Climate change will continue to alter key physical and biological oceanographic processes throughout the global ocean, modifying environmental conditions for U.S. highly migratory fish species found in the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Highly Migratory Species Climate Vulnerability Assessment evaluated the vulnerability of 58 species and stocks to projected ocean conditions, using a combined qualitative and quantitative analysis of species sensitivity (physiological, ecological, and behavioral attributes) and estimated exposure to possible future ocean stressors. Key modeled environmental variables included bottom and sea surface temperature, sea surface oxygen, and ocean acidification (pH), whereas the most influential biological attributes considered were population growth rate, stock size, and stock status. We produced vulnerability rankings (i.e., low, moderate, high, and very high) based on biological attribute sensitivity and exposure to the environmental variables, and separate analyses including estimated ability of distributional shifts, predicted directional effects of climate change, certainty, and data quality scores for the species and stocks assessed, with exceptions for species with undetermined geographic distributions. Of the 58 species and stocks assessed, 4 had very high vulnerability to climate change, 14 had high vulnerability, 22 had moderate vulnerability, 6 had low vulnerability, and 12 could not be assigned a rank. The majority (n = 45) of species and stocks had high ability for distributional shifts in response to projected changes in climate. Further, directional effect results suggest that climate change impacts on the majority of species and stocks will be neutral, implying that these species have life history or behavioral traits that impart some level of resilience and adaptability to the impacts of climate change. These results provide information for use in ecosystem-based fisheries management, particularly for prioritization of vulnerable species and stocks in conservation activities and research endeavors.
Loughran T. C., Cudney J. L., Crear D. P., Crawford L. M., Curtis B. J., Gutierrez E. M., Hoffmayer E. R., McCandless C. T., Orbesen E. S., Keller B. A., Kerstetter D. W., Snodgrass D. J. G., Morrison W. E., Quinlan J. A., Griffis R. B. & Cooper P. W., 2025. A climate vulnerability assessment for US highly migratory fishes in the Atlantic Ocean. PLOS Climate 4(8): e0000530. doi: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000530. Article.
