Similar to weather forecasts for the atmosphere, numerical models can also be used to forecast ocean conditions. Since the ocean changes more slowly, particularly below the surface, forecasts of ocean conditions can be made for multiple months out. These forecasts can be helpful for marine resource managers by providing early warning of anomalous events, such as marine heatwaves or more acidic ocean conditions.
A new study, focused on the Bering Sea, tested an ocean model to see if it was capable of forecasting acidified bottom water conditions several months in advance. The cold and carbon rich waters of the Bering Sea make the region vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to the naturally low carbonate saturation states. Scientists assessed the ocean model by running a suite of reforecasts (retroactively forecasting previous years) and comparing to the conditions that did occur.
They found that the ocean forecasting model was skilled at predicting anomalies in bottom water pH on lead times up to nine months owing primarily to strong persistence. However, predictive skill for finer scale spatial anomalies was more limited and variable. They found that the model can be an effective tool to notify marine resource managers several months in advance of the expected development of relatively more acidic water conditions. This early warning can enable managers to make tactical decisions regarding upcoming fisheries quotas and assist rebuilding plans following fishery closures, such as the red king crab fishery that has faced recent closures and is threatened by OA.
Learn how NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory studies the ecosystems of the North Pacific Ocean, Bering Sea and U.S. Arctic to improve understanding of ecosystem dynamics and applies that understanding to the management of living marine resources by clicking here.
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