Significance
Coral reefs are exceptional ecosystems and support hundreds of millions of people around the world, yet they are under severe threat due to ocean warming and acidification. Reefs are predicted to collapse over the next few decades under these climate change stressors, with grave consequences for society. Contrary to predictions of near total destruction, this study shows that with effective climate change mitigation, coral reefs will continue to change, but global reef collapse may still be avoidable.
Abstract
Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (−0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, −0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse.
Jury C. P, Bahr K. D, Cros A. & Toonen R. J., 2024. Experimental coral reef communities transform yet persist under mitigated future ocean warming and acidification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121(45): e2407112121. doi: 10.1073/pnas.240711212. Article.
