Coral reefs are highly diverse and productive ecosystems that provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including recreation, coastal protection, and marine biodiversity. Climate change impacts, including ocean warming and acidification, pose a significant threat to coral reefs and the ecosystem services they provide. The variability of these impacts underlines the need to develop more spatially explicit tools in coastal ecosystem management that integrate and assess potential ecological and socio-economic outcomes. To address this, a spatially explicit predictive ecological model is applied to project changes in coral reef cover, using downscaled data from Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios. Based on these projections, welfare impacts of changes in recreational value are estimated across different populations and landscapes. Cumulative welfare losses for Hawaiʻi residents range from $1.5 to $3.3 billion in 2024$ by 2100. Counterintuitively, cumulative welfare losses are higher under optimistic emissions scenarios, where coral reef degradation is less severe than higher emission scenarios, because more people will experience smaller ecological losses. The approach incorporates site-specific characteristics, income distribution, and projected regional population growth to connect ecological change with welfare outcomes. EJScreen is used to assess variation in welfare impacts, identifying disadvantaged communities based on demographic and environmental indicators such as poverty, minority status, and exposure to environmental risks. These findings can inform policy and resource allocation by supporting ecosystem management strategies that account for both ecological dynamics and community-level socio-economic conditions.
Mackenzie A. L., Dugstad A., Fezzi C., Perng L. & Oleson K., 2026. The economic impact of climate change on coral reef in the Main Hawaiian Islands. SSRN. Article.
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