Abstract
Compound extremes of temperature and acidity that extend over substantial fractions of the water column can be particularly damaging to marine organisms, as they experience not only additional stress by the potentially synergistic effects of these two stressors, but also a reduction in habitable vertical space. Here, we detect and analyze such column-compound extremes (CCX) in the Southern Ocean between 1980 and 2019, and characterize their duration, intensity, and spatial extent. To this end, we use daily output from a hindcast simulation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), coupled with the Biological Elemental Cycling (BEC) model. We first detect extremes in temperature and acidity ([]) within the top 300 m using a relative threshold of 95% and then identify CCX where conditions are extreme for both stressors for at least 50 m of the water column. When analyzed on a fixed baseline, positive trends in ocean warming and acidification caused CCX to last longer, intensify, and expand throughout the Southern Ocean. In the Antarctic zone, CCX expanded between 1980 and 2019 more than ten times in volume, lasted up to 120 days longer, and doubled in anomaly. Some of the largest and longest events occurred in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), covering more than 200,000 km2 and persisting for over 500 days. CCX in the Subantarctic and Northern zones quadrupled in volume and increased by more than 30% in anomaly. Across the Southern Ocean, the increasing occurrence of CCX exacerbates the risks to marine ecosystems from warming and acidification.
Plain Language Summary
Extreme heat events in the ocean, known as Marine HeatWaves (MHW), are becoming more common due to climate change. These events can be even more harmful when they occur at the same time as Ocean Acidity eXtreme (OAX) events, synergistically causing stress for marine life. In this study, we looked at how often these combined events in the upper ocean, called Column-Compound eXtremes (CCX), occurred in the Southern Ocean between 1980 and 2019. We used a numerical model simulation to investigate changes in CCX during the study period. Compared to conditions in 1980, we find that CCX in the Antarctic zone have expanded more than 10 times in volume and lasted up to 120 days longer. In addition, expansive and intense CCX are found in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), posing a threat to vulnerable ecosystems. These events covered more than 200,000 km2 and lasted more than 500 days. The increasing occurrence of CCX across the Southern Ocean exacerbates the risks to marine ecosystems arising from ocean warming and acidification.
Key Points
- In the Antarctic zone, Column-Compound eXtremes (CCX) occupied in 2019 relative to 1980 ten times more volume and doubled in anomaly
- Marine Protected Areas in the Ross Sea and Antarctic Peninsula are disproportionately affected by the largest, longest, most intense CCX
- More than 70% of surface marine heatwaves contain CCX in 2019, although up to 60% of CCX occur without any surface expression
Wong J., Münnich M. & Gruber N., 2025. Compound marine heatwaves and acidity extremes in the Southern Ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 39(10): e2025GB008630. doi: 10.1029/2025GB008630. Article.
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