Posts Tagged 'individualmodelling'

Nonlinearity, irreversibility, and surprise – managing Atlantic cod under climate change

Climate change is at the forefront of today’s global challenges with its potential to turn into a runaway process. Fishing pressure acts in concert and exacerbates the impacts of climate change. The North Atlantic Ocean is no exemption of the increasing anthropogenic stress with Atlantic cod, Gadus Morhua, one of its most prominent fish species, displaying the ocean’s state. Most Atlantic cod stocks have experienced high rates of fishing and biomass declines, leading to renovation of fishing regulations and the implementation of rebuilding strategies. Today, the cod stocks differ considerably in trends and commercial status with 8 stocks considered collapsed and 57 % of today’s landings supplied by one single stock, the North East Arctic cod. What drives the collapse and what drives the recovery of a stock? Elucidating drivers of Atlantic cod productivity at low abundance is inevitable for sustainably managing the species in its changing habitat. This thesis attempts a comprehensive study on climate change impacts by addressing rising ocean temperature (paper I-III), temperature variability (paper II), acidification (paper III) and uncertainty (of the biology and as risk in management under the precautionary approach [paper IV]). Individual and synergistic impacts of climate change are discussed with a particular focus on nonlinear dynamics, including the potential for Allee effects (paper I-III). Allee effects describe the decrease in per capita growth rate at small population size, which can hinder population recovery by reinforcing degradation. Such a shift in the underlying biology can be irreversible and demands proactive and precautionary management measures. Application of precautionary measures to protect the environment and manage risks in situations of high uncertainty is a central tenet of the “precautionary approach”, a guiding principle in fisheries management. The poor state of various commercial fish stocks worldwide stands in contrast to the precautionary approach and suggests a subordinate role of science in fisheries management. In paper IV, Canada’s fisheries policy and advisory process is contrasted with the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy in regard to the precautionary approach and the role of science, in order to identify policy and institutional constraints that have hindered sustainable, precautionary management practices. Drawing from insights on climate change driven productivity changes (paper I-III) and the importance of a policy and institutional framework that acknowledges these (paper IV), this thesis ends with suggestions for scientifically informed, precautionary and sustainable fisheries management practices that can speed up recovery and allow for a vital fishery in the future.

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Effects of triclosan exposure on the energy budget of Ruditapes philippinarum and R. decussatus under climate change scenarios

Highlights

  • Environmental triclosan levels alter the reproductive output of R. philippinarum.
  • Environmental triclosan levels reduce body mass in R. philippinarum.
  • R. decussatus growth was resilient to environmental changes.
  • Worst case scenario (TCS and climate change) will affect Manila clam production.

Abstract

We built a simulation model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory (DEB) to assess the growth and reproductive potential of the native European clam Ruditapes decussatus and the introduced Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum under current temperature and pH conditions in a Portuguese estuary and under those forecasted for the end of the 21st c. The climate change scenario RCP8.5 predicts temperature increase of 3 °C and a pH decrease of 0.4 units. The model was run under additional conditions of exposure to the emerging contaminant triclosan (TCS) and in the absence of this compound. The parameters of the DEB model were calibrated with the results of laboratory experiments complemented with data from the literature available for these two important commercial shellfish resources. For each species and experimental condition (eight combinations), we used data from the experiments to produce estimates for the key parameters controlling food intake flux, assimilation flux, somatic maintenance flux and energy at the initial simulation time. The results showed that the growth and reproductive potential of both species would be compromised under future climate conditions, but the effect of TCS exposure had a higher impact on the energy budget than forecasted temperature and pH variations. The egg production of R. philippinarum was projected to suffer a more marked reduction with exposure to TCS, regardless of the climatic factor, while the native R. decussatus appeared more resilient to environmental causes of stress. The results suggest a likely decrease in the rates of expansion of the introduced R. philippinarum in European waters, and negative effects on fisheries and aquaculture production of exposure to emerging contaminants (e.g., TCS) and climate change.

Continue reading ‘Effects of triclosan exposure on the energy budget of Ruditapes philippinarum and R. decussatus under climate change scenarios’

Online-coupling of widely-ranged timescales to model coral reef development

Highlights

  • A biophysical model framework for coral reef evolution is developed.
  • The model can be used to predict the coral response to the environment via process-based relations.
  • The model bridges the gap in timescales of processes from seconds to millennia.
  • Model predictions are within the accuracy of climate projections.
  • The model is an efficient tool for forecasting coral reef development to inform policy makers.

Abstract

The increasing pressure on Earth’s ecosystems due to climate change is becoming more and more evident and the impacts of climate change are especially visible on coral reefs. Understanding how climate change interacts with the physical environment of reefs to impact coral growth and reef development is critically important to predicting the persistence of reefs into the future. In this study, a biophysical model was developed including four environmental factors in a feedback loop with the coral’s biology: (1) light; (2) hydrodynamics; (3) temperature; and (4) pH. The submodels are online coupled, i.e. regularly exchanging information and feedbacks while the model runs. This ensures computational efficiency despite the widely-ranged timescales. The composed biophysical model provides a significant step forward in understanding the processes that modulate the evolution of coral reefs, as it is the first construction of a model in which the hydrodynamics are included in the feedback loop.

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Reviews and syntheses: spatial and temporal patterns in metabolic fluxes inform potential for seagrass to locally mitigate ocean acidification

As global change continues to progress, there is a growing interest in assessing any local levers that could be used to manage the social and ecological impacts of rising CO2 concentrations. While habitat conservation and restoration have been widely recognized for their role in carbon storage and sequestration at a global scale, the potential for managers to use vegetated habitats to mitigate CO2 concentrations at local scales in marine ecosystems facing the accelerating threat of ocean acidification (OA) has only recently garnered attention. Early studies have shown that submerged aquatic vegetation, such as seagrass beds, can locally draw down CO2 and raise seawater pH in the water column through photosynthesis, but empirical studies of local OA mitigation are still quite limited. Here, we leverage the extensive body of literature on seagrass community metabolism to highlight key considerations for local OA management through seagrass conservation or restoration. In particular, we synthesize the results from 62 studies reporting in situ rates of seagrass gross primary productivity, respiration, and/or net community productivity to highlight spatial and temporal variability in carbon fluxes. We illustrate that daytime net community production is positive overall, and similar across seasons and geographies. Full-day net community production rates, which illustrate the potential cumulative effect of seagrass beds on seawater biogeochemistry integrated over day and night, were also positive overall, but were higher in summer months in both tropical and temperate ecosystems. Although our analyses suggest seagrass meadows are generally autotrophic, the modeled effects on seawater pH are relatively small in magnitude. In addition, we illustrate that periods when full-day net community production is highest could be associated with lower nighttime pH and increased diurnal variability in seawater pCO2/pH. Finally, we highlight important areas for future research to inform the next steps for assessing the utility of this approach for management.

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OA-ICC HIGHLIGHTS

Ocean acidification in the IPCC AR5 WG II

OUP book


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