Climate change is increasingly disrupting freshwater ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa, posing severe threats to the reproductive success and population viability of key fish species. This study investigated the mechanistic effects of elevated temperature across a gradient and the combined impact of elevated temperature, acidification and hypoxia under a simulated future climate scenario (IPCC SSP5-8.5) on the reproductive physiology and early life stages of Clarias gariepinus in the Cross River Estuary. Single-stressor trials examined the effect of temperature (28–38°C) on oestrogen synthesis, cortisol levels and gonadosomatic index (GSI). A combined-stressor scenario (35°C, pH 6.2, dissolved oxygen 2 mg/L) was used to simulate predicted climate conditions. Each treatment was replicated across triplicate tanks, with 10 broodstock per tank, over an 8-week period. Environmental parameters were tightly controlled using aquarium heaters, aerators and pH regulators. Combined stressors markedly disrupted reproductive function. Oestrogen synthesis ceased at 34°C, coinciding with a sharp decline in GSI (r2 = 0.81, p < 0.001). Cortisol concentrations increased fourfold under concurrent heat and hypoxia. Cortisol concentrations increased fourfold under heat and hypoxia co-stress. Larval performance also declined sharply, with prey capture efficiency reduced by 33% at pH 6.0 and cumulative mortality reaching 82% by day 5 under combined-stressor conditions. Habitat suitability models projected a 71% reduction in spawning habitat availability in the estuary by 2070 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Genetic screening revealed a significant correlation (r2 = 0.63, p = 0.004) between heat shock protein 70 (HSP70) allele frequency and larval survival, indicating potential for adaptive resilience. These findings suggest a compounded vulnerability of C. gariepinus to climate-related stressors and highlight the potential need for targeted conservation efforts. Recommended interventions include habitat restoration, enhancement of dissolved oxygen regimes and selective breeding programmes to support thermal and hypoxic tolerance in vulnerable populations.
Famoofo O. O. & Ifon H. T., in press. Mechanistic drivers of climate-induced reproductive collapse in African catfish: multi-stressor interactions under IPCC scenarios. Journal of Fish Biology. Article (subscription required).
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