Fisheries management under climate change in the Pacific Arctic Region faces profound uncertainties, particularly concerning the trajectory of environmental drivers and the biological responses of fish species to ocean acidification (OA), which affect both stock productivity and spatial distributions. Here, we employed the Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model to project century-scale changes in abundance, maximum catch potential, and species distributions for key commercial fish under two climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and two alternative assumptions about OA responses, namely without OA effect and with OA effect parameterized as increases in basal metabolic rate and elevated larval mortality. Fishing mortality was treated as a management control variable, and the minimax regret criterion was applied to select the fishing mortality strategy that minimizes the worst-case loss in landed value relative to the scenario-specific optimal strategy across all climate and OA response scenarios. Results indicate strong regional heterogeneity: southern LMEs (East Bering Sea, West Bering Sea, and Aleutians) experienced persistent declines in abundance and maximum catch potential, with negative responses to OA further amplifying reductions, whereas the northern LME (Northern Bering–Chukchi Seas) exhibited substantial gains. These poleward shifts were accompanied by increased spatial aggregation, highlighting that species are not only shifting northward but also becoming more spatially concentrated within suitable habitats. Assessments that ignore OA effects risk overestimating long-term yields and exposing fisheries to productivity and revenue losses. Precautionary reductions in fishing mortality consistently minimized long-term regret across most species and LMEs. These findings highlight the critical interplay between climate change, OA effects, and management decisions, providing a scientific basis for adaptive fisheries management in the rapidly changing Pacific Arctic Region.
Yang Z., Hu M. & Yang C., 2026. Navigating uncertainty in the Pacific Arctic region: toward adaptive fisheries management under climate change and ocean acidification impacts. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 36: 89. doi: 10.1007/s11160-026-10087-8. Article.
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