Forecasts of whether marine species can evolve fast enough to survive climate change rely largely on single-stage tolerance assays, tacitly assuming that tolerance measured at one developmental stage reflects adaptive capacity across the organism’s life cycle. We test this assumption in a common marine bivalve (Mercenaria mercenaria) and find that it fails in sign, not degree: larval and post-metamorphic tolerance to end-century ocean acidification are strongly negatively correlated (r = −0.53, 95% CI [−0.69, −0.33]) across family-level, pedigree-conditioned and animal model estimates, with pervasive rank reversals among the top performers of each stage. A multivariate analysis of the among-family covariance matrix G shows why: under acidification, 57% of the among-family variance collapses onto a single dominant axis that loads positively on every larval trait and negatively on every post-metamorphic trait, whereas under ambient conditions the same families show no cross-stage covariance at all. Acidification therefore does not merely depress performance—it reorganizes the genetic architecture into a cross-stage conflict. Under ramping RCP 8.5 forcing this conflict geometry dictates the direction—not merely the magnitude—of adaptation: only balanced multi-stage selection preserves family diversity, whereas single-stage selection systematically erodes the opposite axis. In complex life cycles, resilience is a geometric property of ontogeny that forecasts cannot compress into a single-stage without inverting the sign of the answer.
Song H., Shi T., Yang M., Liu X., Li Z., Shi P., Wu Y., Allam B., Jeffs A., Skelton B., & Zhang T., 2026. Tolerance measured at one developmental stage mispredicts climate resilience in an animal with a complex life cycle. PLoS biology 24(10): e3004079. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3004079. Article.
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