Oceanographic physical and chemical processes underpin the functioning of marine ecosystems; changes to these marine environmental conditions due to human activity could significantly impact marine life. Monitoring and assessing these processes, and their interplay with biological systems provide insights into the current impacts of climate change and allow us to parameterise models which can help us understand what could happen to marine ecosystems under different climate scenarios. Currently, the monitoring and assessment of ocean climate change is not mandated under any EU legislation. Recent guidance from the European Commission has made recommendations on how Member States could consider climate change within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and paves the way for its potential inclusion in this Directive. This report explores how Ireland could integrate climate change into MSFD assessments through linking potential new and existing MSFD indicators with associated Essential Ocean Variables.
Systematic measurements of essential ocean variables underpin our understanding of ocean climate change and ocean acidification. Ireland monitors a number of essential ocean variables through fixed moorings, annual surveys, and sentinel sites. Data collected through these monitoring programmes are included in national, regional, and international assessments and reports, including the Global Carbon Budget. Ireland included thirty-four indicators in their Article 8 assessment in 2024 and current essential ocean variable monitoring data is used to assess some of these indicators. This provides an initial link between MSFD reporting and essential ocean variables and presents a starting point of how climate change could be integrated more in MSFD assessments.
A comprehensive literature review was undertaken on marine climate indicators (biological, chemical and physical) to develop a methodology to identify those which could be integrated into the MSFD. Criteria from the published literature were applied to the identified indicators to determine the scientific credibility of each indicator, the feasibility of implementation, public access, impact of using the indicator and the overall suitability of the indicator to represent a key climate change process. An initial list of one hundred and seventeen indicators was refined to twenty-nine (seven atmospheric, five physical, three chemical and fourteen biological) through the application of these criteria. Many of the final proposed list of indicators are highly impactful and could feasibly be monitored and assessed in an Irish context subject to appropriate resourcing.
Ocean warming, sea level change, altered stratification and sea state are recommended as highly feasible physical indicators due to sustained monitoring through fixed moorings and the annual Ocean Climate Survey. Ocean acidification and the CO2 system, eutrophication and oxygen concentrations are the chemical indicators recommended and all three are highly feasible due to the sustained monitoring programmes that are in place. Of the fourteen recommended biological indicators six are ranked as highly feasible. These six indicators predominantly relate to fish as fisheries sampling and resourcing in Ireland is quite high due to sustained monitoring for fish stock assessments. Phytoplankton abundance and diversity is also highly feasible due to long term coastal monitoring programmes. However, there is limited consistent and coherent datasets of offshore phytoplankton communities. Some indicators proposed in the final list are highly impactful but are not yet fully feasible due to a lack of data collection programmes. Altered ocean circulation was ranked as medium feasibility due to lack of resourcing, sustained monitoring and coherent datasets for ocean currents, particularly subsurface currents. Six biological indicators were ranked as medium feasibility due to lack of spatial coverage, coherent datasets and sustained monitoring programmes. This includes the lack of offshore benthic sampling and sustained monitoring programmes for marine mammals and seabirds. Two proposed indicators are highly impactful but are not yet fully feasible due to a lack of data collection programmes. There is no sustained monitoring program for the collection of zooplankton data in Irish waters representing a significant gap in biodiversity, pelagic habitats, commercial fish and food web assessments. Similarly, no monitoring takes places to monitor microbe biomass and diversity. These indicators should not be dismissed as their impact has been highlighted at a European level. Resourcing and funding to address the lack of data and understanding of these indicators should be explored and will not only aid our understanding of ocean climate change but will also develop our understanding of marine ecosystem functioning.
Levy A., Nolan G. & O’Sullivan D., 2024. Ocean climate change and ocean acidification indicators for Ireland’s marine strategy framework directive. Marine Institute, Galaway, Ireland. Report.
