At the dawn of the millennium, a group of eminent scientists began compiling a list of the threats they felt were most likely to impact the world’s rocky shorelines over the coming quarter of a century.
Published in 2002, it included forecasts that – among other things – pollution from oil spills would decrease, the number of invasive species across the world would rise, genetically-modified organisms would have harmful effects on the ocean, and the impacts of global climate change would be felt more intensely.
Now, 25 years on, the same academics – along with a larger and more wide-ranging team of international experts – have revisited their forecasts and discovered that many of them were correct, either in whole or in part, while others haven’t had the impacts that were envisaged at the time.
They have also charted some of the other threats to have emerged and grown in significance since their original work, with notable examples including global plastic pollution, ocean acidification, extreme storms and weather, and light and noise pollution.
In doing so, they have also highlighted that while there are key issues they believe are likely to threaten the world’s coastlines between now and 2050, others may also emerge that require varying levels of local and global action to try and tackle them.
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What the scientists missed
- The impacts of coastal mining;
- Ocean acidification and its potential impact on marine species;
- The effects of artificial light pollution;
- The effects of noise pollution;
- Extreme flood and drought events;
- The scale and effects of plastic pollution;
- The impacts of pharmaceutical contamination;
- The combined effects of various environmental threats and chemical compounds.
The full study – Hawkins et al: Hindsight informs foresight: revisiting millennial forecasts of impacts and status of rocky shores in 2025 – is published in Marine Pollution Bulletin, DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2025.118214.
Alan Williams, University of Plymouth, 14 July 2025. Press release.
