Highlights
- The MLR models between pH, temperature and Cu toxicity were developed.
- The WQC of Cu for 2020, 2099-RCP2.6, 2099-RCP4.5, and 2099-RCP8.5 were derived.
- Cu in the Ocean of East China poses a moderate ecological risk.
- Ocean acidification and warming can increase the effects of Cu on marine organisms.
- Cu’s ecological risk in 2099 under RCP2.6 is significantly lower than that of RCP8.5.
Abstract
Copper (Cu) has sparked widespread global concern as one of the most hazardous metals to aquatic animals. Ocean acidification (OA) and warming (OW) are expected to alter copper’s bioavailability based on pH and temperature-sensitive effects; research on their effects on copper on marine organisms is still in its infancy. Therefore, under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we used the multiple linear regression-water quality criteria (MLR-WQC) method to assess the effects of OA and OW on the ecological risk posed by copper in the Ocean of East China (OEC), which includes the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea. The results showed that there was a positive correlation between temperature and copper toxicity, while there was a negative correlation between pH and copper toxicity. The short-term water quality criteria (WQC) values were 1.53, 1.41, 1.30 and 1.13 μg·L−1, while the long-term WQC values were 0.58, 0.48, 0.40 and 0.29 μg·L−1 for 2020, 2099-RCP2.6, 2099-RCP4.5 and 2099-RCP8.5, respectively. Cu in the OEC poses a moderate ecological risk. Under the current copper exposure situation, strict intervention (RCP2.6) only increases the ecological risk of copper exposure by 20 %, and no intervention (RCP8.5) will increase the ecological risk of copper exposure by nearly double. The results indicate that intervention on carbon emissions can slow down the rate at which OA and OW worsen the damage copper poses to marine creatures. This study can provide valuable information for a comprehensive understanding of the combined impacts of climate change and copper on marine organisms.
Cui L., Cheng C., Li X., Gao X, Lv X., WangY., Zhang H. & Lei K., 2024. Comprehensive assessment of copper’s effect on marine organisms under ocean acidification and warming in the 21st century. Science of the Total Environment 927: 172145. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172145. Article (subscription required).
