Climate change is transforming the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) at an unprecedented pace. Sea ice is rapidly declining in extent, thickness, and age, with projections indicating an ice-free summer Arctic by mid-century, possibly earlier. This loss of ice amplifies warming, alters stratification and circulation, and accelerates ocean acidification—occurring up to four times faster than the global average—threatening calcifying organisms and ecosystem stability.
Biological impacts are profound: shifts in microbial and primary producer communities, reduced ice-associated biodiversity, and boreal species moving northward disrupt food webs. Benthic ecosystems show signs of long-term decline in biodiversity and organic carbon supply, while fish, seabirds, and marine mammals face habitat loss, changing prey availability, and new stressors such as increased predation and contaminants. Some species may benefit from enhanced productivity, but cumulative effects of warming, acidification, and ice loss remain uncertain. These changes interact with other pressures—pollution, invasive species, and human activities—creating complex, compounding stress on the CAO ecosystem. Knowledge gaps on tipping points and resilience underscore the urgent need for research on circulation, carbon dynamics, and species adaptation to inform conservation and management strategies.
Renner A. H. H., Chierici M., von Quillfeldt C. H., Speer L., Acquarone M., Bluhm B. A., Boehringer L., Dannheim J., Frie A. K., Flores H., Grebmeier J. M., Hasemann C., Hedges K., Johannesen E., Jørgensen L. L., Kuletz K., Snoeijs Leijonmalm P., Mosbech A., Niehoff B., Schnier J., Soltwedel T., Ziegler A. & Werner K.-M., 2026. Climate assessment report for the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) [Suppl. to ICES Scientific Reports 8(25)], ICES Scientific Reports. ICES, Copenhagen. Report.
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