Posts Tagged 'globalmodeling'

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The potential impact of nuclear conflict on ocean acidification

Published 22 January 2020 Science Closed
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We demonstrate that the global cooling resulting from a range of nuclear conflict scenarios would temporarily increase the pH in the surface ocean by up to 0.06 units over a 5‐year period, briefly alleviating the decline in pH associated with ocean acidification. Conversely, the global cooling dissolves atmospheric carbon into the upper ocean, driving a 0.1 to 0.3 unit decrease in the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) that persists for ~10 years. The peak anomaly in pH occurs 2 years post‐conflict, while the Ωarag anomaly peaks 4‐5 years post‐conflict. The decrease in Ωarag would exacerbate a primary threat of ocean acidification: the inability of marine calcifying organisms to maintain their shells/skeletons in a corrosive environment. Our results are based on sensitivity simulations conducted with a state‐of‐the‐art Earth system model integrated under various black carbon (soot) external forcings. Our findings suggest that regional nuclear conflict may have ramifications for global ocean acidification.

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Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers

Published 9 January 2020 Science Closed
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Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems and the socio-economic systems that may depend upon them. Temperature, pH, oxygen (O2) and net primary production (NPP) are commonly considered to be important marine ecosystem drivers, but the potential predictability of these drivers is largely unknown. Here, we use a comprehensive Earth system model within a perfect modelling framework to show that all four ecosystem drivers are potentially predictable on global scales and at the surface up to 3 years in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Maximum potential predictability (> 10 years) is found at the surface for temperature and O2 in the Southern Ocean and for temperature, O2 and pH in the North Atlantic. This is tied to ocean overturning structures with memory or inertia with enhanced predictability in winter. Additionally, these four drivers are highly potentially predictable in the Arctic Ocean at surface. In contrast, minimum predictability is simulated for NPP (< 1 years) in the Southern Ocean. Potential predictability for temperature, O2 and pH increases with depth to more than 10 years below the thermocline, except in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, where predictability is also three to five years in the thermocline. This study indicating multi-year (at surface) and decadal (subsurface) potential predictability for multiple ecosystem drivers is intended as a foundation to foster broader community efforts in developing new predictions of marine ecosystem drivers.

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The magnitude of surface ocean acidification and carbon release during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM‐2) and the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)

Published 26 December 2019 Science Closed
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Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM‐2; 54.1 Ma) was the second largest Eocene hyperthermal. Like the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), ETM‐2 was characterized by massive carbon emissions and several degrees of global warming, thus can serve as a case study for assessing the impacts of rapid CO2 emissions on ocean carbonate chemistry, biota and climate. Marine carbonate records of ETM‐2 are better preserved than those of the PETM due to more subdued carbonate dissolution. As yet, however, the magnitude of this carbon cycle perturbation has not been well constrained. Here, we present the first records of surface ocean acidification for ETM‐2, based on stable boron isotope records in mixed‐layer planktic foraminifera from two mid‐latitude ODP Sites (1210 in the N. Pacific and 1265 in the S.E. Atlantic), which indicate conservative minimum global sea surface acidification of –0.20 +0.12/–0.13 pH units. Using these estimates of pH and temperature as constraints on carbon cycle model simulations, we conclude that the total mass of C, released over a period of 15 to 25 kyr during ETM‐2, likely ranged from 2,600 to 3,800 Gt C, which is greater than previously estimated on the basis of other observations (i.e., stable carbon isotopes and carbonate compensation depth) alone.

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Reduced CaCO3 flux to the seafloor and weaker bottom current speeds curtail benthic CaCO3 dissolution over the 21st century

Published 17 December 2019 Science Closed
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Results from a range of Earth System and climate models of various resolution run under high‐CO2 emission scenarios challenge the paradigm that seafloor CaCO3 dissolution will grow in extent and intensify as ocean acidification develops over the next century. Under the “business as usual,” RCP8.5 scenario, CaCO3 dissolution increases in some areas of the deep ocean, such as the eastern central Pacific Ocean, but is projected to decrease in the Northern Pacific and abyssal Atlantic Ocean by the year 2100. The flux of CaCO3 to the seafloor and bottom‐current speeds, both of which are expected to decrease globally through the 21st century, govern changes in benthic CaCO3 dissolution rates over 53% and 31% of the dissolving seafloor, respectively. Below the calcite compensation depth, a reduced CaCO3 flux to the CaCO3‐free seabed modulates the amount of CaCO3 material dissolved at the sediment‐water interface. Slower bottom‐water circulation leads to thicker diffusive boundary layers above the sediment bed and a consequent stronger transport barrier to CaCO3 dissolution. While all investigated models predict a weakening of bottom current speeds over most of the seafloor by the end of the 21st century, strong discrepancies exist in the magnitude of the predicted speeds. Overall, the poor performance of most models in reproducing modern bottom‐water velocities and CaCO3 rain rates coupled with the existence of large disparities in predicted bottom‐water chemistry across models hampers our ability to robustly estimate the magnitude and temporal evolution of anthropogenic CaCO3 dissolution rates and the associated anthropogenic CO2 neutralization.

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Attributing ocean acidification to major carbon producers

Published 12 December 2019 Science Closed
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Recent research has quantified the contributions of CO2 and CH4 emissions traced to the products of major fossil fuel companies and cement manufacturers to global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level rise. This work has informed societal considerations of the climate responsibilities of these major industrial carbon producers. Here, we extend this work to historical (1880–2015) and recent (1965–2015) acidification of the world’s ocean. Using an energy balance carbon-cycle model, we find that emissions traced to the 88 largest industrial carbon producers from 1880–2015 and 1965–2015 have contributed ~55% and ~51%, respectively, of the historical 1880–2015 decline in surface ocean pH. As ocean acidification is not spatially uniform, we employ a three-dimensional ocean model and identify five marine regions with large declines in surface water pH and aragonite saturation state over similar historical (average 1850–1859 to average 2000–2009) and recent (average 1960–1969 to average of 2000–2009) time periods. We characterize the biological and socioeconomic systems in these regions facing loss and damage from ocean acidification in the context of climate change and other stressors. Such analysis can inform societal consideration of carbon producer responsibility for current and near-term risks of further loss and damage to human communities dependent on marine ecosystems and fisheries vulnerable to ocean acidification.

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Surface ocean pH and buffer capacity: past, present and future

Published 11 December 2019 Science Closed
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The ocean’s chemistry is changing due to the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2). This phenomenon, commonly referred to as “Ocean Acidification”, is endangering coral reefs and the broader marine ecosystems. In this study, we combine a recent observational seawater CO2 data product, i.e., the 6th version of the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (1991–2018, ~23 million observations), with temporal trends at individual locations of the global ocean from a robust Earth System Model to provide a high-resolution regionally varying view of global surface ocean pH and the Revelle Factor. The climatology extends from the pre-Industrial era (1750 C.E.) to the end of this century under historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pre-2005) and the Representative Concentrations Pathways (post-2005) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 5th Assessment Report. By linking the modeled pH trends to the observed modern pH distribution, the climatology benefits from recent improvements in both model design and observational data coverage, and is likely to provide improved regional OA trajectories than the model output could alone, therefore, will help guide the regional OA adaptation strategies. We show that air-sea CO2 disequilibrium is the dominant mode of spatial variability for surface pH, and discuss why pH and calcium carbonate mineral saturation states, two important metrics for OA, show contrasting spatial variability.

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Strong time dependence of ocean acidification mitigation by atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

Published 9 December 2019 Science Closed
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In Paris in 2015, the global community agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 ∘C, aiming at even 1.5 ∘C. It is still uncertain whether these targets are sufficient to preserve marine ecosystems and prevent a severe alteration of marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we show that stringent mitigation strategies consistent with the 1.5 ∘C scenario could, indeed, provoke a critical difference for the ocean’s carbon cycle and calcium carbonate saturation states. Favorable conditions for calcifying organisms like tropical corals and polar pteropods, both of major importance for large ecosystems, can only be maintained if CO2 emissions fall rapidly between 2025 and 2050, potentially requiring an early deployment of CO2 removal techniques in addition to drastic emissions reduction. Furthermore, this outcome can only be achieved if the terrestrial biosphere remains a carbon sink during the entire 21st century.

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Optimum satellite remote sensing of the marine carbonate system using empirical algorithms in the global ocean, the Greater Caribbean, the Amazon Plume and the Bay of Bengal

Published 12 November 2019 Science Closed
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Highlights

• Satellite salinity measurements enable estimation of surface carbonate parameters.

• Uncertainties within these observation-based estimates are well characterized.

• Monthly satellite salinity and temperature allows synoptic monitoring.

• Satellite observations allow study of seasonal, interannual and episodic variations.

Abstract

Improving our ability to monitor ocean carbonate chemistry has become a priority as the ocean continues to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This long-term uptake is reducing the ocean pH; a process commonly known as ocean acidification. The use of satellite Earth Observation has not yet been thoroughly explored as an option for routinely observing surface ocean carbonate chemistry, although its potential has been highlighted. We demonstrate the suitability of using empirical algorithms to calculate total alkalinity (AT) and total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), assessing the relative performance of satellite, interpolated in situ, and climatology datasets in reproducing the wider spatial patterns of these two variables. Both AT and CT in situ data are reproducible, both regionally and globally, using salinity and temperature datasets, with satellite observed salinity from Aquarius and SMOS providing performance comparable to other datasets for the majority of case studies. Global root mean squared difference (RMSD) between in situ validation data and satellite estimates is 17 μmol kg−1 with bias  < 5 μmol kg−1 for AT and 30 μmol kg−1 with bias  < 10 μmol kg−1 for CT. This analysis demonstrates that satellite sensors provide a credible solution for monitoring surface synoptic scale AT and CT. It also enables the first demonstration of observation-based synoptic scale AT and CT temporal mixing in the Amazon plume for 2010–2016, complete with a robust estimation of their uncertainty.

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The mass impacts on chemosynthetic primary producers: potential implications on anammox communities and their consequences

Published 29 August 2019 Science Closed
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The potential of a mass asteroid impact on Earth to disturb the chemosynthetic communities at global scale is discussed. Special emphasis is made on the potential influence on anammox communities and their implications in the nitrogen biogeochemical cycle. According to our preliminary estimates, anammox communities could be seriously affected as a consequence of global cooling and the large process of acidification usually associated with the occurrence of this kind of event. The scale of affectations could vary in a scenario like the Chicxulub as a function of the amount of soot, depth of the water column and the deposition rate for sulphates assumed in each case. The most severe affectations take place where the amount of soot and sulphates produced during the event is higher and the scale of time of settlements for sulphates is short, of the order of 10 h. In this extreme case, the activity of anammox is considerably reduced, a condition that may persist for several years after the impact. Furthermore, the impact of high levels of other chemical compounds like sulphates and nitrates associated with the occurrence of this kind of event are also discussed.

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Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle

Published 20 August 2019 Science Closed
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The attribution of anthropogenically forced trends in the climate system requires an understanding of when and how such signals emerge from natural variability. We applied time-of-emergence diagnostics to a large ensemble of an Earth system model, which provides both a conceptual framework for interpreting the detectability of anthropogenic impacts in the ocean carbon cycle and observational sampling strategies required to achieve detection. We found emergence timescales that ranged from less than a decade to more than a century, a consequence of the time lag between the chemical and radiative impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on the ocean. Processes sensitive to carbonate chemical changes emerge rapidly, such as the impacts of acidification on the calcium carbonate pump (10 years for the globally integrated signal and 9–18 years for regionally integrated signals) and the invasion flux of anthropogenic CO2 into the ocean (14 years globally and 13–26 years regionally). Processes sensitive to the ocean’s physical state, such as the soft-tissue pump, which depends on nutrients supplied through circulation, emerge decades later (23 years globally and 27–85 years regionally).

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Recent pace of change in human impact on the world’s ocean

Published 19 August 2019 Science Closed
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Humans interact with the oceans in diverse and profound ways. The scope, magnitude, footprint and ultimate cumulative impacts of human activities can threaten ocean ecosystems and have changed over time, resulting in new challenges and threats to marine ecosystems. A fundamental gap in understanding how humanity is affecting the oceans is our limited knowledge about the pace of change in cumulative impact on ocean ecosystems from expanding human activities – and the patterns, locations and drivers of most significant change. To help address this, we combined high resolution, annual data on the intensity of 14 human stressors and their impact on 21 marine ecosystems over 11 years (2003–2013) to assess pace of change in cumulative impacts on global oceans, where and how much that pace differs across the ocean, and which stressors and their impacts contribute most to those changes. We found that most of the ocean (59%) is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particular due to climate change but also from fishing, land-based pollution and shipping. Nearly all countries saw increases in cumulative impacts in their coastal waters, as did all ecosystems, with coral reefs, seagrasses and mangroves at most risk. Mitigation of stressors most contributing to increases in overall cumulative impacts is urgently needed to sustain healthy oceans.

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Marine carbonate factories: a global model of carbonate platform distribution

Published 2 August 2019 Science Closed
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Platform carbonates are a major component of the Earth system, but their spatial distribution through geological times is difficult to reconstruct, due to the incompleteness of geological records, sampling heterogeneity, and their intrinsic complexity. Beyond this complexity, carbonates are not randomly distributed in the world oceans, neither in the modern nor in the past, and thus, global trends exist. In the present review, we focus on the understanding of the spatial distribution of carbonate production at a global scale. We use a deterministic approach, which focuses on discriminating components, stratigraphic architectures, and environmental features to relate shallow-water carbonate production to oceanographic parameters. The work is based on extensive literature reviews on carbonate platforms. Ecological niche modelling coupled with deep-time general circulation models is used to calibrate a predictive tool of carbonate factory distribution. A carbonate factory function is set up that is based on sea-surface oceanographic parameters (temperature, salinity, and primary productivity). The model was tested using remote-sensing and in situ oceanographic data of Modern times, while outputs of paleoceanographic models are utilized for Lower Aptian (Cretaceous) modelling. The approach allows determining four neritic carbonate factories that are called the marine biochemical, photozoan, photo-C-, and heterozoan factories. The model finely simulates the global distribution of Lower Aptian and Modern carbonate platforms. Carbonate factories appear to thrive for specific ranges along the environmental gradient of carbonate saturation. This conceptual scheme appears to be able to provide a simple, universal model of paleoclimatic zones of shallow-water marine carbonates.

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A model for integrating the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors on marine systems

Published 29 July 2019 Science Closed
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While much has been learnt about the impacts of specific stressors on individual marine organisms, considerable debate exists over the nature and impact of multiple simultaneous stressors on both individual species and marine ecosystems. We describe a modelling tool (OSIRIS) for integrating the effects of multiple simultaneous stressors. The model is relatively computationally light, and demonstrated using a coarse-grained, non-spatial and simplified representation of a temperate marine ecosystem. This version is capable of reproducing a wide range of dynamic responses.Results indicate the degree to which interactions are synergistic is crucial in determining sensitivity to forcing, particularly for the higher trophic levels, which can respond non-linearly to stronger forcing. Stronger synergistic interactions sensitize the system to variability in forcing, and combinations of stronger forcing, noise and synergies between effects are particularly potent. This work also underlines the significant potential risk incurred in treating stressors on ecosystems as individual and additive.

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Time‐of‐detection as a metric for prioritizing between climate observation quality, frequency, and duration

Published 22 March 2019 Science Closed
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We advance a simple framework based on “time‐of‐detection” for estimating the observational needs of studies assessing climate changes amidst natural variability, and apply it to several examples related to ocean acidification. This approach aims to connect the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network “weather” and “climate” data quality thresholds with a single dynamic threshold appropriate for a range of potential ocean signals and environments. A key implication of the framework is that measurement frequency can be as important as measurement accuracy, particularly in highly variable environments. Pragmatic cost‐benefit analyses based on this framework can be performed to quantitatively determine which observing strategy will accomplish a given detection goal soonest and resolve a signal with the greatest confidence, and to assess how the tradeoffs between measurement frequency and accuracy vary regionally.

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Insights from GO-SHIP hydrography data into the thermodynamic consistency of CO2 system measurements in seawater

Published 21 March 2019 Science Closed
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Highlights
• The thermodynamic consistency of CO2 system measurements was investigated.

• Errors in CO2 measurements are unlikely to be the main cause of inconsistencies.

• There are likely systematic errors in K1, K2, and the total boron-salinity ratio.

• An unaccounted source of alkalinity may be present in the open ocean.

Abstract
Due to advances in technology, routine seawater pH measurements of excellent repeatability are becoming increasingly common for studying the ocean CO2 system. However, the accuracy of pH measurements has come into question due to a widespread observation, from a large number of carefully calibrated state-of-the-art CO2 measurements on various cruises, of there being a significant pH-dependent discrepancy between pH that was measured spectrophotometrically and pH calculated from concurrent measurements of total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and total alkalinity (AT), using a thermodynamic model of seawater

acid-base systems. From an analysis of four recent GO-SHIP repeat hydrography datasets, we show that a combination of small systematic errors in the dissociation constants of carbonic acid (K1 and K2), the total boron-salinity ratio, and in CT and AT measurements are likely responsible for some, but not all of the observed pH-dependent discrepancy. The residual discrepancy can only be fully accounted for if there exists a small, but meaningful amount (~4 μmol kg–1) of an unidentified and typically neglected contribution to measured AT, likely from organic bases, that is widespread in the open ocean. A combination of these errors could achieve consistency between measured and calculated pH, without requiring that any of the shipboard measurements be significantly in error. Future research should focus on establishing the existence of organic alkalinity in the open ocean and constraining the uncertainty in both CO2 measurements and in the constants used in CO2 calculations.

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The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007

Published 15 March 2019 Science Closed
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We quantify the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) over the period 1994 to 2007 by using observations from the global repeat hydrography program and contrasting them to observations from the 1990s. Using a linear regression–based method, we find a global increase in the anthropogenic CO2 inventory of 34 ± 4 petagrams of carbon (Pg C) between 1994 and 2007. This is equivalent to an average uptake rate of 2.6 ± 0.3 Pg C year−1 and represents 31 ± 4% of the global anthropogenic CO2 emissions over this period. Although this global ocean sink estimate is consistent with the expectation of the ocean uptake having increased in proportion to the rise in atmospheric CO2, substantial regional differences in storage rate are found, likely owing to climate variability–driven changes in ocean circulation.

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Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?

Published 11 March 2019 Science Closed
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We investigate the climate mitigation potential and collateral effects of direct injections of captured CO2 into the deep ocean as a possible means to close the gap between an intermediate CO2 emissions scenario and a specific temperature target, such as the 1.5 °C target aimed for by the Paris Agreement. For that purpose, a suite of approaches for controlling the amount of direct CO2 injections at 3000 m water depth are implemented in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity.

Following the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5, which is a medium mitigation CO2 emissions scenario, cumula-tive CO2 injections required to meet the 1.5 °C climate goal are found to be 390 Gt C by the year 2100 and 1562 Gt C at the end of simulations, by the year 3020. The latter includes a cumulative leakage of 602 Gt C that needs to be re-injected in order to sustain the targeted global mean temperature.

CaCO3 sediment and weathering feedbacks reduce the required CO2 injections that comply with the 1.5 °C target by about 13 % in 2100 and by about 11 % at the end of the simulation.

With respect to the injection-related impacts we find that average pH values in the surface ocean are increased by about 0.13 to 0.18 units, when compared to the control run. In the model, this results in significant increases in potential coral reef habi-tats, i.e., the volume of the global upper ocean (0 to 130 m depth) with omega aragonite > 3.4 and ocean temperatures be-tween 21 °C and 28 °C, compared to the control run. The potential benefits in the upper ocean come at the expense of strongly acidified water masses at depth, with maximum pH reductions of about −2.37 units, relative to preindustrial, in the vicinity of the injection sites. Overall, this study demonstrates that massive amounts of CO2 would need to be injected into the deep ocean in order to reach and maintain the 1.5 °C climate target in a medium mitigation scenario on a millennium timescale, and that there is a trade-off between injection-related reductions in atmospheric CO2 levels accompanied by reduced upper-ocean acidification and adverse effects on deep ocean chemistry, particularly near the injection sites.

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Saxitoxin and tetrodotoxin bioavailability increases in future oceans

Published 5 March 2019 Science Closed
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Increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are largely absorbed by the world’s oceans, decreasing surface water pH. In combination with increasing ocean temperatures, these changes have been identified as a major sustainability threat to future marine life. Interactions between marine organisms are known to depend on biomolecules, but the influence of oceanic pH on their bioavailability and functionality remains unexplored. Here we show that global change significantly impacts two ecological keystone molecules in the ocean, the paralytic toxins saxitoxin (STX) and tetrodotoxin (TTX). Increasing temperatures and declining pH increase the abundance of the toxic forms of these two neurotoxins in the water. Our geospatial global model highlights where this increased toxicity could intensify the devastating impact of harmful algal blooms on ecosystems in the future, for example through an increased incidence of paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). We also use these results to calculate future saxitoxin toxicity levels in Alaskan clams, Saxidomus gigantea, showing critical exceedance of limits save for consumption. Our findings for TTX and STX exemplarily highlight potential consequences of changing pH and temperature on chemicals dissolved in the sea. This reveals major implications not only for ecotoxicology, but also for chemical signals mediating species interactions such as foraging, reproduction, or predation in the ocean with unexplored consequences for ecosystem stability and ecosystem services.

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Carbonate dissolution enhanced by ocean stagnation and respiration at the onset of the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum

Published 28 February 2019 Science Closed
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The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum was a transient, carbon‐induced global warming event, considered the closest analog to ongoing climate change. Impacts of a decrease in deepwater formation during the onset of the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum suggested by proxy data on the carbon cycle are not yet fully understood. Using an Earth System Model, we find that changes in overturning circulation are key to reproduce the deoxygenation and carbonate dissolution record. Weakening of the Southern Ocean deepwater formation and enhancement of ocean stratification driven by warming cause an asymmetry in carbonate dissolution between the Atlantic and Pacific basins suggested by proxy data. Reduced ventilation results in accumulation of remineralization products (CO2 and nutrients) in intermediate waters, thereby lowering O2 and increasing CO2. As a result, carbonate dissolution is triggered throughout the water column, while the ocean surface remains supersaturated. Our findings contribute to understanding of the long‐term response of the carbon cycle to climate change.

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The role of calcification in carbonate compensation

Published 3 December 2018 Science Closed
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The long-term recovery of the oceans from present and past acidification is possible due to neutralization by the dissolution of biogenic CaCO3 in bottom sediments, that is, carbonate compensation. However, such chemical compensation is unable to account for all features of past acidification events, such as the enhanced accumulation of CaCO3 at deeper depths after acidification. This overdeepening of CaCO3 accumulation led to the idea that an increased supply of alkalinity to the oceans, via amplified weathering of continental rocks, must accompany chemical compensation. Here we discuss an alternative: that changes to calcification, a biological process dependent on environmental conditions, can enhance and modify chemical compensation and account for overdeepening. Using a simplified ocean box model with both constant and variable calcification, we show that even modest drops in calcification can lead to appreciable long-term alkalinity build-up in the oceans and, thus, create overdeepening; we term this latter effect biological compensation. The chemical and biological manifestations of compensation differ in terms of controls, timing and effects, which we illustrate with model results. To better predict oceanic evolution during the Anthropocene and improve the interpretation of the palaeoceanographic record, it is necessary to better understand biological compensation.

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