated CO2 levels. We found a strong negative correlation (R2 = 0.89) between the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) and sea-surface DMS concentrations based on global observational datasets, not adequately captured by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth System Models (ESMs). Using this relationship, we refined projections of future sea-surface DMS concentrations in CMIP6 ESMs. Our study reveals a decrease in global sea-surface DMS concentrations and the associated aerosol radiative forcing compared to ESMs’ results. These reductions represent ~9.5% and 11.1% of the radiative forcings resulting from aerosol radiation and cloud interactions in 2100 reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Thus, future climate projections should account for the climate implications of changes in DMS production due to ocean acidification.

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Acidification of the global surface ocean: what we have learned from observations

Published 25 January 2024 Science Closed
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The chemistry of the global ocean is rapidly changing due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2). This process, commonly referred to as ocean acidification (OA), is negatively impacting many marine species and ecosystems. In this study, we combine observations in the global surface ocean collected by NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory scientists and their national and international colleagues over the last several decades, along with model outputs, to provide a high-​resolution, regionally varying view of global surface ocean carbon dioxide fugacity, carbonate ion content, total hydrogen ion content, pH on total scale, and aragonite and calcite saturation states on selected time intervals from 1961 to 2020. We discuss the major roles played by air-sea anthropogenic CO2 uptake, warming, local upwelling processes, and declining buffer capacity in controlling the spatial and temporal variability of these parameters. These changes are occurring rapidly in regions that would normally be considered OA refugia, thus threatening the protection that these regions provide for stocks of sensitive species and increasing the potential for expanding biological impacts.

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Atmospheric CO2 emissions and ocean acidification from bottom-trawling

Published 22 January 2024 Science Closed
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Trawling the seafloor can disturb carbon that took millennia to accumulate, but the fate of that carbon and its impact on climate and ecosystems remains unknown. Using satellite-inferred fishing events and carbon cycle models, we find that 55-60% of trawling-induced aqueous CO2 is released to the atmosphere over 7-9 years. Using recent estimates of bottom trawling’s impact on sedimentary carbon, we found that between 1996-2020 trawling could have released, at the global scale, up to 0.34-0.37 Pg CO2 yr-1 to the atmosphere, and locally altered water pH in some semi-enclosed and heavy trawled seas. Our results suggest that the management of bottom-trawling efforts could be an important climate solution.

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A global biogeography analysis reveals vulnerability of surface marine zooplankton to anthropogenic stressors

Published 16 January 2024 Science Closed
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Highlights

  • Multiple stress factors for zooplankton overlap in the surface ocean
  • Stress brought by surface warming and acidification strongly increased in ∼50 years
  • More research on anthropogenic impacts on zooplankton is urgently needed

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Summary

Anthropogenic impacts on zooplankton at the surface ocean pose an urgent challenge because these keystone species are crucial for oceanic processes. Some anthropogenic stressors for zooplankton have been identified, such as acidification due to climate change, but a multitude of other stressors exist, and the combination of these may lead to unknown impacts. We utilized global biogeochemical models to assess the temporal and spatial distribution of zooplankton stress factors, including changes in sea surface temperature, acidification, prey quantity, food quality, and contaminants. We highlighted regional hotspots where multiple stress factors overlap and revealed that most stress factors are increasing. By linking stress factors to zooplankton distribution, we introduced a zooplankton vulnerability index. We found that the zooplankton vulnerability index has doubled in 50 years, and this suggests that zooplankton populations are increasingly at risk from anthropogenic stressors. Further research is needed to develop strategies for mitigating the impacts of anthropogenic stressors on zooplankton.

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Extinction risk of the world’s chondrichthyan fishes: a global assessment of the interplay between anthropogenic factors and marine protected areas

Published 15 January 2024 Science Closed
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Patterns of Chondrichthyes species richness (CSR) are widely recognized as being influenced by environmental conditions. However, untangling the intricate interplay between anthropogenic impacts and spatial patterns of CSR remains a challenging endeavor. In this study, we evaluate the influence of thirteen human-related variables, encompassing human-induced effects and marine protected areas, on global CSR. Additionally, we explore their effects on threatened species, those declining, those utilized and traded, and those facing direct human-induced threats. Utilizing simple, multiple, and simultaneous regression models, we comprehensively investigated the relationship between human-altered variables and marine protected areas on CSR across oceanic regions. Our findings distinctly reveal a compelling convergence of human-related variables with CSR. Notably, factors such as global ocean acidification, demersal destructive practices (e.g., bottom trawling), pelagic low bycatch techniques (e.g., hook and line), and demersal non-destructive high bycatch methods (e.g., pots, traps) exhibit robust negative associations. Intriguingly, a positive association emerges with the presence of marine protected areas. Furthermore, our study underscores the profound impact of diverse human activities on CSR, significantly heightening their vulnerability to threats and imminent extinction risks. These results accentuate the critical significance of conservation strategies centered on marine protected areas, maximizing the optimized preservation of Chondrichthyes across marine ecosystems. In light of these insights, we stress the paramount role of planners and managers in mitigating direct human impacts on marine ecosystems, which is crucial for ensuring the enduring presence of Chondrichthyes across the oceans.

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Assessing the remaining carbon budget through the lens of policy-driven acidification and temperature targets

Published 18 September 2023 Science Closed
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Basing a remaining carbon budget on warming targets is subject to uncertainty due to uncertainty in the relationship between carbon emissions and warming. Framing emissions targets using a warming target therefore may not prevent dangerous change throughout the entire Earth system. Here, we use a climate emulator to constrain a remaining carbon budget that is more representative of the entire Earth system by using a combination of both warming and ocean acidification targets. The warming targets considered are the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 and 2 °C; the acidification targets are −0.17 and −0.21 pH units, informed by aragonite saturation states where coral growth begins to be compromised. The aim of the dual targets is to prevent not only damage associated with warming, but damage to corals associated with atmospheric carbon and ocean acidification. We find that considering acidification targets in conjunction with warming targets narrows the uncertainty in the remaining carbon budget, especially in situations where the acidification target is more stringent than, or of similar stringency to, the warming target. Considering a strict combination of the two more stringent targets (both targets of 1.5 °C warming and −0.17 acidification must be met), the carbon budget ranges from −74.0 to 129.8PgC. This reduces uncertainty in the carbon budget from by 29% (from 286.2PgC to 203.8PgC). This reduction comes from reducing the high-end estimate of the remaining carbon budget derived from just a warming target. Assuming an emissions rate held constant since 2021 (which is a conservative assumption), the budget towards both targets was either spent by 2019 or will be spent by 2026.

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Seasonal variability of the surface ocean carbon cycle: a synthesis

Published 4 September 2023 Science Closed
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Abstract

The seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in the air-sea CO2 flux in most regions of the global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux seasonality from models and observation-based estimates, focusing on both a present-day climatology and decadal changes between the 1980s and 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) and observation-based estimates (pCO2 products) of surface pCO2 seasonality disagree in amplitude and phase, primarily due to discrepancies in the seasonal variability in surface DIC. Second, the seasonal cycle in pCO2 has increased in amplitude over the last three decades in both pCO2 products and GOBMs. Third, decadal increases in pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitudes in subtropical biomes for both pCO2 products and GOBMs are driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming from the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). In subpolar and Southern Ocean biomes, however, the seasonality change for GOBMs is dominated by Cant invasion, whereas for pCO2 products an indeterminate combination of Cant invasion and climate change modulates the changes. Fourth, biome-aggregated decadal changes in the amplitude of pCO2 seasonal variability are largely detectable against both mapping uncertainty (reducible) and natural variability uncertainty (irreducible), but not at the gridpoint scale over much of the northern subpolar oceans and over the Southern Ocean, underscoring the importance of sustained high-quality seasonally-resolved measurements over these regions.

Key Points

  • pCO2 seasonal cycle amplitude changes over 1985-2018 are detectable against both mapping uncertainty and natural variability uncertainty
  • The dominant driver of pCO2 amplitude increases over decadal timescales is attributed to the direct effect of Cant invasion
  • A discrepancy is found with surface DIC seasonality being systematically less in GOBMs than in surface DIC observation-based products
Continue reading ‘Seasonal variability of the surface ocean carbon cycle: a synthesis’

Drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes in an Earth system model

Published 23 August 2023 Science Closed
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Abstract

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon causes acidification, a process that describes the increase in hydrogen ion concentrations ([H+]) and decrease in calcium carbonate mineral saturation states (Ω). Of particular concern are ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, which pose a significant threat to many calcifying marine organisms. However, the mechanisms driving such extreme events are not well understood. Here, we use high-frequency output from a fully-coupled Earth system model of all processes that influence the surface ocean temperature and carbon budgets and ultimately [H+] and Ω anomalies to quantify the driving mechanisms of the onset and decline of high [H+] and low Ω extreme events. We show that enhanced temperature plays a crucial role in driving [H+] extremes, with increased net ocean heat uptake being the dominant driver of the event onset in the subtropics. In the mid-to-high latitudes, decreased downward vertical diffusion and mixing of warm surface waters during summer, and increased vertical mixing with warm and carbon-rich subsurface waters during winter are the main drivers of high [H+] extreme event onset. In the tropics, increases in vertical advection of carbon-rich subsurface waters are the primary driver of the onset of high [H+] extremes. In contrast, low Ω extremes are driven in most regions by increases in surface carbon concentration due to increased vertical mixing with carbon-rich subsurface waters. Our study highlights the complex interplay between heat and carbon anomalies driving OAX events and provides a first foundation for more accurate prediction of their future evolution.

Key Points

  • The physical and biogeochemical drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes are analysed using high-frequency output of an Earth system model
  • Higher temperatures due to enhanced ocean heat uptake drive the onset of high [H+] extremes in the subtropics
  • In contrast, higher carbon concentrations due to increased vertical mixing and advection cause low Ω extremes in most regions
Continue reading ‘Drivers of surface ocean acidity extremes in an Earth system model’

Implementing a coral reef CaCO3 production module in the iLOVECLIM climate model

Published 20 July 2023 Science Closed
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Coral reef development is intricately linked to both climate and the concentration of atmospheric CO2, specifically through temperature and carbonate chemistry in the upper ocean. In turn, the calcification of corals modifies the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity in the ocean, impacting air-sea gas exchange, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and ultimately the climate. This retroaction between atmospheric conditions and coral biogeochemistry can only be accounted for with a coupled coral-carbon-climate model. Here we present the implementation of a coral reef calcification module into an Earth System model. Simulated coral reef production of the calcium carbonate mineral aragonite depends on photosynthetically active radiation, nutrient concentrations, salinity, temperature and the aragonite saturation state. An ensemble of 210 parameter perturbation simulations was performed to identify carbonate production parameter values that optimise the simulated distribution of coral reefs and associated carbonate production. The tuned model simulates the presence of coral reefs and regional-to-global carbonate production values in good agreement with data-based estimates. The model enables assessment of past and future coral-climate coupling on seasonal to millennial timescales, highlighting how climatic trends and variability may affect reef development and the resulting climate-carbon feedback.

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Carbonate pump feedbacks on alkalinity and the carbon cycle in the 21st century and beyond

Published 19 July 2023 Science Closed
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Ocean acidification is likely to impact all stages of the ocean carbonate pump, i.e. the production, export, dissolution and burial of biogenic CaCO3. However, the associated feedbacks on anthropogenic carbon uptake and ocean acidification have received little attention. It has previously been shown that Earth system model (ESM) carbonate pump parameterizations can affect and drive biases in the representation of ocean alkalinity, which is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and provides buffering capacity towards associated acidification. In the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show divergent responses of CaCO3 export at 100 m this century, with anomalies by 2100 ranging from -74 % to +23 % under a high-emissions scenario. The greatest export declines are projected by ESMs that consider pelagic CaCO3 production to depend on the local calcite/aragonite saturation state. Despite the potential effects of other processes on alkalinity, there is a robust negative correlation between anomalies in CaCO3 export and salinity-normalized surface alkalinity across the CMIP6 ensemble. Motivated by this relationship and the uncertainty in CaCO3 export projections across ESMs, we perform idealized simulations with an ocean biogeochemical model and confirm a limited impact of carbonate pump anomalies on twenty-first century ocean carbon uptake and acidification. However between 2100 and 2300, we highlight a potentially abrupt shift in the dissolution of CaCO3 from deep to subsurface waters when the global scale mean calcite saturation state reaches about 1.23 at 500 m (likely when atmospheric CO2 reaches 900 to 1100 ppm). During this shift, upper ocean acidification due to anthropogenic carbon uptake induces deep ocean acidification driven by a substantial reduction in CaCO3 deep dissolution following its decreased export at depth. Although the effect of a diminished carbonate pump on global ocean carbon uptake and surface ocean acidification remains limited until 2300, it can have a large impact on regional air-sea carbon fluxes, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

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Forecasting seasonal changes in ocean acidification using a novel Grey Seasonal Model with Grey Wolf Optimization

Published 11 July 2023 Science Closed
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Ocean acidification forecasting has important implications for studying global carbon dioxide emissions reductions. However, due to seasonal and cyclical features, ocean acidification forecasting remains an extremely challenging task. Therefore, this paper proposes a grey wolf optimized fractional-order-accumulation discrete grey seasonal model (GFSM(1,1)). The GFSM(1,1) model improves the prediction of ocean acidification in two ways: The new information priority of seasonal data is improved by the fractional accumulation operator, and the adaptability of the grey model to seasonal data is increased by seasonal item parameters. The above two works have significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the grey prediction model for ocean acidification. The prediction results in practical cases prove that the prediction effect of the GFSM(1,1) model is not only better than the existing grey models (FMGM(1,N). NSGM(1,N), and GM(1,1)) but also better than statistical models (Nonlinear regression and ARIMA), traditional neural network model (LSTM) and deep learning model (SVM). Finally, the GFSM(1,1) model is applied to the prediction of seawater acidification. The forecast results show that the ocean will be acidified at a rate of 0.001863 per year, and the pH of the ocean will decrease by about 0.03% per year compared to the same period in previous years.

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Methane-derived authigenic carbonates – a case for a globally relevant marine carbonate factory

Published 6 July 2023 Science Closed
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Precipitation of methane-derived authigenic carbonates (MDAC) is an integral part of marine methane production and consumption, but MDAC’s relative significance to the global marine carbon cycle is not well understood. Here we provide a synthesis and perspective to highlight MDAC from a global marine carbon biogeochemistry viewpoint. MDAC formation is a result and archive of carbon‑sulfur (C – S) coupling in the shallow sulfatic zone and carbon‑silicon (C – Si) coupling in deeper methanic sediments. MDAC constitute a carbon sequestration of 3.93 Tmol C yr−1 (range 2.34–5.8 Tmol C yr−1) in the modern ocean and are the third-largest carbon burial mechanism in marine sediments. This burial compares to 29% (11–57%) organic carbon and 10% (6–23%) skeletal carbonate carbon burial along continental margins. MDAC formation is also an important sink for benthic alkalinity and, thereby, a potential contributor to bottom water acidification. Our understanding of the impact of MDAC on global biogeochemical cycles has evolved over the past five decades from what was traditionally considered a passive carbon sequestration mechanism in a seep-oasis setting to what is now considered a dynamic carbonate factory expanding from deep sediments to bottom waters—a factory that has been operational since the Precambrian. We present a strong case for the need to improve regional scale quantification of MDAC accumulation rates and associated carbonate biogeochemical parameters, leading to their incorporation in present and paleo‑carbon budgets in the next phase of MDAC exploration.

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Interaction matters: bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Published 9 June 2023 Science Closed
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Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO2 and temperature, CO2 and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%–6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (−8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (−5.0% vs. −9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of −10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (−7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.

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Ocean alkalinity enhancement through restoration of blue carbon ecosystems

Published 1 June 2023 Science Closed
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Blue carbon ecosystems provide a wide range of ecosystem services, are critical for maintaining marine biodiversity and may potentially serve as sites of economically viable carbon dioxide removal through enhanced organic carbon storage. Here we use biogeochemical simulations to show that restoration of these marine ecosystems can also lead to permanent carbon dioxide removal by driving ocean alkalinity enhancement and atmosphere-to-ocean CO2 fluxes. Most notably, our findings suggest that restoring mangroves, which are common in tropical shallow marine settings, will lead to notable local ocean alkalinity enhancement across a wide range of scenarios. Enhanced alkalinity production is linked to increased rates of anaerobic respiration and to increased dissolution of calcium carbonate within sediments. This work provides further motivation to pursue feasible blue carbon restoration projects and a basis for incorporating inorganic carbon removal in regulatory and economic incentivization of blue carbon ecosystem restoration.

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Increasing atmospheric CO2 enhances the carbon uptake of the coastal ocean

Published 30 May 2023 Science Closed
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Observational reconstructions indicate a contemporary increase in coastal ocean CO2 uptake. However, the mechanisms and their relative importance in driving this globally intensifying absorption remain unclear. Here we integrate coastal carbon dynamics in a global model via regional grid refinement and enhanced process representation. We find that the increasing coastal ocean CO2 uptake is primarily driven by the upper ocean-atmosphere equilibration lag (41%), followed by climate-induced changes in the circulation (36%) and increasing riverine nutrient loads (23%). The comparatively weak riverine impact is mediated by enhanced advective export of organic carbon across the shelf break, thereby further adding to the carbon enrichment of the open ocean. The contribution of biological carbon fixation increases as the coastal ocean capacity to hold CO2 decreases under continuous climate change and ocean acidification. Our seamless coastal ocean integration advances carbon cycle model realism, which is relevant for addressing impacts of climate change mitigation efforts.

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Calcium isotopes reveal shelf acidification on southern Neotethyan margin during the Smithian-Spathian boundary cooling event

Published 15 May 2023 Science Closed
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The Smithian-Spathian transition of the late Early Triassic was a critical period of environmental and biological upheavals, following the end-Permian mass extinction. Changes in carbonate deposition during this period have been attributed to intensified upwelling along shelf margins, but relevant studies are scarce. Here, we present calcium isotopes of bulk marine carbonate (δ44/40Cacarb) from a Smithian–Spathian boundary (SSB) succession (Guryul Ravine section, Kashmir) on the southern margin of the Neo-Tethys. Our smoothed δ44/40Cacarb curve reveals a ~ 0.2‰ negative shift (from ~ − 1.1‰ to ~ − 1.3‰) across the SSB, concurrent with a ~ +10‰ shift in δ13Ccarb. While increased Ca isotopic fractionation could play a role, we specifically examine potential impacts due to changes in marine Ca fluxes. Using a Ca-cycle mass balance model, we explore scenarios of decreased carbonate burial flux (Fcarb), decreased riverine flux (Friv), and a combination of these processes. The modeling suggest that a pulse decrease in Fcarb by 40% over ~0.06 Myr match the negative shift in δ44/40Cacarb at Guryul Ravine. We infer that this decrease was likely related to intensified upwelling of acidic deep seawater due to invigorated global-oceanic circulation during the SSB cooling event. We suggest that the regionally diverse excursions in δ44/40Cacarb in the Tethyan region could be attributed to spatially varied upwellings in the shelf margin. The upwelling of acidic and anoxic deep seawater may have driven the second-order extinction of ammonoids and conodonts at the beginning of the SSB cooling event.

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CMEMS-LSCE: a global 0.25-degree, monthly reconstruction of the surface ocean carbonate system

Published 12 May 2023 Science Closed
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Observation-based data reconstructions of global surface ocean carbonate system variables play an essential role in monitoring the recent status of ocean carbon uptake and ocean acidification as well as their impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems. So far ongoing efforts are directed towards exploring new approaches to describe the complete marine carbonate system and to better recover its fine-scale features. In this respect, our research activities within the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) aim at developing a sustainable production chain of observation-derived global ocean carbonate system datasets at high space-time resolution. As the start of the long-term objective, this study introduces a new global 0.25° monthly reconstruction, namely CMEMS-LSCE, for the period 1985–2021. The CMEMS-LSCE reconstruction derives datasets of six carbonate system variables including surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), total alkalinity (AT), total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), surface ocean pH, and saturation states with respect to aragonite (Ωar) and calcite (Ωca). Reconstructing pCO2 relies on an ensemble of neural network models mapping gridded observation-based data provided by the Surface Ocean CO2 ATlas (SOCAT). Surface ocean AT is estimated with a multiple linear regression approach, and the remaining carbonate variables are resolved by CO2 system speciation given the reconstructed pCO2 and AT. 1σ-uncertainty associated with these estimates is also provided. Here, σ stands for either ensemble standard deviation of pCO2 estimates or total uncertainty for each of the five other variables propagated through the processing chain with input data uncertainty. We demonstrate that the 0.25°-resolution pCO2 product outperforms a coarser spatial resolution (1°) thanks to a higher data coverage nearshore and a better description of horizontal and temporal variations in pCO2 across diverse ocean basins, particularly in the coastal-open-ocean continuum. Product qualification with observation-based data confirms reliable reconstructions with root-of-mean–square–deviation from observations less than 8 %, 4 %, and 1 % relative to the global mean of pCO2, AT (DIC), and pH. The global average 1σ-uncertainty is below 5 % and 8 % for pCO2 and Ωar (Ωca), 2 % for AT and DIC, and 0.4 % for pH relative to their global mean values. Both model-observation misfit and model uncertainty indicate that coastal data reproduction still needs further improvement, wherein high temporal and horizontal gradients of carbonate variables and representative uncertainty from data sampling would be taken into account in priority. This study also presents a potential use case of the CMEMS-LSCE carbonate data product in tracking the recent state of ocean acidification.

Continue reading ‘CMEMS-LSCE: a global 0.25-degree, monthly reconstruction of the surface ocean carbonate system’

Response of ocean acidification to atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

Published 9 May 2023 Science Closed
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Artificial CO2 removal from the atmosphere (also referred to as negative CO2 emissions) has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change. Here we use an Earth system model to examine the response of ocean acidification to idealized atmospheric CO2 removal scenarios. In our simulations, atmospheric CO2 is assumed to increase at a rate of 1% per year to four times its pre-industrial value and then decreases to the pre-industrial level at a rate of 0.5%, 1%, 2% per year, respectively. Our results show that the annual mean state of surface ocean carbonate chemistry fields including hydrogen ion concentration ([H+]), pH and aragonite saturation state respond quickly to removal of atmospheric CO2. However, the change of seasonal cycle in carbonate chemistry lags behind the decline in atmospheric CO2. When CO2 returns to the pre-industrial level, over some parts of the ocean, relative to the pre-industrial state, the seasonal amplitude of carbonate chemistry fields is substantially larger. Simulation results also show that changes in deep ocean carbonate chemistry substantially lag behind atmospheric CO2 change. When CO2 returns to its pre-industrial value, the whole-ocean acidity measured by [H+] is 15%-18% larger than the pre-industrial level, depending on the rate of CO2 decrease. Our study demonstrates that even if atmospheric CO2 can be lowered in the future as a result of net negative CO2 emissions, the recovery of some aspects of ocean acidification would take decades to centuries, which would have important implications for the resilience of marine ecosystems.

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Robust estimates of the total alkalinity from satellite oceanographic data in the global ocean

Published 8 May 2023 Science Closed
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Total alkalinity (TA) is a key parameter to understand the dynamics of biogeochemical properties in the global ocean and the effects of climate change on ocean acidification, ocean carbon cycle, and carbonate chemistry. To date, global surface ocean distributions of TA were investigated using multiple regional regression approaches which require smoothening techniques due to severe boundary effects in different oceanic regions/basins across latitudes/longitudes. To reduce the uncertainties and produce spatially and temporally consistent TA products, a novel single linear regression (SLR) approach was developed in this study to estimate TA fields in the global surface ocean waters. The SLR formulation was derived using the continuous in-situ measurements of sea surface salinity (SSS) collected from the different oceans. The performance of the SLR was assessed using independent in-situ/satellite derived TA data and the results from three existing algorithms. In general, the SLR-based global surface ocean TA fields from both in-situ and satellite data agreed well with in-situ measured TA data with a mean relative error less than 1%, which is much lower compared to the error with the existing algorithms. Studies were also conducted to examine the spatiotemporal variability and trends in the global surface ocean climatology of SSS and TA fields in the context of current climate change impacts.

Continue reading ‘Robust estimates of the total alkalinity from satellite oceanographic data in the global ocean’

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