After examining the current state of knowledge about ocean acidification in Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, we model the socio-economic impacts of disasters, ocean acidification and ecological risk. We use Extreme Value Theory and Peak Over Threshold concept to define the critical threshold point for ocean pH value as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, initially with Gaussian noise. We define the benchmark pH based on time series observations which exhibit moderate to large variations and use Monte Carlo simulations and also model non-Gaussian cases to examine the probability of disasters.
Hilmi N., Safa A., Planas-Bielsa V., Kadmiri Y. & Cinar M., 2017. Ocean acidification in the Middle East and North African region. Region et Developpement 46: 43-57. Article.